Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
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Market pricing makes Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? the favorite at 30%, as of .
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Assaf Rosenzweig
The tanker tracking website TankerTrackers reports that in the past week, only 3.8 million barrels of oil left the Strait of Hormuz on average per day, while during the implementation period of the memorandum of understanding (over 25 days), an average of 9.8 million barrels of oil were exported per day. The website also reports that as of today, there are no Iranian oil exports, and all the oil that is exported is from other countries in the Gulf.
Al Arabiya correspondent Pierre Ghanem: The Strait of Hormuz is open to the US after being cleared of mines, and the number of tankers leaving the Arabian Gulf has risen to 20 per day. Trump is keen for countries to sever their trade and financial ties with Tehran to force it to meet his demands.
Al Jazeera: Average number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from 100 before the war to 7 per day/59% of US strategic reserves are empty mehrnews.com @Mehrnews
The International Maritime Organization report, citing tracking data, indicates limited and slow ship traffic and says that very few ships are returning to the Persian Gulf to receive new cargoes because many shipping companies are reluctant to return their large ships through the strait after removing them from the Persian Gulf.
Bloomberg claims: Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to about two-thirds of pre-war levels Total crude oil and oil product exports from the region have increased to 15 to 16 million barrels per day; but are still 7 to 8 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels / Selection
Ship Attack Amidst Hormuz Traffic Stagnation… Reopening Has a Long Way to Go
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic remains low amid US-Iran standoff
Economic expert Ahmed Aql: The breakthrough in the Strait of Hormuz opens the door for 20 million barrels of Gulf oil to enter the global market, which will change prices and lead to a positive situation in the international economy.
Six months since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz... Shipping traffic has declined by approximately 85%, from 95 to 15 ships daily, and thousands of sailors await safe passage through one of the world's most vital energy and trade arteries. #FromTheEvent
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic holds at low levels on Tuesday
Gulf ship traffic via Strait of Hormuz hovers below 10-day average, data shows
Iran, Oman reach agreement to temporarily reopen Strait of Hormuz
Gharibabadi: The southern route of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed; if our requirements are not met, the strait will remain closed Deputy Foreign Minister: The southern route of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed and this is an agreement. Oman agrees that this route will be closed and the matter will be reported to the International Maritime Organization. Negotiations between Iran and Oman for the future management of the Strait of Hormuz will begin, which will take up to 60 days to determine joint arrangements. If Iran's requirements are not met, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. [in reply to: Gharibabadi: The Strait of Hormuz will not open tomorrow; The new route is like a round-trip highway. The Deputy Foreign Minister explained the details of the understanding between Iran and Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing that this understanding does not mean the immediate opening of the strait tomorrow, and that these are two separate issues. For the past 58 years, ships have been passing through Omani waters, and Iran has suffered severe damage. The Strait of Hormuz is now a matter of national security for Iran, and fundamental changes must be made to the entry and exit routes. According to this understanding, the entry route to the Persian Gulf will be through Iranian waters and the exit route through Omani territorial waters, and ships will pass through Iranian waters on both routes. This route is "like a round-trip highway" with a total width of about 7 miles. The route is temporary, and Iran and Oman must negotiate a new permanent route within 30 to 60 days to replace the previous maritime traffic plan. Mizan on social networks @mizanplus]
At its lowest point in four months: only two ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared to 140 before the war.
At its lowest point in four months: only two ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, compared to 140 before the war.
Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz drops to its lowest level in 3 months Shipping data shows a decline in cargo traffic in the Strait of Hormuz over the past two days to its lowest level in 3 months Data from ship tracking company Kpler confirms that only one cargo ship transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday #From_the_Event
After the number of transiting vessels dropped from six to one, shipping data shows cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in three months.
The number of merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a new low in more than three months.
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic drops to single vessel on Monday
Reuters reports: Cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in over three months.
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in three months.
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level in 3 months
Commodity Vessel Transit Through Strait of Hormuz Falls to More Than Three-Month Low，Data Shows
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has declined by approximately 90% compared to pre-conflict levels. #AlArabiya_Business
Has Iran been blinded in the Strait of Hormuz after the recent strikes? A military-protected shipping lane is boosting oil traffic to levels close to pre-war levels.
New York Post: Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz weakens as shipping traffic surges by nearly 400% in two weeks under US protection ====== The New York Post reported that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz appears to be waning. The newspaper revealed that shipping traffic in this vital waterway has increased by nearly 400% in the past two weeks, coinciding with more ships using a transit route under US protection. The report revealed that approximately 200 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz last week, compared to about 150 the week before, and only 40 two weeks prior. Shipping traffic in the strait has reached about 20% of its pre-war level. Under normal circumstances, about 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. From Al Arabiya
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz skyrockets nearly 400%, as analysts say Iran's grip on critical waterway weakens
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic this week was 20% of pre-war average, though US says "oil is flowing"
International Maritime Organization rejects Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz is open The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization, rejecting Donald Trump's claim that the Strait of Hormuz is open, announced that this waterway is practically not open and safe for shipping due to the small number of ships passing through and the risk of attack, and the return of normal traffic requires the removal of threats. Read the full text in the link below... @Nournews_ir
UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 4% of pre-conflict levels. @iribnews
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.