Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
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Market pricing makes August 17 the favorite at 61% across 31 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
August 13100%
August 14100%
August 1761%
August 1813%
August 3011%
August 60%
August 70%
August 90%
August 10%
August 20%
August 30%
August 40%
August 50%
August 80%
All further outcomes (1 more):
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
The 60-day U.S.-Iran agreement expired on August 17. Iran moved within 48 hours. • • A Liberia-flagged bulk carrier was struck in its engine room transiting outbound through the southern corridor overnight, killing the chief engineer. It is the second vessel under the same commercial management hit this month, both after Bandar Imam Khomeini calls. • • A products tanker was boarded near Qeshm Island the same day and is assessed as seized, the first confirmed Iranian seizure since June 22. Windward data shows a progressive slowdown, sharp deviation, then course reversal. The vessel was in ballast, which points to the new transit and fee regime rather than cargo. • • Three China-linked tankers aborted Hormuz transits in the same window. • • Full brief:
The U.S.-Iran agreement expired August 17. Iran enforced its new transit regime within 48 hours. • • A bulk carrier struck outbound in the southern corridor, and the chief engineer was killed. A products tanker was boarded near Qeshm and assessed as seized, the first since June 22. • • Three China-linked tankers aborted Hormuz transits. • • Full brief:
A Liberia-flagged MR tanker's inbound transit through Iran's northern corridor was interrupted on August 17. Iranian claims to have boarded and seized it are unverified. It was held for 18 hours off Qeshm, and it resumed sailing slowly on August 18 and remains in Iranian waters.
The United Arab Emirates' Foreign Ministry announced that the attack on Friday evening, August 13, against a ship belonging to the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in the Strait of Hormuz was carried out by the Islamic Republic. The ministry called the attack "hostile" and strongly condemned it. The statement said: "Targeting commercial shipping and using the Strait of Hormuz as a tool for economic pressure or blackmail is piracy by the Revolutionary Guard Corps and a direct threat to the stability of the region, its people and global energy security." The UAE also called on the Islamic Republic to stop what it called "unprovoked attacks" and to adhere to an immediate cessation of all hostilities. The UAE Foreign Ministry also called for the full and unconditional opening of the Strait of Hormuz, stating that this action is necessary to protect regional security and maintain the stability of the global economy and trade.
Iran is not negotiating with the United States; issues of ensuring the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz are being discussed with Oman. This was stated by the representative of the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ismail Baghaei, whose words are quoted by the Tasnim news agency. “To avoid ambiguity, it is necessary to clarify with whom the negotiations are being conducted. At the moment, we are not negotiating with the United States. Negotiations are being conducted with Oman,” he said. According to him, although the negotiations are bilateral, other states can also contribute to stabilizing the situation. Subscribe to Kommersant in MAX | in Telegram [in reply to: Donald Trump announced that negotiations between Washington and Tehran will begin on August 3. “I think there is a deal. There is a deal on the Strait of Hormuz. "Then there will be an agreement on the nuclear issue, or, one might say, on the denuclearization of Iran," Mr. Trump told reporters. As Donald Trump recalled, the United States decided not to launch a new attack on Iran at the request of Middle Eastern countries. According to him, Tehran also asked Washington not to launch new strikes. At the same time, Mr. Trump added, the United States is ready to launch an attack "at any time we want." Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram]
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.