Bank of England decision in September?50+ bps decrease
Open$14Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
5 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOReuters92%match100¢
Reuters Poll-Bank of England to Hold Bank Rate Steady at 3.75% Through to First Quarter of Next Year, Medians Showed
NOReuters96%match100¢
Reuters Poll-Bank of England to Hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in 2026, Said 56 Out of 64 Economists
LS PREVIEW | BoE Set To Hold Rates As Markets Focus On Vote Split And Updated Forecasts • • LONDON – Few expect the Bank of England to spring a surprise on Thursday, with policymakers widely forecast to leave the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%. Instead, attention will centre on the Monetary Policy Report, the voting split and whether officials adopt a more hawkish tone in response to renewed energy-driven inflation risks. • • The decision is due at midday (London time) on Thursday. The MPC is expected to vote 7-2 in favour of a hold. The committee's two consistent hawks, chief economist Huw Pill and Megan Greene, are expected to again vote for tighter policy, while some analysts believe Catherine Mann could join them. • • This meeting will also include the BoE's annual review of quantitative tightening. Barclays expects the Bank to conclude that QT has increased gilt yields by around 15-25 basis points. • •
NOReuters92%match100¢
Reuters Poll-Bank of England to Hold Bank Rate Steady at 3.75% Through to Middle of Next Year, Medians Showed
NOReuters99%match100¢
UK Rate Futures Point to Around 50 Basis Points of Bank of England Policy Tightening by December vs About 40 Bps on Monday
Where does the news lean?
0YES10NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
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