US announces end of Iranian blockadeSeptember 30

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Odds now

The market prices a 22% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES22¢
NO79¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

46 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOUkrainian Media95%match59¢+32%
The US is not planning new strikes on Iran yet and will rely on a naval blockade and sanctions, — Axios Secretary of State Marco Rubio told representatives of several allied countries that Washington does not plan to resume large-scale military operations against Iran "yet". Instead, the US will focus on a naval blockade, new sanctions and transporting as much oil as possible through the Strait of Hormuz to the world market. According to US officials, the US Navy has cleared most of the strait of mines, and more and more tankers are passing through it via its southern route. Washington believes that this has significantly weakened Tehran's influence on the global energy market. The Iranians have lost control of the strait. Now the US controls it, — said one of the US officials. At the same time, Rubio did not rule out new strikes if Iran attacks first. According to Axios sources, the current course may be maintained at least until the end of the US midterm elections, after which a new military campaign may be considered again. American officials also claim that over the past two weeks, almost no tankers have been recorded near Kharg Island, the main center for Iranian oil exports. There are currently no negotiations with Tehran: Washington expects that economic pressure will force Iran to return to them. Let us recall that Donald Trump previously called the Strait of Hormuz "American territory" and expressed his optimism about agreements with Tehran and the further conclusion of an agreement. Add News.LIVE as a source of reliable news on Google
NOalarabiya91%match51¢+53%
A US official told Al Arabiya: There will be no talks with Iran... and the US is implementing the naval blockade in full force and effectiveness.
NOiranintl93%match61¢+28%
The United States began a new phase of maximum economic pressure against the Islamic Republic on Monday, September 2. Donald Trump described the economic crisis in Iran and the killing of protesters by the Islamic Republic as a “humanitarian crisis” and called for an immediate end to it. Mariam Rahmati, a correspondent for Iran International, discusses the importance of sanctions and new measures against the network linked to the National Bank of Iran.
NOskynewsarabia92%match67¢+16%
US Treasury Secretary: We will begin the largest financial blockade ever against #Iran - The United States will bring down Iran by imposing the harshest sanctions in history - The #Trump administration calls on Washington's allies and the rest of the world to stop doing business with Iran - Washington will use its full power against any entity that does not comply with the new sanctions #SocialSky
NOKan92%match73¢+7%
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it had diverted 67 commercial vessels, disabled three and seized two more as part of the naval blockade of Iran.
NOibtimes.com91%match72¢+8%
Trump Says U.S. Will Carry Out An 'Economic D-Day' Against Iran. Countries Dealing With Tehran Will Be Targeted Too.. • "These maniacs are on the ropes, and these HISTORIC MEASURES will cripple them and their ability to project terror worldwide," Trump added.
NO47news.jp92%match68¢+15%
US launches "economic war" against Iran; Trump warns supporting countries
NOBloomberg Reporter92%match68¢+15%
(Bloomberg) -- The US will begin what President Donald Trump said would be an unprecedented economic warfare operation against Iran, after faulting the country for failing to take its chance to make a deal with him.
NOalhadath93%match65¢+20%
Trump makes his stance on negotiations clear: no scheduled meetings with Iran, and the naval blockade continues.
NOaa_arabic93%match65¢+20%
US President Donald Trump: — There are no talks or negotiations currently underway or planned with Iran — The naval blockade against Iran is in full force and effect — The Strait of Hormuz is open and operational, and all sea mines have been removed or destroyed
NOalarabiya93%match65¢+20%
Trump: No negotiations with Iran, naval blockade continues 5 PM News Bulletin
NOJ.Post / i24 Reporter93%match69¢+13%
*US President Donald Trump:* There are no talks or discussions taking place, or planned, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The naval blockade remains in full effect. The Strait of Hormuz is open and operational. All naval mines have been removed or detonated. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
NOLebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed95%match69¢+13%
Trump: No negotiations with Iran, naval blockade continues
NOiranintl93%match69¢+13%
US President Donald Trump wrote on the Truth Social network on Tuesday, August 17: "There are no negotiations or talks with the Islamic Republic, and no negotiations or talks are planned." He added: "The naval blockade remains in full force, the Strait of Hormuz is open and active, and all naval mines have been collected or detonated."
NOalarabiya92%match69¢+13%
Trump: - The Strait of Hormuz is open and operating normally. - The naval blockade on Iran is strong and effective.
NOSky News Arabia93%match69¢+13%
Trump: The naval blockade on Iran remains in full force and effectiveness, and the Strait of Hormuz is open and operating normally.
NOAxios Reporter92%match69¢+13%
Trump: There are no talks or discussions taking place, or planned, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The naval blockade remains in full effect. The Strait of Hormuz is open and operational. All naval mines have been removed or detonated. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
NOaa_arabic96%match63¢+24%
US President Donald Trump announces his categorical rejection of extending the framework agreement signed with Iran for an additional 60 days after its expiration. Trump explained that the negotiations did not reach the point Washington wanted regarding the terms of the nuclear program and the sanctions. 🏻 It is worth noting that the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz on June 18, 2026, which granted a negotiating period that supposedly ended today, Monday. Trump claims that the United States is in complete control of the Strait of Hormuz and that the naval blockade imposed on Iranian ports is working very well.
NOaa_arabic94%match63¢+24%
US President Donald Trump announces his categorical rejection of extending the framework agreement signed with Iran for an additional 60 days after its expiration. Trump explained that the negotiations did not reach the point Washington wanted regarding the terms of the nuclear program and the sanctions. 🏻 It is worth noting that the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding on freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz on June 18, which granted a negotiating period that supposedly ended today, Monday. Trump claims that the United States is in complete control of the Strait of Hormuz and that the naval blockade imposed on Iranian ports is working very well.
NOalhadath92%match62¢+26%
Trump: I'm not seeking to extend the Memorandum of Understanding... and Iran hasn't made the deal I deem necessary. Trump: I'm not seeking to extend the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran. Iran wants to reach an agreement, but it hasn't made the deal I deem necessary. Our main objective is to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon... and it won't get one. We control the Strait of Hormuz with a naval blockade... and the passage remains open, and oil prices continue to fall. Iran can plant some mines in Hormuz, but the blockade is effective. Iran is in real trouble, and its economic situation is very bad. From the event
NOalarabiya91%match63¢+24%
Trump: I'm not seeking to extend the Memorandum of Understanding... and Iran hasn't made the deal I deem necessary. Trump: I'm not seeking to extend the Memorandum of Understanding with Iran. Iran wants to reach an agreement, but it hasn't made the deal I deem necessary. Our main goal is to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon... and it won't get one. We control the Strait of Hormuz with a naval blockade... and the passage remains open, and oil prices continue to fall. Iran could plant some mines in Hormuz, but the blockade is effective. Iran is in real trouble, and its economic situation is very bad. From Al Arabiya
NOIranian Media91%match61¢+28%
New claims from US Energy Secretary: The United States is taking a long-term approach towards Iran, our strategy is to impose a crippling economic blockade on Iran @IRIBNEWS_COM
NOJordan State Media92%match57¢+37%
Fox News quoted US President Donald Trump as saying that the United States would hit Iran economically hard, at a time when the two countries are facing significant difficulties in reaching an agreement to end the war that has been raging between them for nearly six months. Trump's remarks came a day after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bisent said that the United States would implement measures "like no one has ever seen before" against Tehran as early as next week.
NOcnbc94%match55¢+42%
The U.S. will be applying economic measures “that have never been seen on Iran,” according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. • • His statements come as U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reportedly said late Thursday that the U.S. military can keep a naval blockade of Iran going “indefinitely.” The Navy will rotate ships in and out “as we have, and we’ll continue to,” Hegseth told reporters. • • Media reports have said that the U.S. aircraft carrier USS George Washington was headed to replace the USS Abraham Lincoln, which has been deployed for more than 250 days in the Middle East and has been the subject of reports about poor conditions. Its deployment had been expected to end in May. • • Read more:
NOaa_arabic95%match54¢+44%
US Defense Secretary Pete Higseth says the United States could continue its naval blockade of Iran "indefinitely." Higseth made his remarks to reporters in Panama, according to the US Department of Defense.
NOzerohedge93%match56¢+39%
Top Overnight News • • The United States on Thursday said that it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely and would ratchet up economic pressure on Tehran as ceasefire talks have floundered, global oil supply is dropping and regional tensions are rising. RTRS • • China’s auto factories are building so many cars for export that the global shipping industry can’t keep up. Specialized car carriers, essentially floating parking garages, are booked out years ahead to export cars from Chinese factories. Rates to charter ships are up 65% this year on the surging demand to move vehicles out of China. WSJ • • Tariffs latest: The US is imposing a 100% duty on some imported drones and their components, a move that may significantly affect China. Australia said the US agreed to “consider full exemption or, at the very least, no increase” to the tariffs. BBG • • The BoJ is set to raise interest rates as soon as ‌September and is considering hiking more aggressively thereafter from the current pace of roughly twice a year, said three sources familiar with its thinking. RTRS • • Japan’s efforts to prop up the yen are creating fresh opportunities as investors return to carry trades — borrowing the low-yielding currency to buy higher-returning assets. BBG • • The US is pressing NATO allies to demonstrate support for Donald Trump’s policies, as it reviews potential troop cuts in Europe. BBG • • Ukraine has sent Russia an offer suggesting they both halt attacks ‌on civilian targets in the Black Sea, a source said, after mounting strikes on vessels and ports there raised fears over global food supplies. RTRS • • Leading US AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic are releasing cheaper models as they fight to retain cost-conscious customers who are switching to cut-price alternatives from Chinese rivals. The price war comes as rising AI bills push companies to curb usage and seek cheaper models, helping Chinese developers including Moonshot and DeepSeek make inroads with users from Silicon Valley to Europe. FT • • OpenAI is on track to generate annualized revenue of more than $40 billion based on its current performance, people familiar said. The ChatGPT maker’s revenue has accelerated in recent months. BBG • • Fitch affirmed the US at AA+, outlook stable, while it stated that the US rating is supported by a large economy, high per capita income, dynamic business environment and exceptional financing flexibility. However, it also commented that labour demand has weakened and job creation has dropped significantly in 2026, while it expects inflation to move towards the target by year-end 2028. • • US White House deputy national security adviser Andy Baker will leave the administration in coming weeks: Axios
NOdbws.io93%match47¢+66%
Oil steadies after US threatens to blockade Iran indefinitely
NOm.thepaper.cn94%match46¢+70%
US Defense Secretary: Naval blockade against Iran can be maintained indefinitely
NOiranintl93%match44¢+77%
US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said Washington intends to implement measures against the Iranian government that he said would be "unprecedented" in the history of economic isolation of a country. In an interview with Newsmax on Thursday, Besant announced that details of these measures would be released next week. He said the policy would include severe economic isolation and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which, according to Besant, would prevent any goods from entering or leaving Iranian ports. The US Treasury Secretary did not provide further details about the type of economic measures, the exact timing of their implementation, or the institutions and sectors targeted.
NOPolitico Reporter92%match41¢+90%
Despite the Trump administration’s hatred of “forever wars," Hegseth said today the Navy's blockade of Iran can go on “indefinitely, the United States Navy can maintain a blockade like that because we’ll rotate ships in and out, as we have, and we’ll continue to.”
US Defense Secretary says naval blockade of Iran could be imposed "indefinitely".
NOaljazeera.com92%match40¢+95%
Live: Hegseth says US can keep naval blockade on Iranian ports ‘indefinitely’
NOIran Semi-Official SNN93%match40¢+95%
FWD from SNN International: The absurd claim of the US Secretary of War: The US Navy can maintain the blockade of Iran as long as we need it Pete Hegsett, US Secretary of War on Terrorism: "The US Navy can maintain the blockade of Iran indefinitely as long as we need it, because we take turns in and out of ships and no other country on earth has the ability to have a steel wall like the US Navy." "Iran knows that it cannot enter or exit this blockade and it knows that there is no time limit on it; we will maintain it as long as we need it." Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snninternational
NOiranintl93%match40¢+95%
The Wall Street Journal reported, citing American officials, that the United States is preparing to send the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Middle East to replace the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln as part of a pre-determined plan for the relocation of ships. At the same time, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegsett announced that the country's military is capable of maintaining a naval blockade of the Islamic Republic's ports as long as necessary. Pete Hegsett emphasized in a conversation with reporters on Thursday that the US Navy can continue this blockade indefinitely. According to the US Secretary of Defense, Washington is managing this military campaign by rotating the presence of its warships in the region. He added that the US military will continue the process of moving and replacing warships as in the past to maintain pressure on the ports of the Islamic Republic. Read the rest of this report on the Iran International website
NOIran State News Agency92%match40¢+95%
Following failure on the battlefield; US claims to continue naval blockade Following Washington's failure on the battlefield and turning to a maximum pressure approach to achieve its excesses, the US Secretary of War claimed that the country's military is capable of continuing the naval blockade of Iranian ports "indefinitely." #IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
NOiranintl95%match38¢+105%
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegsett said on Thursday that the US military could maintain a blockade of Iranian ports for as long as necessary. “The US Navy can maintain such a blockade indefinitely because we will rotate the ships as we have done and we will continue to do so,” Hegsett told reporters. At the same time, the Wall Street Journal reported that the US is sending another aircraft carrier to the Middle East amid tensions over war with the Islamic Republic.
NOdbws.io94%match38¢+105%
US can keep naval blockade on Iranian ports “indefinitely,” Pentagon chief says
NOalarabiya93%match38¢+105%
US Defense Secretary: We will continue the blockade against Iran as long as necessary.
NOiranintlbrk94%match38¢+105%
The US Secretary of War said that the country could continue the blockade of Iranian ports for as long as necessary.
NOiranintlbrk94%match38¢+105%
The US Secretary of Defense said that the country can continue the blockade of Iranian ports for as long as necessary.
NOAl Arabiya93%match38¢+105%
US Defense Secretary: We will continue the blockade against Iran as long as necessary.
NOSky News Arabia94%match38¢+105%
US Defense Secretary: The United States can maintain the naval blockade on Iran as long as necessary.
NOLebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed94%match42¢+86%
US military: We diverted 59 commercial vessels and disabled 3 of them since the reimposition of the Iran blockade.
NOiranintl95%match10¢+680%
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on Wednesday on the social network X that as part of the naval blockade of Iranian ports until August 5, 48 commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz were forced to change course, two vessels were disabled, and two vessels were inspected. CENTCOM emphasized that the US will continue the naval blockade of Iran.
NOiranintl93%match11¢+609%
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on the social network X on Wednesday that as of August 5, 48 commercial vessels had changed their routes in the Strait of Hormuz, two vessels were disabled and two vessels were inspected. CENTCOM emphasized that the US will continue its naval blockade of Iran.
NOAsharq92%match9¢+767%
US military: We've diverted 46 ships since reimposing our blockade on Iran.

Where does the news lean?

36YES331NO23neutraltrailing 24h

Signal flow leans NO at 78% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.

What would make this resolve YES?

On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.

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