Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
Open$99Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 17% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES17¢
NO84¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOReuters99%match45¢+84%
Trump: I’m Not Sure I Want to Make a Deal with Them
YESReuters98%match58¢-71%
Rutte Says We’ll Make Sure Deal with Trump on Greenland is Implemented Step by Step
NATO summit: Denmark to Trump – Greenland is not for sale
Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen tells NBC News that many Greenlanders "don't feel safe" amid Trump's repeated push to take control of the semi-autonomous Danish territory. • • "Some have been scared. Now it's turning into — for a lot — turning into anger."
The U.S. is negotiating with Denmark to expand its presence in Greenland, seeking three more sites, including former bases at Narsarsuaq and Kangerlussuaq. Only one U.S. base is currently active. • • - NYT
NOReuters99%match37¢+124%
Trump: Not Sure We Are Willing to Make Deal
NOThe Wall Street Journal99%match25¢+232%
President Trump has stepped back from the brink on Greenland. Now the question is what happens next.
YESAcyn99%match73¢-77%
Banks: Trump has proven once again he's the best negotiator that we maybe ever had in the white house in moving us closer toward the deal that would give us a greater military presence in Greenland
YESBreaking91199%match70¢-76%
Trump on Greenland Deal: "We'll have something in two weeks."
NOBloomberg99%match30¢+177%
Trump says he’s making deals at a historic pace. But many of them turn out to be frameworks, handshakes or threats — with real risks for allies, markets and the US economy.
YESWarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match74¢-77%
Will the US acquire a part of Greenland in 2026?
Polymarket see this at a 27 percent chance, despite Trump recently stating that a framework of an agreement had been established and leaked reports concurring this. What do you think?
YESBloomberg99%match71¢-76%
The real work starts now to hash out details of Trump’s “framework” for Greenland after a deal in Davos.
YESReuters99%match65¢-74%
Trump touts 'total access' Greenland deal as NATO asks allies to step up
NOReuters98%match36¢+131%
EU leaders heaved a sigh of relief over Donald Trump's U-turn on Greenland as they met for an emergency summit in Brussels late on January 22
YESBenzinga98%match69¢-75%
Donald Trump said the U.S. has reached a “framework” for a long term deal involving Greenland. While details remain limited, early reporting suggests a security focused agreement rather than an outright transfer of control. According to Axios, the framework recognizes Denmark’s…
YESReuters99%match69¢-75%
Trump touts 'total access' Greenland deal as NATO asks allies to step up
YESCGTN Europe99%match71¢-76%
TRUMP ON GREENLAND FRAMEWORK DEAL: WE HAVE TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO DO EXACTLY WHAT WE WANT TO DO
YESCGTN America99%match71¢-76%
TRUMP ON GREENLAND FRAMEWORK DEAL: WE HAVE TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO DO EXACTLY WHAT WE WANT TO DO
YESFinancialJuice99%match71¢-76%
Trump on Greenland Framework Deal: There's a good spirit to get something done.
YESFinancialJuice99%match71¢-76%
Trump on Greenland: Will have something in two weeks
Where does the news lean?
27YES13NO19neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.
Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.
This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.
Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.