Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
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Market pricing makes Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? the favorite at 12%, as of .
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The IMF predicts an average oil price of $87 in 2027 and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in March. #Here_is_the_Kingdom
Fitch: Fitch’s Base Case is That Some Form of Durable Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Will Be Achieved in 1q27
(Al Jazeera) US Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs to Al Jazeera: Crude oil is passing through the Strait of Hormuz at a rate close to pre-war levels
The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization announced that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still about 75 percent lower than before the war began.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at its lowest level in two months... and oil prices rise. Shipping data showed that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in more than two months, after attacks on oil tankers passing through this vital waterway last week reached their highest level since the start of the US-Israeli war on Iran.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz drops to its lowest level in more than two months
Reuters: Ship transit in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a two-month low.
Trump: Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has exceeded pre-war levels.
Bloomberg quoted the CEO of Shell Energy as saying: “Oil flows from the Middle East have returned to more than 80 percent of pre-war levels. Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have increased, but they are not yet back to normal.”
Oil: Middle Eastern exports return to pre-war levels despite attacks in the Strait of Hormuz
Iran War: Why is so much oil getting through the Strait of Hormuz again?
LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have reached their highest level since the conflict began.
Is Iran losing its grip on Strait of Hormuz traffic? • • Saudi terminals in the Middle East Gulf loaded 3,911 kbpd of crude from 1 to 27 September, more than four times August (but still 39% below the January pre-war baseline of 6,385 kbpd). • • A "tanker shuttle" is moving Gulf crude through the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz under U.S. protection. Almost all involved are doing so with their AIS switched off. • • Windward MIOC assesses that Iran is less able to constrain southern-corridor traffic than it was in mid-summer. • • Read MIOC's full analysis: • • Crude flows data by @vortexa
US Secretary of State: The Strait of Hormuz is currently open and oil flows through it are approaching pre-conflict levels.
An energy market analyst told IRNA:
The situation of tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is not normal/Trump's statements are just a claim The deputy chairman of the Board of Directors of the Iranian Petroleum Industry Federation considered Trump's statements about the normality of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to be a claim and said: Geopolitical tensions and disruptions in transportation have affected the buying and selling and the price of oil, and it can be said that the conditions in this waterway are not normal. @IRNA_1313
No ships in Hormuz Strait Satellite images released of the Strait of Hormuz show no ships in the passage. This is despite Trump claiming that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Last weekend, only 5 ships passed through the Strait, and no crossings were recorded for Sunday.
Reuters: Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below 10-day average Reuters reported: Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below the 10-day average. Mizan on social media @mizanplus
Reuters: Shipping tracking data shows the number of cargo ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped below 10.
Live: Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic rises slightly but remains below average
Shipping traffic via Strait of Hormuz stays lower than 10-day average, data shows
Kpler Analytics: Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has declined to very limited levels
#AlArabyTV
The Strait of Hormuz is "choking"... a sharp decline in traffic amid fears of escalation
Oil and LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz hit a six-month high.
Oil and gas shipments through Strait of Hormuz hit six-month high •
Why has shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz declined over the past three days?
#AlArabyTV
FWD from Mehr International: 80% decrease in ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz Published maritime information indicates that only 3 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, and this figure reached five ships on Monday. Reuters also reported that the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on the previous day reached four. This is while the average number of these ships over the past 10 days was 18. This means that the Strait of Hormuz has witnessed a more than 80% decrease in ship traffic compared to the previous 10 days. mehrnews.com/x3d537 @MehrnewsIntl
Live: Strait of Hormuz vessel transits drop to four, data shows
US Vice President to New York Post: Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has returned to more than 50% of its normal levels
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.