Kharg Island no longer under Iranian controlAugust 31
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The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
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NO100¢
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15 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Two different tankers have loaded at Kharg Island's eastern berth in the past two days. • • The first entered port on August 21 and departed the morning of August 24. The second entered the night of August 23. Both transmitted AIS the whole time. • • The most recent arrival is using the fraudulent ship registry of Nicaragua. Until July 20 it was flagged to Iran under a different name before switching its identity. • • The other vessel, using the fraudulent ship registry of Guyana, executed a U-turn earlier today, likely due to blockade pressure from the U.S. • • It's highly unusual for these vessels to load with AIS on, most loadings go dark. This suggests defiance from Iran, with the use of fraudulent registries and stateless ships signaling a refusal to comply with basic maritime rules that underpin global seaborne trade.
Kharg Island's western terminal is loading again, for the first time in 25 days. • A dark VLCC-class tanker of approximately 333 meters, holding in the waiting area since July 11, is now berthed and loading. The eastern and LPG terminals remain empty. • • The bigger picture: North Larak absorbed 7 more hulls in two days, and Russia-to-Iran wet cargo through the Caspian is up 2.9x since the blockade escalation. • • Iran isn't waiting for the blockade to lift. It's rerouting around it. • • Full intelligence brief:
Tanker Trackers: A National Iranian Tanker Company supertanker, the Vialissi, is seen loading 2 million barrels of crude oil at the Azarpad dock on Iran's Kharg Island today (August 14, 2026). Although this is the first loading seen at the island since late July, Iran has continued to load tankers at other terminals. However, Iran's oil production is roughly in line with the processing of the country's refineries, meaning it may not need much to export. / Selected nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
TankerTrackers reported that a National Iranian Tanker Company supertanker was spotted loading two million barrels of crude oil at Azarpad pier on Kharg Island on Friday, August 13.
A National Iranian Tanker Company VLCC supertanker is seen today (2026-08-14) loading 2 million barrels of crude at the Azarpad jetty on Kharg Island, Iran. • • Although this is the first loading sighted at the island since the end of July, Iran has continued loading tankers at other terminals. That said, Iran’s oil production appears to be roughly in line with the country’s refinery runs (domestic consumption), meaning it may not need to export much. • • #OOTT #IranWar #Tankers
A National Iranian Tanker Company VLCC supertanker is seen today (2026-08-14) loading 2 million barrels of crude at the Azarpad jetty on Kharg Island, Iran. • • Although this is the first loading sighted at the island since the end of July, Iran has continued loading tankers at other terminals. That said, Iran’s oil production appears to be roughly in line with the country’s refinery runs (domestic consumption), meaning it may not need to export much. • • #OOTT #IranWar #Tankers
Kharg Island, day 22 of the standstill. • • Iran's crude export pipeline remains at a complete halt under the renewed U.S. naval blockade. • • All three Kharg terminals are empty: • Western terminal: empty 22 consecutive days (since July 18) • LPG terminal: empty 13 consecutive days (since July 27) • Eastern terminal: empty 10 consecutive days (since July 30) • • @vortexa trade data confirms zero departures from Kharg between July 31 and August 9. • • Meanwhile, the waiting area holds 17 dark stationary tankers — down one from 18 on August 5 — all transmitting no AIS. The pattern is consistent with a blockade-driven export halt: no loadings, no departures, and a dark queue that isn't moving. • • Track the situation daily:
Kharg Island, July 30. Only 1 of 3 terminals active. Satellite imagery shows the eastern oil terminal reactivated, with a dark Aframax-class tanker (~240m) now berthed after sitting empty since July 25. • • The LPG terminal has been empty since July 27. • The western terminal has sat idle for 12 days. • • A dark VLCC-class tanker (~330m) is now transiting northeast toward the waiting area, joining a queue of 16 tankers already stacked outside the port.
No explosion or fire has occurred on the island Special District Officer of Kharg: The news and images published on some channels and social networks that an explosion or fire occurred on Kharg Island are not true and such claims are strongly denied. The fire seen in some satellite images is related to flaring operations (burning excess gases) in oil facilities, which is a completely normal, controlled process and part of the ongoing operations of the oil and gas industries. No security incident or fire has occurred on the island, and all vital facilities and infrastructure on the island are in normal condition and activities are being carried out without any disruption. @ilnair
No explosion or fire has occurred on the island Special District Officer of Kharg: The news and images published on some channels and social networks that an explosion or fire occurred on Kharg Island are not true and such claims are strongly denied. The fire seen in some satellite images is related to flaring operations (burning excess gases) in oil facilities, which is a completely normal, controlled process and part of the ongoing operations of the oil and gas industries. No security incident or fire has occurred on the island, and all vital facilities and infrastructure on the island are in normal condition and activities are being carried out without any disruption./Mehr mehrnews.com/x3cDjb @mehrnews
Kharg is safe; Island evacuation denied Governor of Bushehr: Normal life is going on in Kharg and no order for evacuation has been issued In an interview with a Tasnim reporter, residents of Kharg Island spoke resolutely and firmly about defending this land and water, and announced that the sacrifices of Iran and the leadership are present on the ground on Kharg Island and they will not allow the enemies to invade this island.
Kharg is safe; Island evacuation denied Governor of Bushehr: Normal life is going on in Kharg and no order for evacuation has been issued. Earlier today, Tasnim's reporter reported in a field report from Kharg Island that people's daily life on the island was going on. In an interview with Tasnim, the residents of Kharg Island spoke very firmly and firmly about defending this land and water, and announced that the sacrifices of Iran and the leadership are present on the ground on Kharg Island and will not allow the enemies to invade this island.
@TasnimNews
Live: Iran denies reports of new attack on Kharg Island
We have not had an explosion in Kharg yet According to a Mehr reporter based on Kharg Island, the news published about the sound of an explosion in Kharg is not true and we have not had an explosion in Kharg yet mehrnews.com/x3cwHy @mehrnews
Iran's Mehr News Agency: Reports of explosions on Kharg Island are false.
Where does the news lean?
1YES18NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
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