US announces end of Iranian blockadeSeptember 21
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Odds now
The market prices a 14% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES14¢
NO86¢
as of
What moved the odds?
21 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Live: Bessent: US military blockade, Operation Economic Outcast will ‘crush the failing Iranian economy’
White House: Iranian Economy in Collapse, Sanctions Crippling Regime, US Blockade Still in Effect ======= White House spokeswoman Caroline Levitt confirmed that sanctions are crippling the Iranian regime and its economy. "The Iranian economy is in collapse and is going through a catastrophic situation," Levitt told Fox News. Levitt stressed that the US naval blockade on Iran is still in effect and achieving great success. From Al Arabiya
NONews92%match74¢+16%
*LEAVITT ON IRAN: NAVAL BLOCKADE STAYS IN EFFECT
In a mission that will last at least 7 months, the US Navy is preparing to deploy the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt to continue the blockade of Iran.
On Wednesday, September 24, US President Donald Trump announced in an interview with Al Jazeera that there is no specific timetable for resuming negotiations with the Islamic Republic and that he is in no hurry to do so. The US President said: "Both US military strikes and economic pressure against the Islamic Republic are effective." He added that the US has achieved a great victory in the war and that Iran's economy is collapsing.
The US is not planning new strikes on Iran yet and will rely on a naval blockade and sanctions, — Axios Secretary of State Marco Rubio told representatives of several allied countries that Washington does not plan to resume large-scale military operations against Iran "yet". Instead, the US will focus on a naval blockade, new sanctions and transporting as much oil as possible through the Strait of Hormuz to the world market. According to US officials, the US Navy has cleared most of the strait of mines, and more and more tankers are passing through it via its southern route. Washington believes that this has significantly weakened Tehran's influence on the global energy market. The Iranians have lost control of the strait. Now the US controls it, — said one of the US officials. At the same time, Rubio did not rule out new strikes if Iran attacks first. According to Axios sources, the current course may be maintained at least until the end of the US midterm elections, after which a new military campaign may be considered again. American officials also claim that over the past two weeks, almost no tankers have been recorded near Kharg Island, the main center for Iranian oil exports. There are currently no negotiations with Tehran: Washington expects that economic pressure will force Iran to return to them. Let us recall that Donald Trump previously called the Strait of Hormuz "American territory" and expressed his optimism about agreements with Tehran and the further conclusion of an agreement. Add News.LIVE as a source of reliable news on Google
A US official told Al Arabiya: There will be no talks with Iran... and the US is implementing the naval blockade in full force and effectiveness.
NONews92%match70¢+23%
(Al Arabiya) A US official told Al Arabiya: The naval blockade against Iran is being fully and effectively implemented.
A US official told Al Arabiya: We are implementing the naval blockade on Iran with full force and effectiveness.
The United States began a new phase of maximum economic pressure against the Islamic Republic on Monday, September 2. Donald Trump described the economic crisis in Iran and the killing of protesters by the Islamic Republic as a “humanitarian crisis” and called for an immediate end to it. Mariam Rahmati, a correspondent for Iran International, discusses the importance of sanctions and new measures against the network linked to the National Bank of Iran.
The US Central Command, CENTCOM, announced that as of September 19, US forces had diverted 71 commercial vessels, disabled three, and boarded two vessels during the implementation of the Iran blockade.
CENTCOM added that more than 40 ships carrying humanitarian aid were also allowed to pass.
US Treasury Secretary: We will begin the largest financial blockade ever against #Iran
- The United States will bring down Iran by imposing the harshest sanctions in history
- The #Trump administration calls on Washington's allies and the rest of the world to stop doing business with Iran
- Washington will use its full power against any entity that does not comply with the new sanctions
#SocialSky
US Treasury Secretary: Today we begin the largest financial blockade ever imposed on Iran. Any country that provides a financial lifeline to Iran will share in its isolation. The financial isolation we will impose on Iran will obviate the need for the use of force. Trump has devastated the Iranian economy to an unprecedented degree. Any country that facilitates the flow of funds to Iran should consider the consequences. Countries that sever their financial and trade ties with Iran will revitalize their economies. Trump will respond swiftly and decisively if Iran attacks our forces or its Gulf neighbors.
Live: US forces redirect 70 vessels during reinstated naval blockade on Iranian ports
CENTCOM released a video of the guided-missile destroyer USS John Finn in the Arabian Sea, announcing that as of August 23, US forces had forced 70 commercial ships to change course, disabled three ships, and inspected two ships as part of the Iran blockade.
The US blockade on Iran widens... Dozens of ships change course as Washington tightens the noose on oil exports. #FromTheEvent
US military: 68 commercial ships diverted as part of US blockade of Iran
The US President has announced the start of the heaviest economic operation against the Islamic Republic, describing it as economic warfare and unprecedented isolation. Donald Trump has also threatened countries that help Iran circumvent economic pressure with severe consequences.
CENTCOM announced that US forces have so far diverted 65 commercial vessels, disabled three, and boarded two as part of the naval blockade of Iran.
CENTCOM added that the guided-missile destroyer USS John Paul Jones is deployed to the waters of the region to enforce the blockade.
The US military rerouted 65 ships and disabled 3 as part of the Iran blockade.
There are currently no ongoing or planned dialogues or negotiations with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The maritime blockade remains fully in effect and in good standing. The Strait of Hormuz remains open and allows normal passage. All mines have been cleared or detonated. Thank you for your attention! President Donald J. Trump
Where does the news lean?
1YES78NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 79% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
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