Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?

OpenOutcomes19as of

Market pricing makes Louisiana the favorite at 10% across 19 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Floridacbseveningnews93%match100¢
The first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season roared into Florida late Friday, unleashing destructive winds, extensive flooding and spinning up tornadoes across the Southeast. CBS News’ @JasonAllenLive reports on the damage.
FloridaRussian Media92%match97¢+3%
In the United States, more than 860,000 people were left without power due to Hurricane Isaias, The Guardian writes. As of 10:36 BST (12:36 Moscow time), 436,745 people were without power in Florida, 316,366 in Alabama, 87,334 in Georgia, 6,550 in Washington, 4,467 in California, 4,404 in Texas, 3,827 in Ohio, and 1,549 in Idaho. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the hurricane will reach the Tennessee River. Experts expect the heaviest damage to be recorded in southern Alabama, the Florida Peninsula, and southwest Georgia (regions may suffer from flooding caused by heavy rains). Landslides are possible in the southern Appalachians. X / FloridaPA27
FloridaRussian Media92%match97¢+3%
In the United States, more than 860,000 people were left without power due to Hurricane Isaias, The Guardian writes. As of 10:36 BST (12:36 Moscow time), 436,745 people were without power in Florida, 316,366 in Alabama, 87,334 in Georgia, 6,550 in Washington, 4,467 in California, 4,404 in Texas, 3,827 in Ohio, and 1,549 in Idaho. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the hurricane will reach the Tennessee River. Experts expect the heaviest damage to be recorded in southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and southwest Georgia (regions may suffer from flooding caused by heavy rains). Landslides are possible in the southern Appalachians. X / FloridaPA27 Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
Alabamacbsnews.com91%match
Live: Hurricane warning in effect for Alabama, Florida
Floridadbws.io91%match98¢+2%
Hurricane Isaias Makes Landfall in Florida -- WSJ
FloridaRussian Media93%match98¢+2%
Powerful Hurricane Isaias made landfall on the coast of Florida, leaving approximately 600,000 people without power. The epicenter of the storm was the resort town of Destin. Isaias made landfall near Destin, a resort town in northwest Florida known for its white beaches and tourist resorts. Sustained winds reached 169 km/h (105 mph). The storm brought heavy rains and the threat of widespread flooding. A flash flood warning was issued in Okaloosa County, where Destin is located. Authorities evacuated residents of the most vulnerable coastal areas. Across Florida and neighboring Alabama, approximately 600,000 customers were left without power. The final extent of the damage and the number of victims are being determined.
Floridaafp.com93%match98¢+2%
Hurricane Isaias makes landfall in Florida
FloridaXinhua94%match98¢+2%
Urgent: Hurricane Isaias makes landfall in U.S. Florida
Floridaafp.com92%match98¢+2%
Hurricane Isaias makes landfall in Florida: NHC
Floridacbseveningnews97%match
Hurricane Isaias, the first of the 2026 Atlantic season, strengthened to a Category 3 storm and is expected to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast – threatening parts of Mississippi, Alabama and the western part of the Florida Panhandle.
Alabamacbseveningnews97%match
Hurricane Isaias, the first of the 2026 Atlantic season, strengthened to a Category 3 storm and is expected to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast – threatening parts of Mississippi, Alabama and the western part of the Florida Panhandle.
Mississippicbseveningnews97%match8¢-50%
Hurricane Isaias, the first of the 2026 Atlantic season, strengthened to a Category 3 storm and is expected to make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast – threatening parts of Mississippi, Alabama and the western part of the Florida Panhandle.
Mississippinytimes.com92%match93¢+3%
Live: Mississippi largely dodged the hurricane, but not its economic fallout. A popular antique car festival was cut short, and downtown streets emptied as restaurants shuttered outdoor food booths. “Today is a bust, which is weird because the hurricane is nowhere near,” said Echo Bond, an Ocean Springs boutique owner.
Alabamanbcnews.com91%match
Live: After landfall, storm to move quickly inland into Alabama
Floridafoxnews91%match
Americans along the Gulf Coast are evacuating and preparing for Hurricane Isaias as the powerful Category 3 storm closes in, with a dangerous landfall expected tonight. • • Isaias is projected to come ashore between Gulf Shores, Alabama, and Destin, Florida. Category 3 hurricanes can cause “devastating damage,” according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. • • Some coastal areas could see 6 to 9 feet of storm surge, while parts of the Florida Panhandle could get up to 15 inches of rain. Damaging winds, widespread power outages, and tornadoes are also possible as the storm pushes inland. • • Get the latest updates on the storm from @foxweather :
Alabamafoxnews92%match
Americans along the Gulf Coast are evacuating and preparing for Hurricane Isaias as the powerful Category 3 storm closes in, with a dangerous landfall expected tonight. • • Isaias is projected to come ashore between Gulf Shores, Alabama, and Destin, Florida. Category 3 hurricanes can cause “devastating damage,” according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. • • Some coastal areas could see 6 to 9 feet of storm surge, while parts of the Florida Panhandle could get up to 15 inches of rain. Damaging winds, widespread power outages, and tornadoes are also possible as the storm pushes inland. • • Get the latest updates on the storm from @foxweather :
Floridafoxnews91%match
Americans along the Gulf Coast are evacuating and preparing for Hurricane Isaias as the powerful Category 3 storm closes in, with a dangerous landfall expected tonight. • • Isaias is projected to come ashore between Gulf Shores, Alabama, and Destin, Florida. Category 3 hurricanes can cause “devastating damage,” according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. • • Some coastal areas could see 6 to 9 feet of storm surge, while parts of the Florida Panhandle could get up to 15 inches of rain. Damaging winds, widespread power outages, and tornadoes are also possible as the storm pushes inland. • • Get the latest updates on the storm from Fox Weather:
Alabamafoxnews92%match
Americans along the Gulf Coast are evacuating and preparing for Hurricane Isaias as the powerful Category 3 storm closes in, with a dangerous landfall expected tonight. • • Isaias is projected to come ashore between Gulf Shores, Alabama, and Destin, Florida. Category 3 hurricanes can cause “devastating damage,” according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. • • Some coastal areas could see 6 to 9 feet of storm surge, while parts of the Florida Panhandle could get up to 15 inches of rain. Damaging winds, widespread power outages, and tornadoes are also possible as the storm pushes inland. • • Get the latest updates on the storm from Fox Weather:
Alabamanytimes.com92%match
Hurricane Isaias Tracker and Live Updates: Category 3 Storm Is Forecast to Make Landfall Along Alabama and Florida Coasts
USA: Hurricane Isaias is expected to hit the Gulf Coast of Florida, Alabama and Mississippi early on Oct. 10 local time. Heavy rain and winds could lead to flooding and landslides. State of emergency declared and evacuation orders issued locally in several areas. See
USA: Hurricane Isaias is expected to hit the Gulf Coast of Florida, Alabama and Mississippi early on Oct. 10 local time. Heavy rain and winds could lead to flooding and landslides. State of emergency declared and evacuation orders issued locally in several areas. See
USA: Hurricane Isaias is expected to hit the Gulf Coast of Florida, Alabama and Mississippi early on Oct. 10 local time. Heavy rain and winds could lead to flooding and landslides. State of emergency declared and evacuation orders issued locally in several areas. See
Floridanytimes.com91%match61¢+64%
Live: Officials have issued states of emergency in more than 60 counties in Alabama and Florida, and for the whole state of Georgia. There are mandatory evacuation orders along parts of the northwest Florida coasts, and visitors in parts of coastal Alabama are also required to leave.
Alabamanytimes.com93%match
Live: Officials have issued states of emergency in more than 60 counties in Alabama and Florida, and for the whole state of Georgia. There are mandatory evacuation orders along parts of the northwest Florida coasts, and visitors in parts of coastal Alabama are also required to leave.
Georgianytimes.com92%match8¢-87%
Live: Officials have issued states of emergency in more than 60 counties in Alabama and Florida, and for the whole state of Georgia. There are mandatory evacuation orders along parts of the northwest Florida coasts, and visitors in parts of coastal Alabama are also required to leave.
Alabamanytimes.com94%match
Live: On Thursday night, as the storm inched closer to land, watches and warnings for dangerous conditions were in place on a long stretch of the Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The most severe, a hurricane warning, covered most of the Alabama coastline, where weather forecasters expect the storm to come ashore late Friday or early Saturday morning. Wind and rain should pick up during the day on Friday, and are likely to last well into Saturday or even Sunday as the storm, though it is expected to be weakened by then, moves through the Southeast.
Floridacbseveningnews92%match
Hurricane Isaias, now a Cat 2, is expected to make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday, threatening parts of Mississippi, Alabama and the western part of the Florida Panhandle. Meteorologist @RobMarciano is tracking the storm.
Alabamacbseveningnews92%match
Hurricane Isaias, now a Cat 2, is expected to make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday, threatening parts of Mississippi, Alabama and the western part of the Florida Panhandle. Meteorologist @RobMarciano is tracking the storm.
Mississippicbseveningnews93%match15¢-73%
Hurricane Isaias, now a Cat 2, is expected to make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday, threatening parts of Mississippi, Alabama and the western part of the Florida Panhandle. Meteorologist @RobMarciano is tracking the storm.
Floridaalarabiya94%match
Hurricane Isaias threatens parts of Florida and Alabama with coastal flooding and heavy rain, prompting a state of emergency and mandatory evacuation orders in two counties in the Florida Panhandle.

What is this event about?

This market resolves based on whether a hurricane will make landfall in the state specified in the title between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A market resolves to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in that state within the timeframe, as described in official National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/); for Hawaii, NOAA Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) advisories also apply. Otherwise, that market resolves to "No". A hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL) and the NHC reports maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher (Category 1 or greater) at the time of landfall. The state of landfall is determined by the surface center's location when it crosses the coastline. If a single hurricane makes separate landfalls in more than one listed state, each such state resolves to "Yes". Hurricane season runs from June 1, 2026 - November 30, 2026. Each market resolves based on the initial NHC (or CPHC) advisory reporting a qualifying landfall in the relevant state, regardless of any later retraction or reanalysis. Each market may only resolve to "No" after November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or, if an extension period applies, after December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. If an active tropical cyclone at hurricane strength is over water per official NHC or CPHC advisories as of 11:59 PM ET on November 30, 2026, the relevant market(s) will operate under an extension period of 7 days, and the resolution date will move to December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; a qualifying landfall by that hurricane during the extension period will count toward resolution. If a qualifying landfall occurs within a market's timeframe (including any extension period) but has not yet been confirmed by an NHC or CPHC advisory by the resolution date, that market will remain open until such an advisory is issued.

Related events