US forces enter Iran by..?
Resolved9as of
This hub tracks 9 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Iran says 4 army officers killed by US forces during pilot rescue mission
Odds U.S. forces enter Iran this month are surging • •
The US surged over 150 aircraft into Iran for a high-risk rescue and used deception to trick Iranian forces
99% chance U.S. forces enter Iran this month • •
Inside the daring mission to rescue a U.S. airman downed in Iran
How rescue of US airman in remote part of Iran unfolded
CBS: 365 US troops injured since the start of military operations against Iran
Ahead of the long weekend, the odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 rose from 50% before Trump's speech to 63%
Iran: Thousands of US paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division have arrived
Special Operations forces, Marines and Army troops now in Middle East, sources say
Polymarket Bets See Over 70% Chance of U.S. Forces Entering Iran in Next Month -- WSJ
US officials say US special operations forces personnel have arrived in the Middle East.
Live: Iran says it has 1mn-strong force to counter US ground invasion
U.S. preparing for potential use of ground troops in Iran
U.S. preparing for potential use of ground troops in Iran
Will US forces enter Iran by March the 31st? • Polymarket sees this at a 42 percent chance, in light of Iran closing the strait of Hormuz and the US military deploying 5000 Marines and amphibious vessels to the Middle East. • What do you think?
Will US forces enter Iran by March the 31st? • Polymarket sees this at a 42 percent chance, in light of Iran closing the strait of Hormuz and the US military deploying 5000 Marines and amphibious vessels to the Middle East. • What do you think?
Following reports that 2,500-5,000 Marines have been ordered to the Middle East and that the Trump Administration is considering a possible operation to seize Iran’s Kharg Island in the Northern Persian Gulf, chances that U.S. forces enter Iran have skyrocketed on Polymarket, with traders now predicting there is a near 70% chance that American troops will enter Iran by the end of 2026.
Following reports that 2,500-5,000 Marines have been ordered to the Middle East and that the Trump Administration is considering a possible operation to seize Iran’s Kharg Island in the Northern Persian Gulf, chances that U.S. forces enter Iran have skyrocketed on Polymarket, with traders now predicting there is a near 70% chance that American troops will enter Iran by the end of 2026.
Following reports that 2,500-5,000 Marines have been ordered to the Middle East and that the Trump Administration is considering a possible operation to seize Iran’s Kharg Island in the Northern Persian Gulf, chances that U.S. forces enter Iran have skyrocketed on Polymarket, with traders now predicting there is a near 70% chance that American troops will enter Iran by the end of 2026.
67% chance U.S. forces enter Iran this year • •
#BREAKING Odds on U.S forces entering Iran by December 31st is up to almost 60%. • • People are realising the only way for the U.S to achieve its goals is through a direct ground attack
US digs in on Iran campaign
US digs in on Iran campaign
Large US special ops force needed on ground to seize Iran's uranium, experts say
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.