US forces enter Iran by..?December 31
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$22.0Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
14 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Iran says 4 army officers killed by US forces during pilot rescue mission
Odds U.S. forces enter Iran this month are surging • •
The US surged over 150 aircraft into Iran for a high-risk rescue and used deception to trick Iranian forces
How rescue of US airman in remote part of Iran unfolded
CBS: 365 US troops injured since the start of military operations against Iran
U.S. preparing for potential use of ground troops in Iran
Following reports that 2,500-5,000 Marines have been ordered to the Middle East and that the Trump Administration is considering a possible operation to seize Iran’s Kharg Island in the Northern Persian Gulf, chances that U.S. forces enter Iran have skyrocketed on Polymarket, with traders now predicting there is a near 70% chance that American troops will enter Iran by the end of 2026.
67% chance U.S. forces enter Iran this year • •
YESNewswire99%match56¢+79%
Odds U.S. forces enter Iran this year are almost 60% • •
NONews98%match44¢-100%
140 troops wounded so far in Iran war
NOosinttechnical98%match44¢-100%
CBSNews: U.S. intelligence assets have begun to see indications Iran is taking steps to deploy naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz.
YESdbnewswire98%match56¢+79%
*US INTEL SEES IRAN TAKING STEPS TO DEPLOY MINES IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ: CBS
YESNews98%match56¢+79%
*US INTEL SEES IRAN TAKING STEPS TO DEPLOY MINES IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ: CBS
NOajenews98%match45¢-100%
The chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff said he “respects” Iran’s resistance in the war but doesn't see its forces as stronger than anticipated. • • Speaking at the Pentagon, General Dan Caine said Iran's forces were “fighting”, but “not more formidable than what we thought.”
Where does the news lean?
15YES6NO6neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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See all outcomes for US forces enter Iran by..? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.