Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreementOctober 31
Open$2.0Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO96¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Talks between US and Ukrainian representatives, scheduled to take place in Miami on October 9 and 10, were terminated early after Trump announced a "diesel deal" with Russia, the Financial Times reports, citing sources. Also, according to the newspaper, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner raised the possibility of stopping the transfer of intelligence to Kyiv if Ukraine "does not heed Washington's warning" about the need to stop attacks on Russian oil refineries. Yesterday's agreement between Russia and the US on large-scale diesel fuel supplies caught Zelenskyy off guard. In an interview with Axios, he called the deal "unfair and unfair." Later, a US official told Axios that Trump decided to negotiate with Putin on Russian diesel fuel supplies after Zelensky repeatedly ignored US requests to stop striking Russian oil refineries. To stay up to date with the latest news: Website | MAX | Telegram
The Kremlin has persuaded Washington to begin economic cooperation without resolving the war in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin informed Donald Trump that Russia was postponing the resumption of trilateral negotiations with the United States and Ukraine indefinitely, according to a late-night comment by Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov. Despite this, the American president announced an agreement with Moscow on Russian diesel fuel supplies, which Washington had agreed to ease sanctions for. Thus, the Trump administration has moved to implement economic projects with the Kremlin without waiting for a resolution to the war. This is precisely the approach Moscow has been seeking from the United States since the beginning of the American president's second term. Details: According to Ushakov, Putin informed Trump during a phone call that, following the airstrikes during the Russian elections in September, resuming trilateral negotiations was impossible in the near future. Quote: "It was particularly noted that while during the previous conversation between the presidents there was talk of resuming trilateral negotiations involving the US and Ukraine, resuming them immediately after the State Duma elections, the situation is different now. With its attempts to disrupt our elections by launching a massive drone strike on Moscow, other cities, and polling stations on the main voting day, targeting specific individuals associated with the election organization, the Kyiv regime has essentially thwarted the possibility of immediately resuming the negotiation process. And now, as the president said, we will consider when these negotiations can be resumed," Ushakov said. Despite this, after a conversation with Putin, Trump announced an agreement providing for the supply of Russian diesel fuel to the American and global markets. Thus, Washington agreed to sanctions relief without receiving publicly announced concessions from Moscow regarding Ukraine. The statement indicates that diesel fuel supplies were not the only economic project discussed by the two sides: "The leaders of the two countries discussed in detail the preparation of large-scale economic initiatives." As early as October 1, the Russian leader's press secretary expressed regret that the US continues to insist that economic cooperation can only resume after progress in negotiations. Background: The New York Times reported on September 18 that Washington might abandon its previous approach. According to the newspaper, the Trump administration was considering concluding economic agreements with Moscow before the war ended. On October 3, the NYT reported that Russian-American negotiations touched on a multi-billion-dollar deal involving Lukoil's foreign assets. Putin personally raised the issue at a meeting with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner on September 5. According to a NYT source, the Russian president proposed completing the deal to demonstrate to Russians the possibility of doing business with the United States. On October 8, Reuters reported that the possibility of attracting an American investor to the Nord Stream gas pipeline projects was discussed during negotiations between the United States and Russia. The current diesel deal is the first confirmation that Washington and Moscow have moved from words to action. How the White House explained the deal. The Trump administration, through a source told Axios, attributed its decision to enter into a diesel fuel supply agreement with Russia to Ukraine's refusal to cease attacks on Russian oil refineries, which, according to the White House, is driving up diesel prices in the US. Trump negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner briefed Ukrainians and Europeans on potential energy deals with Russia on Friday. They expressed hope that the deals would encourage Russia to make concessions in peace talks, Axios reports. Kyiv's reaction. In an interview with Axios, Zelensky said it came as a complete surprise, calling it "unfair and dishonest" and an unjustified gift to Putin. Subscribe to "Agency" on Telegram / email newsletter
Russia insists on prolonging the war and preventing progress towards a lasting peace. Spain stands with Ukraine. (2/2)
Russia pummels Ukraine with missiles and drones as ceasefire collapses
The ongoing Russian missile and drone attack across Ukraine also comes after a three-day ceasefire over last weekend which — as with brief armistices past — allowed Putin’s army to stockpile weapons and launch this major barrage.
Where does the news lean?
1YES7NO26neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
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