US announces Cuba oil sanction reliefDecember 31
Open$130as of
Odds now
The market prices a 14% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES14¢
NO86¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Rubio places additional sanctions on Cuba, targeting ‘illicit’ shipping network The Trump administration announced another wave of sanctions against Cuba Thursday, targeting 10 individuals and entities tied to the country’s government, military and oil industry. The State Department accused Cuba’s “ruling elite” in its announcement of “hoarding the island’s energy, shipping, and technology resources for its own enrichment, leaving the Cuban people to contend with…
Where does the news lean?
0YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 91%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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