Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of GermanyDecember 31, 2026

OpenVol$2.3MDeadlineas of

Odds now

The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .

YES7¢
NO94¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

15 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .

NOfranceinfo.fr95%match74¢+26%
Live: #GERMANY Earlier in the evening, Chancellor Friedrich Merz ruled out resigning during a brief address...
NOtass.ru91%match84¢+11%
TASS: Merz announced his desire to continue serving as leader of the CDU and chancellor of Germany.
YESRussian Media96%match17¢-59%
Fellow party members are increasingly calling for Friedrich Merz to resign, but the German Chancellor has no intention of leaving his post, Bloomberg reports. Discontent within the CDU has intensified following the party's defeat in the Saxony-Anhalt elections and amid a lack of significant economic growth. Around 20 members of parliament have also threatened to block a €10 billion tax break package. Bloomberg notes that the situation is exacerbated by weak support for the CDU ahead of the regional elections on September 20. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Merz's party, according to one poll, is polling only 7%, while the Alternative for Germany party is polling at 37%. North Rhine-Westphalia Prime Minister Hendrik Wüst and CSU leader Markus Söder are among Merz's potential successors. More IZ RU news in MAX
NOsankei.com93%match87¢+7%
German Chancellor Merz, despite a crushing defeat to the far right, intends to remain in office, stating he will "not give up" as his approval ratings have been low for a long time due to economic stagnation.
NORussian Media94%match86¢+8%
"Giving up is not an option for me": German Chancellor Friedrich Merz avoided answering a question about his possible resignation. According to him, he is currently "thinking about many things, but not about the elections." "I am currently thinking about many things, but not about the 2029 federal elections. I am thinking intensively about how we can return to shared political success," Merz said at a press conference following the failure of his CDU party in the elections in Saxony-Anhalt. At the same time, the German Chancellor emphasized that the country will continue to support Ukraine. According to him, stopping aid to Kyiv will worsen the situation. "If we stop supporting Ukraine, nothing will improve tomorrow - it will get even worse," he added. On September 6, elections to the state parliament were held in Saxony-Anhalt. The Alternative for Germany party won, gaining 44.5%. Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union came in second, with just 17.2%. More IZ RU news in MAX
NOcgtneurope98%match82¢+13%
Merz: 'Germany's supply of oil, gas, and kerosene is secure. We can all count on that. That is good news. Thank you, Katherina Reiche, for your energy report today in the cabinet.'
NOosint61399%match86¢+8%
German Chancellor Merz on Trump: • • "Right now, we cannot defend ourselves on our own. Only a few of us can still speak with him in a trusting way. I have access to him, things improve when the doors are closed. But it's still not good. I didn't choose him, but he is the president of the United States."
NOfinancialjuice98%match86¢+8%
Germany's Merz: We will discuss tomorrow in Paris whether US involvement is also necessary alongside Europe
NOmarketnews_feed98%match86¢+8%
GERMAN CHANCELLOR MERZ ON STRAIT OF HORMUZ: COALITION AGREES WE ARE IN PRINCIPLE READY TO PROVIDE ASSISTANCE, GIVEN AN INTERNATIONAL MANDATE OR A MANDATE FROM THE GERMAN PARLIAMENT ...
NOiranintl_en99%match88¢+6%
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz will travel to Paris on Friday to participate in a conference of countries willing to contribute to a defensive multilateral mission in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported, citing a government source.
NOmail.dbnews.com99%match88¢+6%
Technical note – not for editorial use: Visit of Federal Chancellor Merz to the Carolus-Magnus-Gymnasium in Marsberg on April 27, 2026, on the occasion of EU Project Day at Schools
NOmail.dbnews.com99%match88¢+6%
Press conference by CvD: Press statements by Chancellor Merz and the Chairman of the African Union Commission Youssouf on April 14, 2026 in Berlin
NOUkraine President Zelensky99%match88¢+6%
Federal Chancellor of Germany @bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz and I held intergovernmental consultations for the first time in more than 20 years. Our relations are already at the level of a true strategic partnership, and the resumption of consultations will help us move even faster. • • We discussed concrete results and plans for the future. The main focus was on the documents signed today, a significant part of which is aimed at strengthening Ukraine’s defense capabilities and resilience, developing the bilateral agreement on drones proposed by Ukraine to Germany, and addressing issues related to Ukraine’s future membership in the European Union. • • Much joint work lies ahead. I thank Germany for its support and readiness to move forward together.
NOgov.uk99%match86¢+8%
PM call with Chancellor Merz of Germany: 1 April 2026
NONews99%match87¢+7%
German Government Spokesperson Says Chancellor Merz Will Take Part in G7 Call on Wednesday to Discuss Middle East Crisis, Global Economy and Energy Supplies

Where does the news lean?

34YES49NO14neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.

What would make this resolve YES?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

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See all outcomes for Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.