NATO downs another Russian droneSeptember 30

ResolvedOutcome: YesVol$26KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .

YES100¢
NO0¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

51 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

YESwelt.de93%match73¢+37%
Over Lithuania: Drone shot down by NATO fighter jets had explosives
YESsankei.com94%match71¢+41%
NATO aircraft shot down a drone that had entered Lithuania, the first such incident in the country; Italian Defense Minister speculates it may have originated in Russia.
YESapnews.com94%match77¢+30%
[UPDATE] NATO jets shoot down drone over Lithuania and Russian ship fires flares at Danish helicopter (first reported at 2026-09-15T08:17:25Z)
YESapnews.com94%match78¢+28%
Live: NATO jets down drone in Lithuanian airspace
YESapnews.com94%match75¢+33%
[UPDATE] NATO jets down drone over Lithuania and Russian ship fires flares at Danish helicopter (first reported at 2026-09-15T08:17:25Z)
YESfaz.net91%match74¢+35%
Drone shot down: 30 minutes over Lithuania
YESdpa.com92%match73¢+37%
Air raid alert over Lithuania: NATO fighter jets shoot down drone
YESapnews.com96%match79¢+27%
[UPDATE] NATO jets down drone over Lithuania after alliance warns strikes will drive support for Ukraine (first reported at 2026-09-15T08:17:25Z)
YEScbc.ca93%match79¢+27%
NATO fighter jet shoots down drone over Lithuania
YESeuractiv.com93%match79¢+27%
NATO shoots down drone over Lithuania as Denmark summons Russian envoy
YESnypost.com93%match74¢+35%
NATO jets down drone in Lithuanian airspace after bloc warns strikes will drive support for Ukraine
YESnbcnews.com92%match75¢+33%
NATO jets down drone over Lithuania; Russian frigate fires flares at Danish helicopter
YESEstonia's Foreign Minister92%match77¢+30%
NATO acted swiftly and decisively after a drone entered Lithuanian airspace overnight, with NATO fighter jets detecting and shooting it down. • • This is a clear demonstration of Allied readiness to defend NATO territory and a reminder that Russia’s war against Ukraine directly impacts the security of us all. • • NATO must remain vigilant, united and ready to defend every inch of Allied territory.
YESapnews.com93%match76¢+32%
NATO jets down drone in Lithuanian airspace after bloc warns strikes will drive support for Ukraine
YESvedomosti.ru94%match76¢+32%
A NATO fighter jet shot down a drone over Lithuania for the first time.
YESRussian Media95%match81¢+23%
NATO fighter jets shot down a UAV over Lithuania, local media reported, citing the National Crisis Management Center. The drone's wreckage is being collected, and the Skydas plan, which is used at accident sites when there is a risk of explosion, has been activated. There is also a high probability that the drone was armed with explosives, the report noted. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
YESlesechos.fr94%match81¢+23%
A drone shot down by NATO fighter jets over Lithuania
YESFrench Media94%match81¢+23%
What we know about the drone shot down over Lithuania by NATO aircraft
YESKan92%match81¢+23%
A NATO fighter jet intercepted a drone that had infiltrated Lithuania last night, the National Crisis Management Center in Vilnius reported. The drone, which apparently entered from Belarus, was shot down near the village of Partakunai in the south of the country, near Kaunas. @RamEliBrandts
YEStelegraph.co.uk93%match80¢+25%
Nato jets shoot down drone over Lithuania
YESalarabytv94%match77¢+30%
NATO shoots down drone over Lithuania
YESUkrinform Agency91%match77¢+30%
NATO fighters shot down a drone that violated Lithuanian airspace for the first time "Against the backdrop of increasing Russian aggression against Ukraine, such readiness is critically important for the entire region. Together with NATO allies, Lithuania will defend its airspace," said Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda. social networks Subscribe to Ukrinform | Facebook | X | YouTube
YESbfmtv.com93%match77¢+30%
A drone "violated Lithuanian airspace" before being shot down by NATO aircraft overnight.
YESfranceinfo.fr92%match77¢+30%
Live: #LITHUANIA "A drone that violated Lithuanian airspace last night was quickly shot down by NATO fighter jets," wrote the Lithuanian president on the social network X, without specifying which country it belonged to...
YEStheguardian.com92%match77¢+30%
Nato jets shoot down drone violating Lithuania’s airspace
YESmoney.udn.com92%match77¢+30%
Lithuanian airspace was violated by a drone; NATO warplanes scrambled and shot it down.
YESfrance24.com91%match77¢+30%
War in Ukraine: NATO fighter jets shoot down a drone over Lithuania
YESafp93%match77¢+30%
NATO fighter jets shot down a drone over Lithuania, the Baltic state's president says Tuesday, in the latest security incident on the alliance's eastern flank during Russia's war with Ukraine • •
YESafp.com95%match76¢+32%
Drone shot down by NATO over Lithuania
YESspiegel.de92%match76¢+32%
Russia-Ukraine War: NATO fighter jets shoot down drone over Lithuania
YESLithuanian Army92%match76¢+32%
NATO air defence responded—the threat was neutralised. At around 00:20, Italian fighter jets scrambled from Šiauliai and shot down an identified drone in Lithuanian airspace. Debris was found and the site secured. Thank you, Allies! #WeAreNATO
YESbild.de93%match77¢+30%
NATO fighter jets shoot down drone over Lithuania
YESskynewsarabia93%match77¢+30%
NATO fighter jets shoot down a drone over Lithuania #SkyOnline
YESleparisien.fr93%match77¢+30%
A drone that violated Lithuanian airspace was shot down by "NATO fighter jets"
YESafp.com93%match78¢+28%
Drone shot down by NATO over Lithuania: president
YESlefigaro.fr95%match78¢+28%
A drone shot down by NATO over Lithuania
YESIran Semi-Official SNN96%match75¢+33%
NATO shoots down a drone over Lithuania Lithuania's National Crisis Management Center announced that a NATO fighter jet shot down a drone in the European country on Tuesday morning. A spokesperson for the center said that the drone, which had probably entered Lithuania from Belarus, was shot down near a village near Kaunas, Lithuania's second largest city in the south of the country. Previously, a warning had been issued about the entry of a drone into the Lithuanian capital Vilnius and its surrounding areas. Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
YESlivesquawk92%match75¢+33%
Nato jets down drone that entered Lithuanian airspace
YESIran State News Agency96%match75¢+33%
NATO shoots down a drone over Lithuania Lithuania's National Crisis Management Center announced that a NATO fighter jet shot down a drone over the European country on Tuesday morning. #IRNA_World @IRNA_1313
YESbbc.co.uk92%match75¢+33%
Nato jets down drone that entered Lithuanian airspace
YESalhadath92%match77¢+30%
Lithuania: NATO fighter jet shot down a drone in our airspace
YESalarabiya92%match77¢+30%
Lithuania: NATO fighter jet shot down a drone in our airspace
YESRussian Media94%match78¢+28%
A NATO fighter jet intercepted a drone over Lithuania. Operations at Vilnius Airport were reportedly restricted. The drone's entry into the country was detected just after midnight. In response to the incident, NATO air policing fighter jets scrambled and destroyed the drone half an hour later. Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
YESUkrainian Public Broadcaster93%match78¢+28%
NATO fighters have shot down a drone in Lithuanian airspace for the first time. According to preliminary information, the drone may have entered the country from Belarus.
YESUkrainian Media92%match77¢+30%
NATO fighters shoot down UAV that violated Lithuanian airspace NATO fighters destroyed a drone that entered Lithuanian airspace, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said. "The drone that just entered Lithuanian airspace was destroyed by NATO fighters. I thank the Alliance personnel for the prompt response," he wrote in a tweet. ...
YESRussian state TV95%match77¢+30%
NATO fighter jets shot down a drone in Lithuanian airspace, the country's president announced. The drone's origin remains unknown.
YESUkrainian Media92%match76¢+32%
NATO fighters shot down a drone that flew into Lithuanian airspace, - Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda "A drone that had just entered Lithuanian airspace was destroyed by NATO fighters. I thank the personnel of the allies for their prompt response. In the context of increasing Russian aggression against Ukraine, such readiness is vital for our region. Together with our NATO allies, Lithuania will defend its airspace," he wrote. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.
YESOSINT93%match76¢+32%
This is the first time NATO jets have shot down a drone over Lithuania
YESiranintlbrk93%match
Lithuania's National Crisis Management Center announced that a NATO military fighter jet shot down a drone in Lithuanian airspace.
YESAsharq92%match
Lithuania: NATO fighter jet shoots down drone inside the country's airspace
YESReuters92%match33¢+203%
NATO Military Fighter Shot Down a Drone in Lithuanian Airspace -National Crisis Management Centre

Where does the news lean?

59YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a NATO military downs another Russian drone by any means (kinetic, jammer, etc.) between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM Kyiv Time. A “Russian drone” refers to any drone that, based on a consensus of credible reporting, was launched from territory under Russia’s de facto control or was operated or directed by Russian forces. Where attribution remains ambiguous, the drone’s model and characteristics will be considered supporting evidence. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying incident will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant incident, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the incident based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (CEST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the incident. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the incident, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.

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