Eritrea invades EthiopiaOctober 31
Open$60Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 6% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES6¢
NO94¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of invading its territory, threatening military response amid fears of all-out war =============== Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of a "full-scale invasion" of its territory, according to a letter to the UN Security Council, as reported by Reuters Addis Ababa accused Eritrean forces of penetrating up to 60 kilometers into northern Ethiopia, deeming it an act of aggression The Ethiopian letter confirmed Eritrea's deployment of military forces, including mechanized units, deep inside Ethiopian territory The size of the Eritrean forces in Tigray includes, according to an Ethiopian official, a mechanized division and three infantry divisions, each comprising approximately 1,500 soldiers Fears of a regional war have escalated with the renewed fighting in Tigray, representing the largest escalation since the war 2020 to 2022
Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of invading its territory, threatens military response amid fears of all-out war =============== Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of a "full-scale invasion" of its territory, according to a letter to the UN Security Council, Reuters reported. Addis Ababa accused Eritrean forces of penetrating up to 60 kilometers into northern Ethiopia, deeming it an act of aggression. The Ethiopian letter confirmed that Eritrea had deployed military forces, including mechanized units, deep inside Ethiopian territory. According to an Ethiopian official, the size of the Eritrean forces in Tigray includes a mechanized division and three infantry divisions, each comprising approximately 1,500 soldiers. Fears of a regional war have escalated with the renewed fighting in Tigray, marking the largest escalation since the 2020 war. 2022.
Assaf Rosenzweig
Ethiopia's Foreign Minister wrote in a letter to the UN Security Council that Ethiopia "has no choice but to defend itself against a full-scale invasion of its territory by the Eritrean army." According to him, Eritrean army forces have invaded to a depth of 60 km in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia.
Where does the news lean?
9YES1NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eritrean military forces enter Ethiopia by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Ethiopian territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any Eritrean military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Ethiopia for less than 48 hours will not qualify.
Mere presence of Eritrean military forces within Ethiopia will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Ethiopia.
Only the entry of Eritrean military forces into the territory of Ethiopia must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Eritrean military forces enter the territory of Ethiopia by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Ethiopia, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting.
Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Eritrean state and establish de facto control over territory.
For purposes of this market, Ethiopia will be considered to be territory claimed by Ethiopia and not controlled by another state at the time of market creation. Territory claimed by Ethiopia but held by Eritrea or another state will not be relevant for purposes of this market.
Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Ethiopia and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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