Eritrea invades Ethiopia

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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 13% across 2 tracked outcomes, as of .

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December 31alarabiya92%match33¢-61%
Fears of a new war erupting in Africa between Eritrea and Ethiopia... Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of invading its territory, which the latter denies... and the port of Assab returns to the forefront.
October 31alarabiya92%match18¢-67%
Fears of a new war erupting in Africa between Eritrea and Ethiopia... Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of invading its territory, which the latter denies... and the port of Assab returns to the forefront.
December 31alarabiya92%match33¢-61%
Fears of a new war erupting in Africa between Eritrea and Ethiopia... Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of invading its territory, which the latter denies... and the port of Assab returns to the forefront.
October 31alarabiya92%match14¢-57%
Fears of a new war erupting in Africa between Eritrea and Ethiopia... Addis Ababa accuses Asmara of invading its territory, which the latter denies... and the port of Assab returns to the forefront.
December 31ynet.co.il92%match63¢+38%
"This is a declaration of war": Eritrea invaded Ethiopia, withdrew - and calls for UN help
October 31ynet.co.il92%match91¢+3%
"This is a declaration of war": Eritrea invaded Ethiopia, withdrew - and calls for UN help
December 31alakhbarnews93%match39¢-67%
Eritrea calls on the Security Council to take deterrent measures against Ethiopia and warns of war. Eritrea today called on the UN Security Council to take deterrent measures against Ethiopia, warning that Addis Ababa's accusations that Eritrean forces had infiltrated Ethiopian territory amount to a "declaration of war" and threaten the stability of the region.
October 31alakhbarnews92%match7¢-14%
Eritrea calls on the Security Council to take deterrent measures against Ethiopia and warns of war. Eritrea today called on the UN Security Council to take deterrent measures against Ethiopia, warning that Addis Ababa's accusations that Eritrean forces had infiltrated Ethiopian territory amount to a "declaration of war" and threaten the stability of the region.
December 31alarabiya92%match40¢-67%
Northern Ethiopia is back on the brink of war. Addis Ababa describes the Eritrean presence as a full-scale invasion and demands the legitimacy to respond. Asmara rejects the accusations and says the war is being justified under a new pretext.
October 31alarabiya92%match29¢-79%
Northern Ethiopia is back on the brink of war. Addis Ababa describes the Eritrean presence as a full-scale invasion and demands the legitimacy to respond. Asmara rejects the accusations and says the war is being justified under a new pretext.
December 31alhadath94%match62¢-79%
Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of ​​invading its territory, threatening military response amid fears of all-out war =============== Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of ​​a "full-scale invasion" of its territory, according to a letter to the UN Security Council, as reported by Reuters Addis Ababa accused Eritrean forces of penetrating up to 60 kilometers into northern Ethiopia, deeming it an act of aggression The Ethiopian letter confirmed Eritrea's deployment of military forces, including mechanized units, deep inside Ethiopian territory The size of the Eritrean forces in Tigray includes, according to an Ethiopian official, a mechanized division and three infantry divisions, each comprising approximately 1,500 soldiers Fears of a regional war have escalated with the renewed fighting in Tigray, representing the largest escalation since the war 2020 to 2022
October 31alhadath93%match39¢-85%
Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of ​​invading its territory, threatening military response amid fears of all-out war =============== Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of ​​a "full-scale invasion" of its territory, according to a letter to the UN Security Council, as reported by Reuters Addis Ababa accused Eritrean forces of penetrating up to 60 kilometers into northern Ethiopia, deeming it an act of aggression The Ethiopian letter confirmed Eritrea's deployment of military forces, including mechanized units, deep inside Ethiopian territory The size of the Eritrean forces in Tigray includes, according to an Ethiopian official, a mechanized division and three infantry divisions, each comprising approximately 1,500 soldiers Fears of a regional war have escalated with the renewed fighting in Tigray, representing the largest escalation since the war 2020 to 2022
December 31alarabiya96%match62¢-79%
Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of ​​invading its territory, threatens military response amid fears of all-out war =============== Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of ​​a "full-scale invasion" of its territory, according to a letter to the UN Security Council, Reuters reported. Addis Ababa accused Eritrean forces of penetrating up to 60 kilometers into northern Ethiopia, deeming it an act of aggression. The Ethiopian letter confirmed that Eritrea had deployed military forces, including mechanized units, deep inside Ethiopian territory. According to an Ethiopian official, the size of the Eritrean forces in Tigray includes a mechanized division and three infantry divisions, each comprising approximately 1,500 soldiers. Fears of a regional war have escalated with the renewed fighting in Tigray, marking the largest escalation since the 2020 war. 2022.
October 31alarabiya95%match39¢-85%
Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of ​​invading its territory, threatens military response amid fears of all-out war =============== Ethiopia has accused Eritrea of ​​a "full-scale invasion" of its territory, according to a letter to the UN Security Council, Reuters reported. Addis Ababa accused Eritrean forces of penetrating up to 60 kilometers into northern Ethiopia, deeming it an act of aggression. The Ethiopian letter confirmed that Eritrea had deployed military forces, including mechanized units, deep inside Ethiopian territory. According to an Ethiopian official, the size of the Eritrean forces in Tigray includes a mechanized division and three infantry divisions, each comprising approximately 1,500 soldiers. Fears of a regional war have escalated with the renewed fighting in Tigray, marking the largest escalation since the 2020 war. 2022.
December 31Channel 12 (N12)93%match63¢-79%
Assaf Rosenzweig Ethiopia's Foreign Minister wrote in a letter to the UN Security Council that Ethiopia "has no choice but to defend itself against a full-scale invasion of its territory by the Eritrean army." According to him, Eritrean army forces have invaded to a depth of 60 km in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia.
October 31Channel 12 (N12)93%match39¢-85%
Assaf Rosenzweig Ethiopia's Foreign Minister wrote in a letter to the UN Security Council that Ethiopia "has no choice but to defend itself against a full-scale invasion of its territory by the Eritrean army." According to him, Eritrean army forces have invaded to a depth of 60 km in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia.
December 31Russian Media91%match63¢-79%
On the brink of a new war: Ethiopian authorities stated that the country "has no choice but to defend itself against Eritrea," Reuters reports. Addis Ababa has demanded the immediate withdrawal of Eritrean troops from its territory, sending a corresponding appeal to the UN Security Council. The new escalation is unfolding amid fighting in northern Ethiopia. Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea of ​​supporting the rebels and introducing troops into its territory. The countries previously severed diplomatic relations. Tensions are also heightened by a long-standing dispute over Ethiopia's access to the Red Sea: Addis Ababa remains the world's most populous country without its own coastline and is seeking access to port infrastructure. Why the long-standing conflict between neighbors has escalated again and what role Ethiopia's desire to gain access to the Red Sea plays in it—Izvestia investigated. More IZ RU news in MAX
December 31spiegel.de92%match64¢-80%
Troops from Eritrea have apparently invaded Ethiopia.
October 31spiegel.de92%match53¢-89%
Troops from Eritrea have apparently invaded Ethiopia.
October 31Russian Media92%match5¢+20%
FWD from IZ.RU • IMPORTANT: Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic relations: what's happening in the Horn of Africa Ethiopia and Eritrea have severed diplomatic relations amid renewed tensions around the Tigray region. Addis Ababa has accused its neighbor of supporting rebels and sending troops into Ethiopian territory. The situation is complicated by the fact that the two countries already have a long history of wars and territorial disputes. The conflict in Tigray has flared up again From 2020 to 2022, the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front waged a civil war. It ended with the Pretoria Agreement, but some issues remained unresolved, and in the summer the TPLF declared the agreement "effectively dead." In September, seven rebel groups from different regions united to form the Ethiopian People's Forces for Survival Coalition. It included representatives of the Tigray, Oromo, Amhara, Somali, and Afar peoples. Some of these forces had fought against each other during the previous war and now opposed the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Rebels went on the offensive On September 23, the coalition launched an offensive from Tigray and established control over three key airports in the region. Fighting spread to Afar and Amhara, and Ethiopian Airlines was forced to cancel flights to the north of the country. Government forces managed to recapture some settlements. On the night of October 1, rebels also carried out drone strikes in Addis Ababa. Ethiopia accused Eritrea of ​​interference Ethiopian authorities claimed that Eritrea was supporting the rebels. Afar Governor Awol Arba claimed that Eritrean troops entered the region to cut the road from Ethiopia to Djibouti. Following this, Addis Ababa closed its embassy in Asmara and expelled ten Eritrean diplomats. In response, Eritrea announced a complete severance of diplomatic relations. The countries have been in conflict for decades Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993 after years of war. As a result, Ethiopia lost its own access to the Red Sea. By 1998, a new border war had broken out between the countries. A peace agreement was signed in 2000, but clashes continued periodically for another 18 years. Only in 2018 did Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announce his renunciation of territorial claims and his readiness to abide by the peace treaty. At the center of the dispute is access to the sea Ethiopia remains the most populous landlocked country in the world and is seeking access to the Red Sea. Addis Ababa has offered Eritrea various options for transferring control of the port of Assab, including an exchange for territory or shares in Ethiopian Airlines and the Hydaseh Dam. Eritrea rejects these proposals. Now, mutual accusations have been added to the old territorial disputes amid a new internal conflict in Ethiopia, which has once again heightened tensions between the two countries. Subscribe to IMPORTANT | More news here

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eritrean military forces enter Ethiopia by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET in a military operation that establishes control over any portion of Ethiopian territory. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any Eritrean military operation which remains on the ground inside the territory of Ethiopia for less than 48 hours will not qualify. Mere presence of Eritrean military forces within Ethiopia will not alone qualify, even if for longer than 48 hours. A consensus of credible reporting must demonstrate that such presence is or was part of a military operation which established control over a portion of Ethiopia. Only the entry of Eritrean military forces into the territory of Ethiopia must occur by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Where Eritrean military forces enter the territory of Ethiopia by the listed date, but on the listed date, at 11:59 PM ET, control has not yet been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting, this market will remain open for 7 additional full calendar days (ET) to allow for confirmation. If, at the end of the seventh calendar day, no consensus of credible reporting indicates that the operation has established or did establish control over part of Ethiopia, this market will resolve to "No." No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by a consensus of credible reporting. Hybrid or "grey zone" operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be acting under the direct control of the Eritrean state and establish de facto control over territory. For purposes of this market, Ethiopia will be considered to be territory claimed by Ethiopia and not controlled by another state at the time of market creation. Territory claimed by Ethiopia but held by Eritrea or another state will not be relevant for purposes of this market. Search and rescue or hostage rescue operations, operations intended solely to capture specific individuals, operations solely intended to evacuate personnel or to extract or destroy equipment or infrastructure, and intelligence, reconnaissance, or surveillance operations, whether overt or covert, will not qualify unless clearly demonstrated by a consensus of credible reporting to have satisfied this market’s criteria for a “Yes” resolution. Operations conducted with the consent or at the invitation of the government of Ethiopia and strikes by air, missile, drone, or naval forces unaccompanied by ground forces will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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