NATO/EU troops fighting in UkraineDecember 31, 2026
Open$153Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES5¢
NO95¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NATO Allies to Provide €70 Billion in Military Equipment, Assistance and Training in 2026 NATO Allies are united in their unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its freedom, sovereignty and territorial integrity. They will provide €70 billion in military equipment, assistance and training in 2026 and at least the same amount in 2027. Tens of thousands of Ukrainian service members have already participated in programs implemented by NATO Allies. The NATO Security Assistance and Training Initiative for Ukraine, or NSATU, is helping to coordinate these efforts as the war continues. Across the Alliance, Ukrainian service members are receiving training in a variety of areas: combat tactics, medical care, air defense. “Ukraine now has a single coordination mechanism for support. We have the capabilities, we have the expertise. Training, maintenance, equipment. And, of course, helping the Ukrainian forces by providing them with support so that they can focus on direct combat operations,” said Major General Mike Keller, Deputy Commander of the NATO Special Security Support and Training Mission for Ukraine (NSATU). Captain Petter from the Norwegian Armed Forces notes: “They are the ones fighting now, not us. We are doing absolutely everything we can to improve the level of training of the soldiers.” Video and text based on materials from the NATO Mission in Ukraine
Where does the news lean?
0YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia.
For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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