US announces end of Iranian blockadeOctober 31
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The market prices a 14% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
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NO86¢
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US military strikes and disables commercial cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman as it tried to violate Iran blockade after leaving an Iranian port
U.S. Central Command: U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces disabled a commercial cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman on October 10 after the ship's crew ignored repeated warnings and attempted to breach the ongoing naval blockade against Iran. A U.S. military fighter jet struck the stern of the Panamanian-flagged cargo ship Ocean Molica (also known as the Erica Sun) with a precision munition, disabling its propulsion system entirely. No crew members were injured. The large cargo ship was attempting to transit international waters after departing from an Iranian port.
Trump on Iran and the blockade: The US Navy is imposing a blockade that doesn't allow anyone to pass through... and the Italians might implement it better, but with much more force.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Basnett told Newsmax that the United Arab Emirates and Oman are cooperating with Washington in implementing a "total isolation" campaign, and that the US government is consulting with Pakistan and Turkey to close land routes into and out of Iran. He added that the Donald Trump administration has turned the "maximum pressure" campaign against the Islamic Republic into a "total isolation" campaign. According to him, this policy includes, in addition to financial restrictions, sea, air and land routes connecting Iran with the outside world. The US Treasury Secretary said that the US naval blockade and military measures are aimed at completely stopping Iran's oil exports, and flight restrictions have also been imposed to prevent travel by Islamic Republic officials and people close to the government.
Trump: US military will not strike Iran before US midterm elections on November 3 The US will not attack Iran before the midterm elections on November 3, US President Donald Trump said on Thursday. "I want to make the following clear to everyone: Iran is in a very difficult situation economically and militarily. As long as the blockade remains in full force, as long as oil is transported in record volumes through the Strait of Hormuz (last night alone - 22 million barrels, and not a single barrel of oil was exported from Iran and not a single barrel was imported), we will not attack Iran until the end of the US midterm elections on November 3," he wrote on the Truth Social social network.
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The United States will not attack Iran until after the midterm congressional elections on November 3, Donald Trump said. According to the American president, Washington is holding "productive discussions" with Tehran. Trump noted that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will remain in place. The American leader also reiterated that "Iran will not have nuclear weapons."
The United States will not attack Iran before the midterm elections in November if oil supplies continue through the Strait of Hormuz. Donald Trump announced this on the social network TruthSocial. The American president noted that Washington is conducting "productive discussions" with Tehran. According to him, Iran is in "very bad" economic and military condition. "As long as the blockade remains in full force, record barrels of oil will continue to flow through the Strait of Hormuz , we will not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections, which will take place in the United States on November 3," he wrote. RBK Channel on "Max"
Trump: We will not attack Iran at any time before the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3.
* Iran is in a very bad situation economically and militarily.
* The embargo on Iran will remain in full force.
* Oil flowed through the Strait of Hormuz in record quantities of 22 million barrels last night alone.
NONews97%match78¢+10%
URGENT: US blockade of Iranian ports will remain despite suspension of strikes - Trump
Trump: The embargo on Iran will remain in place and effective.
Trump: The US embargo on Iran will remain in place and effective.
Trump: The embargo on Iran will remain in full effect.
Trump's claim: "We are having constructive talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I want to make it very clear to everyone that, although Iran is in a very bad economic and military situation, and although the blockade will continue in full force and in full force, at the same time, oil is passing through the Strait of Hormuz at an unprecedented rate; 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait last night alone, without a single barrel belonging to Iran or going to Iran! We will not attack Iran at any time before the US midterm elections, which are scheduled to be held on November 3. Iran will not obtain a nuclear weapon!"/Election
Trump on Truth Social: We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I want to make it clear to everybody that, while Iran is in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily, and while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, with Oil flowing in Record Numbers of Barrels through the Hormuz Strait (22 Million Barrels, last night alone, with not one barrel coming from, or going to, Iran!), we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd. IRAN WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!
Trump on Truth Social: We are having productive talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I want to make it clear to everyone that even though Iran is in a very difficult situation, both economically and militarily, and even though the blockade remains in full force, with oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz in record quantities (22 million barrels last night alone, with not a single barrel coming from or going to Iran!), we will not attack Iran at any point before the midterm elections in the United States on November 3. Iran will not have nuclear weapons!
TRUMP RULES OUT STRIKES ON IRAN BEFORE NOVEMBER 3 ELECTIONS • • President Trump says the U.S. will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, citing productive discussions with Tehran. • • However, he insists the blockade of Iran will remain fully enforced, claiming 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz overnight, with none entering or leaving Iran. • • Trump reiterated that Iran will not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.
We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I want to make it clear to everybody that, while Iran is in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily, and while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, with Oil flowing in Record Numbers of Barrels through the Hormuz Strait (22 Million Barrels, last night alone, with not one barrel coming from, or going to, Iran!), we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd. IRAN WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON! President DONALD J. TRUMP
From the edition American source: "12 million barrels of oil pass through every day - why should we rush to an agreement?" Iran demands payment "in cash" even before the Strait of Hormuz is opened. 2 sources familiar with the details of the talks tell i24NEWS: "There was no major progress last week, even the mediators are discouraged by the Iranians and their demands." President Trump intends to continue the blockade - at the same time, the US military is preparing for the possibility of provocation from Iran
Trump: I now call on all nations to join us in imposing a complete economic blockade on Iran. This terrorist regime is behaving badly.
Millions of barrels of Iranian oil sit beyond Trump blockade as he vows ‘zero leakage’
Straits clash with no end in sight; both sides blockade, fighting subsides; US, at a standstill, expands sanctions; six months since the start of attacks on Iran
A US official told Al Arabiya: We are implementing the naval blockade on Iran with full force and effectiveness.
Trump was asked about the idea of declaring the Strait of Hormuz as American territory and replied: That's a great idea. We control it through the blockade. The blockade is effective. We take millions of barrels of oil out of there every week. The strait is open. Oil prices continue to fall. Iran is in big trouble. They have high inflation and their army is completely defeated.
Trump: - We control the Strait of Hormuz with a naval blockade. - Iran could plant some mines in Hormuz, but the blockade is effective. - The Strait of Hormuz remains open, and oil prices continue to fall.
"If the Islamic Republic attacks us, we will respond with 100 times more force," US President Donald Trump told Fox News. The US President added: "The US naval blockade continues to put new economic pressure on the Iranian regime, and the midterm elections have absolutely no impact on my thinking about the Islamic Republic."
Trump: The US naval blockade continues to exert new economic pressure on the Iranian regime.
Donald Trump: The US naval blockade continues to put new economic pressure on the Iranian regime.
Trump: The US naval blockade continues to exert new economic pressure on the Iranian regime.
Trump: The naval blockade on Iran continues and no ships will pass through unless we allow them to do so.
TOTAL CONTROL: President Trump says the U.S. naval blockade is in full effect in the Strait of Hormuz and is "a wall of steel." • • Sec. of War Pete Hegseth says the blockade can be maintained “indefinitely.” • • “We will rotate ships in and out as we have and we will continue to do that.” • • Jonathan Hunt tells @marthamaccallum on @TheStoryFNC that, as a result of that blockade, President Trump says the U.S. now has total control over the Strait of Hormuz and “there is nothing Iran can do about it.”
Trump says he will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz, and criticizes Iran for being powerless against a US blockade.
Trump: Everyone calls our naval blockade the "steel wall," and there's nothing Iran can do about it.
Trump: Our naval blockade is described by everyone as a “wall of steel,” and there’s nothing Iran can do about it.
Where does the news lean?
37YES430NO33neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 84% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
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