Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?10+
ResolvedOutcome: No$20Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
31 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Live: Sixty vessels passed through Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, says US official
YESNews93%match15¢-100%
(Al Jazeera) A US defense official told Al Jazeera that 60 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the largest daily volume of oil since early July.
A US defense official told Al Jazeera that 60 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the largest daily volume of oil since early July.
Preliminary ship tracking data released Friday showed the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to nine on Thursday, down from 14 the day before. The number of crossings was also lower than the 10-day average of about 18.
Reuters: 60 tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 24 hours
A US official told Reuters: Approximately 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. A US official confirmed to Reuters that approximately 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. The US official told the agency that approximately 40 ships coordinated with the US military yesterday to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The US official added that the largest daily volume of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday since early July. The US official continued that approximately 60 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.
A US official told Reuters: Approximately 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. A US official confirmed to Reuters that approximately 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. The US official told the agency that approximately 40 ships coordinated with the US military yesterday to transit the Strait of Hormuz. The US official added that the largest daily volume of crude oil passed through Hormuz yesterday since early July. The US official continued that approximately 60 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday.
A US official told Reuters that approximately 40 ships that transited the Strait of Hormuz yesterday coordinated with the US military for protection.
Some 60 ships passed through Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, US official says
#Breaking | Reuters, citing a US official:
60 commercial vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the largest daily volume of oil since early July
40 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday in coordination with the US military, which provided them with protection.
Reuters, citing a US official: 40 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday in coordination with the US military, which provided them with protection.
Reuters, citing a US official: 60 commercial vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the largest daily amount of oil since early July.
About 60 commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, carrying the largest daily volume of crude oil since early July, a U.S. defense official told Reuters. About 40 of the ships that passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday coordinated with the U.S. military to receive protection.
Shipping data: 10 cargo ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday
Reuters: 10 cargo ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, compared to an average of 17 transits over the past 10 days.
YESReuters97%match
Four Commodity Vessels Transit Strait of Hormuz on Thursday vs 10-Day Average of About 16, Data Shows
Data: Number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz remains below ten Morning News
Reuters: Ship tracking data shows the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz remains below 10.
Preliminary shipping data released Wednesday showed that the number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz remained in the single digits on Tuesday, at four, compared with seven the day before. That's significantly below the 10-day average of 18.
Strait of hormuz ship crossings remain in single digits, data shows
Live: Strait of Hormuz vessel transits fall to single digits over the weekend
Reuters: Ship traffic in the #Strait_of_Hormuz has reached single digits
Reuters: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to single digits The Reuters news agency reported today (Friday), citing initial ship tracking data, that ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has decreased to seven ships yesterday; this figure shows a significant decrease compared to the traffic of 11 ships on Wednesday and the average passage of 15 ships in 10 days.
#IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
Reuters: Vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz decreased to 7 yesterday Of these 7 vessels, two vessels left the Strait of Hormuz and 5 vessels entered the strait. This is while before the start of the war against Iran on March 30, about 125 large commercial vessels usually passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily.
Shipping data: Only 7 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, compared to 11 the previous day.
Initial ship tracking data released Friday showed that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to seven on Thursday from 11 the previous day. Of the seven vessels, two exited the Strait of Hormuz and five entered the waterway, according to the data.
Hormuz shipping traffic falls to single digits, data shows
Commercial vessels are stranded off the Iranian city of Bandar Abbas in Hormozgan province, awaiting the resumption of shipping traffic after Tehran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on August 12 following the tit-for-tat attacks with the United States.
Combined Maritime Information Center: 95 transits through the Strait of Hormuz facilitated by the U.S. Navy between September 6 and 9
Hormuz shipping traffic in single digits, data shows
Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council: The Strait of Hormuz is completely closed Today, a maximum of 7-8 ships pass through the strait, 5-6 of which import essential goods for us. Sometimes the Americans pass 5-6 ships through the rocks connected to Oman, and these ships are usually targeted.
Where does the news lean?
45YES46NO18neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.