Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meetingAugust 31
Open$86Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 1% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES1¢
NO99¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
A senior US State Department official told Al Jazeera that negotiations between Israel and Lebanon will resume in Rome early next month, and that the negotiation path is "positive." He also said that Hezbollah is trying to derail the negotiations by exerting internal pressure.
#Breaking | A Lebanese official source told Anadolu Agency: September 1st has been proposed as a tentative date for a new round of negotiations with Israel, with the American side continuing its consultations with both parties until the final date is determined.
Where does the news lean?
7YES2NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of Israel and Hezbollah who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding Israel-Hezbollah relations on behalf of their governments/leadership structures. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah leadership, and a consensus of credible reporting.
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