Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?20+

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$10KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

21 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

YESaljazeera.com91%match6¢-100%
Live: Sixty vessels passed through Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, says US official
YESNewsNation Reporter92%match6¢-100%
New: A U.S. defense official tells me approximately 60 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday.
YESiranintlbrk94%match6¢-100%
A US defense official told Al Jazeera that 60 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the largest daily shipment of oil since early July.
YESNews93%match6¢-100%
(Al Jazeera) A US defense official told Al Jazeera that 60 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the largest daily volume of oil since early July.
YESAl Jazeera93%match6¢-100%
A US defense official told Al Jazeera that 60 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the largest daily volume of oil since early July.
NOalarabiya94%match95¢+5%
Reuters: Number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz drops to less than 10
YESkommersant.ru93%match4¢-100%
Reuters: 60 tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours
YESalhadath97%match4¢-100%
A US official told Reuters: Approximately 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. A US official confirmed to Reuters that approximately 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. The US official told the agency that approximately 40 ships coordinated with the US military yesterday to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The US official added that the largest daily volume of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday since early July. The US official continued that approximately 60 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.
YESalarabiya97%match4¢-100%
A US official told Reuters: Approximately 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. A US official confirmed to Reuters that approximately 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. The US official told the agency that approximately 40 ships coordinated with the US military yesterday to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The US official added that the largest daily volume of crude oil passed through Hormuz yesterday since early July. The US official continued that approximately 60 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.
YESAl Arabiya93%match4¢-100%
A US official told Reuters that approximately 60 commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.
YESAsharq92%match4¢-100%
A US official told Reuters that approximately 40 ships that transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday coordinated with the US military for protection.
YESdbws.io93%match4¢-100%
Some 60 ships passed through Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, US official says
YESalarabytv95%match4¢-100%
#Breaking | Reuters, citing a US official: 60 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the largest daily volume of oil since early July 40 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday in coordination with the US military, which provided them with protection.
YESAl Araby92%match4¢-100%
Reuters, citing a US official: 40 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday in coordination with the US military, which provided them with protection.
YESAl Araby94%match4¢-100%
Reuters, citing a US official: 60 commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the largest daily amount of oil since early July.
YESalarabytv92%match4¢-100%
#Breaking | Reuters, citing a US official: 60 commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the largest daily amount of oil since early July
YESiranintlbrk97%match4¢-100%
About 60 commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the largest daily volume of crude oil since early July, a U.S. defense official told Reuters. About 40 of the ships that passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday coordinated with the U.S. military to receive protection.
YESSky News Arabia94%match4¢-100%
A US defense official told Reuters that about 60 commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the largest daily amount of oil since early July.
YESWalter Bloomberg94%match4¢-100%
SOME 60 COMMERCIAL VESSELS TRANSITED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ ON WEDNESDAY CARRYING THE HIGHEST DAILY VOLUME OF CRUDE SINCE EARLY JULY, US DEFENSE OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS
YESReuters94%match4¢-100%
Some 60 Commercial Vessels Transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday Carrying the Highest Daily Volume of Crude Since Early July, US Defense Official Tells Reuters
NOalarabiya96%match89¢+12%
Data: Number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz remains below ten Morning News

Where does the news lean?

24YES12NO3neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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