Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normalAugust 31
Open$17.8Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 0% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
21 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Maritime traffic data: Maritime traffic in the main waterways of the Persian Gulf remains weak The passage of ships carrying essential goods through the Strait of Hormuz increased on Wednesday compared to Tuesday, but remained below its 10-day average / Selection
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic holds at low levels on Tuesday
Gulf ship traffic via Strait of Hormuz hovers below 10-day average, data shows
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level in 3 months
Reuters reports: Cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in over three months.
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in three months.
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level in 3 months
Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has declined by approximately 90% compared to pre-conflict levels. #AlArabiya_Business
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz skyrockets nearly 400%, as analysts say Iran's grip on critical waterway weakens
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz skyrockets nearly 400%, as analysts say Iran’s grip on critical waterway weakens
Live: Hormuz traffic this week is 20% of pre-war average, US says "oil is flowing"
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic this week was 20% of pre-war average, though US says "oil is flowing"
The Strait of Hormuz is "open," according to Trump's statements, but reports indicate a sharp decline in shipping traffic.
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic remains 90% below pre-war levels as security threats persist
Reuters reported that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has been almost completely halted since Friday, August 13, after two Emirati ships were attacked and the US announced that it could continue its naval blockade of the Islamic Republic indefinitely. According to data from tracking company Kepler, only two ships passed through the waterway on Friday; a grain ship entered Iranian waters and an empty bulk carrier headed in the opposite direction. An empty tanker carrying liquefied gas products was also entering the Persian Gulf, and no crude oil cargo was seen passing.
Statistics and figures invalidate Trump's claims about Hormuz Wall Street Journal: Maritime traffic has dropped from more than 130 ships per day to 14 ships, the average traffic in July was only 26 and in June 33 ships, out of 166 crossings in August, only two were made through the US-backed route, and insurance costs have also increased from 0.25% to 10%. In addition to removing more than 2.6 billion barrels of oil from the market, these figures show that control of the Strait of Hormuz is in the hands of Iran, not the US. Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz "approaching its lowest level since May," according to US media.
Reuters reported that the number of ships tracked in the Strait of Hormuz fell to eight on Tuesday, August 10, the lowest in a week.
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic slows to multi-week low
So much for Hormuz traffic going back to normal
Cosmo crude oil tanker passes through the Strait of Hormuz, returning to port in mid-July; normalization remains uncertain
Where does the news lean?
36YES147NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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