Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31?
Open1as of
Market pricing makes Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? the favorite at 16%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Trump: I’m Not Sure I Want to Make a Deal with Them
Live: Trump says Greenland ‘is a big problem’
Live: Greenland 'is very important for US, but not important for Denmark,' Trump says
Rutte Says We’ll Make Sure Deal with Trump on Greenland is Implemented Step by Step
NATO summit: Denmark to Trump – Greenland is not for sale
Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen tells NBC News that many Greenlanders "don't feel safe" amid Trump's repeated push to take control of the semi-autonomous Danish territory. • • "Some have been scared. Now it's turning into — for a lot — turning into anger."
The U.S. is negotiating with Denmark to expand its presence in Greenland, seeking three more sites, including former bases at Narsarsuaq and Kangerlussuaq. Only one U.S. base is currently active. • • - NYT
The United States is negotiating with Denmark for access to three additional bases in Greenland, The New York Times reports, citing sources. This includes the bases in Narsarsuaq and Kangerlussuaq, which were used by the United States during World War II and the Cold War and were later transferred to Denmark and Greenland. "Military planners are eyeing the towns of Narsarsuaq in the south of the island, which has a deep-water port, and Kangerlussuaq in southwest Greenland, which already has a long runway capable of handling large aircraft," the report says. As General Gregory Guillot, head of the US Northern Command, stated at a congressional hearing, the US military intends to expand its presence on the island, given the growing threats and strategic importance of the Arctic. The Pentagon emphasizes that it is acting within the framework of the 1951 US-Danish defense agreement. According to the publication's sources, Denmark can do little to hinder Washington. It is noted that, against the backdrop of news of Washington's desire to "take back" the island, anti-American sentiment is growing among the residents of Greenland. More IZ RU news in MAX
Trump: Deal will 'probably' be reached.
EU officials rightly worry that the Greenland risk may actually increase after Trump’s failure in Iran, as Greenland would, militarily if not politically, be an easier win and show of force for a president seeking to recover damaged credibility 1/2
Trump: Not Sure We Are Willing to Make Deal
Denmark's prime minister goes to Greenland in show of support amid Trump crisis
President Trump has stepped back from the brink on Greenland. Now the question is what happens next.
Banks: Trump has proven once again he's the best negotiator that we maybe ever had in the white house in moving us closer toward the deal that would give us a greater military presence in Greenland
Trump Touts "Total And Permanent" Access To Greenland, While Nobody Has Any Clue What's In The Deal
Trump on Greenland Deal: "We'll have something in two weeks."
Trump says he’s making deals at a historic pace. But many of them turn out to be frameworks, handshakes or threats — with real risks for allies, markets and the US economy.
Will the US acquire a part of Greenland in 2026?
Polymarket see this at a 27 percent chance, despite Trump recently stating that a framework of an agreement had been established and leaked reports concurring this. What do you think?
The real work starts now to hash out details of Trump’s “framework” for Greenland after a deal in Davos.
Trump touts 'total access' Greenland deal as NATO asks allies to step up
EU leaders heaved a sigh of relief over Donald Trump's U-turn on Greenland as they met for an emergency summit in Brussels late on January 22
Donald Trump said the U.S. has reached a “framework” for a long term deal involving Greenland. While details remain limited, early reporting suggests a security focused agreement rather than an outright transfer of control. According to Axios, the framework recognizes Denmark’s…
Reporter: On Greenland, we’re trying to understand what exactly the concept is. Trump: We’ll have something in two weeks.
Trump touts 'total access' Greenland deal as NATO asks allies to step up
Trump: we’ll have something on Greenland in 2 weeks
TRUMP ON GREENLAND FRAMEWORK DEAL: WE HAVE TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO DO EXACTLY WHAT WE WANT TO DO
TRUMP ON GREENLAND FRAMEWORK DEAL: THERE'S A GOOD SPIRIT TO GET SOMETHING DONE
TRUMP ON GREENLAND FRAMEWORK DEAL: WE HAVE TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO DO EXACTLY WHAT WE WANT TO DO
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources.
Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland.
This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered.
Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.