Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meetingSeptember 30
ResolvedOutcome: No$462as of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Lebanese sources tell the Lebanese newspaper Al-Diyar that the date for the third round of negotiations, which was supposed to take place in Rome in early September, has not yet been set, and the discussion will be moved to the second half of the month, in light of the failure of the American mediator so far to achieve a significant breakthrough. The Lebanese source expressed concern that Israel will take advantage of the phase before the Israeli elections to impose new facts on the ground and that the Ali al-Tahrir ridge will become an explosion point that will destroy not only the third round of negotiations in Rome but all the calm experienced by the Lebanese front.
Where does the news lean?
0YES2NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 93%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Hezbollah relations on behalf of their governments/leadership structures. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah leadership, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Related markets
See all outcomes for Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.