US military action against CubaDecember 31

OpenVol$5.2MDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 14% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES14¢
NO86¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOIran Semi-Official Fars95%match81¢+6%
Trump backed away from the option of attacking Cuba? While there has been speculation in recent weeks about the possibility of the Trump administration taking military action against Cuba and attempting to change the country's regime, Bloomberg reported, citing informed sources, that Washington has currently replaced military action with economic pressure. This change in approach comes amid reports of the erosion of America's weapons and logistical capabilities after the war with Iran. Bloomberg wrote that Trump's previous plan for military action against Cuba has largely lost its credibility as the Iran war has dragged on. @Farsna - Link [in reply to: US Secretary of War's explicit threat: Military attack on Cuba is on the table Pete Hexath: If Cuba does not proceed in accordance with America's will, we will use the military option against the country. @Farsna - [Link]
NOIran Semi-Official Tasnim94%match81¢+6%
Trump backs off attack on Cuba! While some reports suggested that the Trump administration might take military action to change the Cuban regime, the erosion of America's military and logistical capabilities in the Iran war has apparently forced the White House to focus on sanctions against Havana instead of an attack. However, it is unclear whether the new strategy towards Cuba can lead to any progress after more than half a century of controversial economic sanctions. @TasnimNews [in reply to: US Secretary of War: Military attack on Cuba is on the table US Secretary of War: If Cuba does not proceed in accordance with Washington's will, we will use the military option against this country. As I have said before and I think you have seen what happened in other cases, all options are on the table, including military options. @TasnimNews]
YESmarketnews_feed98%match38¢-63%
BREAKING: US SENATE VOTES TO REJECT A RESOLUTION THAT WOULD BLOCK TRUMP FROM LAUNCHING A US MILITARY STRIKE ON CUBA, PER AP ...
YESdbws.io99%match38¢-63%
US Senate blocks bid to prevent Trump from military action against Cuba
YESaxios.com99%match38¢-63%
Senate rejects curb on Trump military action in Cuba
NOtelegraph.co.uk98%match62¢+39%
Cuba holds talks with US to avoid ‘confrontation’

Where does the news lean?

16YES4NO17neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

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