Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?50+
ResolvedOutcome: No$2Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
11 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Live: Sixty vessels passed through Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, says US official
New: A U.S. defense official tells me approximately 60 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.
A US defense official told Al Jazeera that 60 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the largest daily volume of oil since early July.
Reuters: 60 tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours
US official: 60 commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz yesterday
#AlArabiya_Business
A US official told Reuters that approximately 60 commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.
Some 60 ships passed through Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, US official says
#Breaking | Reuters, citing a US official: 60 commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the largest daily amount of oil since early July
SOME 60 COMMERCIAL VESSELS TRANSITED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ ON WEDNESDAY CARRYING THE HIGHEST DAILY VOLUME OF CRUDE SINCE EARLY JULY, US DEFENSE OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS
YESReuters94%match3¢-100%
Some 60 Commercial Vessels Transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday Carrying the Highest Daily Volume of Crude Since Early July, US Defense Official Tells Reuters
HORMUZ CRISIS SENDS TANKER RATES ABOVE $1 MILLION A DAY • • Supertanker rates on the Persian Gulf-to-China route have surged to $1.035 million per day, nearly 5x pre-war levels, as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz collapses. • • Only 17 commodity vessels crossed over the weekend, versus roughly 125 large commercial vessels per day before the conflict.
Where does the news lean?
23YES4NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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