Kharg Island no longer under Iranian controlJuly 31
ResolvedOutcome: No$6.3Mas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Kharg Island, July 30. Only 1 of 3 terminals active. Satellite imagery shows the eastern oil terminal reactivated, with a dark Aframax-class tanker (~240m) now berthed after sitting empty since July 25. • • The LPG terminal has been empty since July 27. • The western terminal has sat idle for 12 days. • • A dark VLCC-class tanker (~330m) is now transiting northeast toward the waiting area, joining a queue of 16 tankers already stacked outside the port.
No explosion or fire has occurred on the island Special District Officer of Kharg: The news and images published on some channels and social networks that an explosion or fire occurred on Kharg Island are not true and such claims are strongly denied. The fire seen in some satellite images is related to flaring operations (burning excess gases) in oil facilities, which is a completely normal, controlled process and part of the ongoing operations of the oil and gas industries. No security incident or fire has occurred on the island, and all vital facilities and infrastructure on the island are in normal condition and activities are being carried out without any disruption. @ilnair
No explosion or fire has occurred on the island Special District Officer of Kharg: The news and images published on some channels and social networks that an explosion or fire occurred on Kharg Island are not true and such claims are strongly denied. The fire seen in some satellite images is related to flaring operations (burning excess gases) in oil facilities, which is a completely normal, controlled process and part of the ongoing operations of the oil and gas industries. No security incident or fire has occurred on the island, and all vital facilities and infrastructure on the island are in normal condition and activities are being carried out without any disruption./Mehr mehrnews.com/x3cDjb @mehrnews
Kharg is safe; Island evacuation denied Governor of Bushehr: Normal life is going on in Kharg and no order for evacuation has been issued In an interview with a Tasnim reporter, residents of Kharg Island spoke resolutely and firmly about defending this land and water, and announced that the sacrifices of Iran and the leadership are present on the ground on Kharg Island and they will not allow the enemies to invade this island.
Bushehr Governor Mohammad Mozaffari told state news agency IRNA on Saturday, July 17, referring to the recent attacks on Khark Island, that no official order has been issued to evacuate the island and that “normal life” is taking place there.
Mozaffari added: “Currently, maritime traffic between Khark Island and the territorial waters of the Persian Gulf is carried out around the clock and according to normal procedures.”
The Bushehr Governor also said that there has been no disruption in the provision of public needs and services to government agencies.
Kharg is safe; Island evacuation denied Governor of Bushehr: Normal life is going on in Kharg and no order for evacuation has been issued. Earlier today, Tasnim's reporter reported in a field report from Kharg Island that people's daily life on the island was going on. In an interview with Tasnim, the residents of Kharg Island spoke very firmly and firmly about defending this land and water, and announced that the sacrifices of Iran and the leadership are present on the ground on Kharg Island and will not allow the enemies to invade this island.
@TasnimNews
Kharg Island, July 8, 05:38 UTC: • All three loading terminals occupied, with vessel positions and lengths matching yesterday's pass at every berth (same vessels potentially holding station). • Western Terminal: ~333m dark vessel alongside. • LPG Terminal: ~120m dark vessel. • Eastern Terminal: 2x ~330m dark vessels. • • The eastern waiting area now holds ~24 dark, stationary vessels, up from 20 yesterday, extending the backlog that has held at 18+ vessels since July 6.
Iran's Mehr News Agency: Reports of explosions on Kharg Island are false.
Kharg Island, July 6, 05:51 UTC: • Windward's multi-source intelligence tracked both the Western and Eastern crude terminals at Kharg Island reoccupied overnight by dark ballast tankers, arriving with no AIS transmission. • • The LPG/Sulphur berth remains empty for a 14th consecutive day, absent since June 22. • • In the eastern waiting area, 19 dark tankers continue to hold stationary, ranging from ~118m to ~333m, mostly laden, with nine high-speed craft observed transiting the anchored fleet.
Where does the news lean?
0YES9NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
“No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
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