Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Open$636Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 13% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES13¢
NO88¢
as of
What moved the odds?
12 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Merz: 'Germany's supply of oil, gas, and kerosene is secure. We can all count on that. That is good news. Thank you, Katherina Reiche, for your energy report today in the cabinet.'
German Chancellor Merz on Trump: • • "Right now, we cannot defend ourselves on our own. Only a few of us can still speak with him in a trusting way. I have access to him, things improve when the doors are closed. But it's still not good. I didn't choose him, but he is the president of the United States."
Germany's Merz: We will discuss tomorrow in Paris whether US involvement is also necessary alongside Europe
GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERZ ON STRAIT OF HORMUZ: COALITION AGREES WE ARE IN PRINCIPLE READY TO PROVIDE ASSISTANCE, GIVEN AN INTERNATIONAL MANDATE OR A MANDATE FROM THE GERMAN PARLIAMENT ...
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will travel to Paris on Friday to participate in a conference of countries willing to contribute to a defensive multilateral mission in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported, citing a government source.
NOmail.dbnews.com99%match88¢-1%
Technical note – not for editorial use: Visit of Federal Chancellor Merz to the Carolus-Magnus-Gymnasium in Marsberg on April 27, 2026, on the occasion of EU Project Day at Schools
NOmail.dbnews.com99%match88¢-1%
Press conference by CvD: Press statements by Chancellor Merz and the Chairman of the African Union Commission Youssouf on April 14, 2026 in Berlin
Federal Chancellor of Germany @bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz and I held intergovernmental consultations for the first time in more than 20 years. Our relations are already at the level of a true strategic partnership, and the resumption of consultations will help us move even faster. • • We discussed concrete results and plans for the future. The main focus was on the documents signed today, a significant part of which is aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities and resilience, developing the bilateral agreement on drones proposed by Ukraine to Germany, and addressing issues related to Ukraine’s future membership in the European Union. • • Much joint work lies ahead. I thank Germany for its support and readiness to move forward together.
NOReuters99%match88¢-1%
Germany’s Merz Says There Are No Plans to Restrict the Use by US Forces of Their Bases in Germany
PM call with Chancellor Merz of Germany: 1 April 2026
ALERT: Germany and Syria 'working jointly' on refugee returns: Merz
NONews99%match87¢
German Government Spokesperson Says Chancellor Merz Will Take Part in G7 Call on Wednesday to Discuss Middle East Crisis, Global Economy and Energy Supplies
Where does the news lean?
12YES29NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.