Iran successfully targets shipping on...?August 14
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$30Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
The United Arab Emirates' Foreign Ministry announced that the attack on Friday evening, August 13, against a ship belonging to the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in the Strait of Hormuz was carried out by the Islamic Republic. The ministry called the attack "hostile" and strongly condemned it. The statement said: "Targeting commercial shipping and using the Strait of Hormuz as a tool for economic pressure or blackmail is piracy by the Revolutionary Guard Corps and a direct threat to the stability of the region, its people and global energy security." The UAE also called on the Islamic Republic to stop what it called "unprovoked attacks" and to adhere to an immediate cessation of all hostilities. The UAE Foreign Ministry also called for the full and unconditional opening of the Strait of Hormuz, stating that this action is necessary to protect regional security and maintain the stability of the global economy and trade.
Where does the news lean?
1YES0NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 92%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
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