US announces end of Iranian blockadeNovember 30
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The market prices a 27% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
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US military strikes and disables commercial cargo vessel in the Gulf of Oman as it tried to violate Iran blockade after leaving an Iranian port
From Trump's claim of postponing attacks until after the election to sending American ships to the region Donald Trump has announced that the United States will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections and claimed that negotiations with Tehran are constructive. At the same time, he emphasized the continuation of economic pressure and the blockade and once again claimed that Iran will never obtain a nuclear weapon. These statements come at a time when reports have been published of the development of a three-day attack plan against Iran. The Wall Street Journal report indicates the movement of an aircraft carrier strike group and an expeditionary unit towards the Middle East. This synchrony has raised questions about the relationship between Washington's diplomatic messages and its military movements; However, military preparations alone do not mean a definitive decision to attack. Read the full text at the link below: @Nournews_IR
US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant announced that Washington will likely seize about $1 billion in crypto assets linked to the Islamic Republic by the end of the week. Besant said that the Donald Trump administration has turned the "maximum pressure" campaign against the Islamic Republic into a campaign of "total isolation". According to him, this policy, in addition to financial restrictions, also includes sea, air and land routes connecting Iran with the outside world. The US Treasury Secretary said that the United Arab Emirates and Oman are cooperating with Washington in implementing this policy, and the US government is consulting with Pakistan and Turkey to close land routes into and out of Iran. Basant also said that the US naval blockade and military measures are aimed at completely stopping Iran's oil exports, adding that flight restrictions have also been imposed to prevent travel by Islamic Republic officials and people close to the government. Basant said that the US actions have caused concern among members of the Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“I want to make it clear to everyone: Despite Iran’s very bad economic and military situation…we will not attack Iran at any time before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.” — President Donald J. Trump [President Trump posted on the Truth Social Network: We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I want to make it clear to everyone: Despite Iran’s very bad economic and military situation, the blockade will remain fully effective, and the record number of barrels of crude oil transported through the Strait of Hormuz (22 million barrels last night alone, and not a single barrel from or destined for Iran!), we will not attack Iran at any time before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Iran will not possess nuclear weapons! President Donald J. Trump]
Trump said on Thursday that the United States would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections, mentioning that negotiations with Tehran were "productive," but that the U.S. naval blockade of Iran "will remain fully in effect."
The US military is developing new plans to resume military action against Iran, The New York Times reports, citing sources. According to the newspaper, the options have already been discussed in the White House; national security officials are interested in conducting a short and intense campaign lasting about three days. At the same time, Donald Trump doubts the idea of resumpting the war, writes the NYT. Subscribe to Kommersant in MAX | in Telegram [in reply to: The United States will not attack Iran until the midterm congressional elections, which will take place on November 3, Donald Trump said. However, Washington will continue the blockade of Iran. Mr. Trump also stated that Iran "will not receive nuclear weapons." According to him, the United States is currently conducting "productive negotiations" with Tehran. Subscribe to Kommersant in MAX | in Telegram]
Pezeshkian: We exchanged proposals with America through intermediaries and made some amendments. ====== Pezeshkian: We exchanged proposals with America through intermediaries and made some amendments. Pezeshkian: We will meet with the intermediaries to finalize and confirm the proposal. US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that Washington is holding "constructive talks" with Tehran. Trump added that the United States will not attack Iran before the midterm elections on November 3. Trump confirmed that the blockade of Iran will continue "with full force" and that 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz last night alone.
The United States will not attack Iran until after the midterm congressional elections on November 3, Donald Trump said. According to the American president, Washington is holding "productive discussions" with Tehran. Trump noted that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will remain in place. The American leader also reiterated that "Iran will not have nuclear weapons."
Trump's post machine translation:
We are engaged in constructive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I want to make it clear to everyone that although Iran is in a very bad situation both economically and militarily, and although the blockade will remain in full force, while oil is passing through the Strait of Hormuz in unprecedented volumes (22 million barrels last night alone, without a single barrel coming from or going to Iran!), we will not attack Iran at any time before the midterm elections in the United States on November 3rd.
Iran will not have nuclear weapons!
Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America
realDonaldTrump @VahidOnline
Donald Trump said the United States will not attack Iran until after the midterm congressional elections on November 3. Washington will, however, continue its blockade of Iran. Donald Trump also stated that Iran "will not acquire nuclear weapons." He said the United States is currently conducting "productive negotiations" with Tehran. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
NONews97%match65¢+12%
URGENT: US blockade of Iranian ports will remain despite suspension of strikes - Trump
Trump: The embargo on Iran will remain in place and effective.
Trump: The US embargo on Iran will remain in place and effective.
Trump: The embargo on Iran will remain in full effect.
Trump's claim: "We are having constructive talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I want to make it very clear to everyone that, although Iran is in a very bad economic and military situation, and although the blockade will continue in full force and in full force, at the same time, oil is passing through the Strait of Hormuz at an unprecedented rate; 22 million barrels of oil passed through the Strait last night alone, without a single barrel belonging to Iran or going to Iran! We will not attack Iran at any time before the US midterm elections, which are scheduled to be held on November 3. Iran will not obtain a nuclear weapon!"/Election
Trump on Truth Social: We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I want to make it clear to everybody that, while Iran is in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily, and while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, with Oil flowing in Record Numbers of Barrels through the Hormuz Strait (22 Million Barrels, last night alone, with not one barrel coming from, or going to, Iran!), we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd. IRAN WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON!
Trump on Truth Social: We are having productive talks with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I want to make it clear to everyone that even though Iran is in a very difficult situation, both economically and militarily, and even though the blockade remains in full force, with oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz in record quantities (22 million barrels last night alone, with not a single barrel coming from or going to Iran!), we will not attack Iran at any point before the midterm elections in the United States on November 3. Iran will not have nuclear weapons!
Top story on Bloomberg tonight: • • Iranian officials have privately expressed pessimism about reaching a deal to end hostilities with the US and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the midterm elections in November, according to people familiar with the matter. • • Iran and the US made little progress during talks in New York at the United Nations General Assembly last week and Iran believes there’s a high chance of the conflict escalating after the Nov. 3 vote, according to the people, some of whom were briefed by Iranian officials. • • The main mediators are seeking something different from the Memorandum of Understanding signed by Iran and the US in mid-June. • • The US has told mediators it wants Iran to make firm commitments on reopening the strait this time around and to make concessions regarding its nuclear program, two of the people said. • • Iran officials have consistently said they are willing to pursue diplomacy but do not trust Donald Trump to abide by the terms of any agreement. The White House has similar feelings of distrust toward Tehran and Trump has previously said he doubts any deal can be reached before the midterms. • • There will not be a deal with Iran unless issues regarding the country’s nuclear program are addressed, according to one US official. Trump is willing to give Iran sanctions relief and release frozen funds in exchange for concrete progress on nuclear, the official said. • • With @FionamMacDonald @S_Elwardany @SamyAdghirni:
A US official told Al Jazeera: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is increasing, and the naval blockade and sanctions continue to undermine Iran's position.
From the edition American source: "12 million barrels of oil pass through every day - why should we rush to an agreement?" Iran demands payment "in cash" even before the Strait of Hormuz is opened. 2 sources familiar with the details of the talks tell i24NEWS: "There was no major progress last week, even the mediators are discouraged by the Iranians and their demands." President Trump intends to continue the blockade - at the same time, the US military is preparing for the possibility of provocation from Iran
The Wall Street Journal reported, citing US officials, that Trump has rejected the Islamic Republic's proposal for a seven-day ceasefire and has told his aides that he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterm elections. Under Tehran's proposal, the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened and nuclear talks would resume in exchange for the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports. Deshkian Juma told CBS News on Friday that if the US accepts the Islamic Republic's seven-day proposal regarding the Strait of Hormuz, its implementation process would begin immediately and the Iranian government's military forces would adhere to it.
Where does the news lean?
3YES135NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Signal flow leans NO at 83% — signal sentiment, not the market price. Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
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