Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normalAugust 15
ResolvedOutcome: No$7.2Mas of
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This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
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NO100¢
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32 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
60 days after the understanding between Tehran and Washington, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continues with lower traffic levels and oil volumes than before the war.
Live: Shipping in Strait of Hormuz continues to slow
Hormuz Traffic Falls, Red Sea Resilient • • Maritime traffic diverged across two critical chokepoints last week. Strait of Hormuz crossings fell 19.5% to 95 from 118, with daily traffic declining from a peak of 19 on 11 August to just three on 16 August. Of the total, 51 crossings used the Iranian Unilateral Scheme and 44 were Route Undetermined. No Hormuz TSS or Omani-route crossings were recorded. • Bab el-Mandeb crossings increased 6.7% to 254 from 238, with 150 vessels entering the Red Sea and 104 exiting. Dark transits fell sharply to 16 from 40, although compliance and security exposure persisted, with 29 sanctioned and 39 shadow fleet crossings recorded during the week.
Kepler data shows that commercial ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has slowed to a near standstill over the weekend after three vessels operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company were attacked. According to Reuters, only five cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, and none were recorded on Sunday, August 15, compared to 31 at the end of last week. Reuters wrote that some ships may have passed through the waterway with silent tracking systems. Before the US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic in March, more than 130 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily, and one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments were transported through this route. Abbas Araqchi, the Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic, has said that the resumption of shipping depends on Washington accepting Tehran's conditions regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
Reuters: Data showed a slowdown in ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.
Reuters, citing shipping data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slowed over the past two days.
Data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was slow on Saturday and Sunday following attacks on oil tankers and the lack of progress in Iran-US peace talks.
Reuters, citing shipping data: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz slowed over the past two days.
The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization announced that three ships were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz within 72 hours and the regional threat level in this waterway has been assessed as "very high." According to the organization, two oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on August 13, and a cargo ship was attacked on August 14 as it entered the strait. The organization did not provide details about the cause of the attacks, how they occurred, or possible damage to the ships in the published information.
The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization said two oil tankers were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz on August 13 and a cargo ship was attacked as it entered the strait on August 14. The organization declared the regional threat level as “very high.”
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic remains at a fraction of pre-war levels
Live: Hormuz traffic remains at less than a fifth of pre-war average
Live: Marine traffic drops in Strait of Hormuz, stabilizes in Bab el-Mandeb, data shows
An Announcement To Reopen The Strait Of Hormuz Remains Elusive. Traffic Is Down To a Trickle. • Only two vessels traveled through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday as negotiations with Iran to reopen it continue.
Kepler announced that on Friday, August 7, only eight confirmed crossings of the Strait of Hormuz were recorded, a 33 percent decrease from the previous day.
Clapper announced that on Friday, August 7, only eight confirmed crossings of the Strait of Hormuz were recorded, a 33 percent decrease from the previous day.
Live: Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic drops sharply, data shows
Vessel traffic through Hormuz dwindles this week as markets watch Iran-Oman talks
Vessel tracking data and maritime imagery show that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains affected by the US-Iran war and uncertainty about shipping security. Despite ongoing negotiations to reopen the waterway, vessel traffic has not yet returned to normal levels. Maritime intelligence firm Windward had previously reported that only 12 vessels had passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the 24 hours ending on the morning of August 6, compared to around 140 vessels passing through the route daily before the disruption.
Chairman of the Board of Asset Company, Ahmed Samir: We are witnessing a state of fluctuation and uncertainty regarding the US and Iran reaching an agreement in the Strait of Hormuz. Ship traffic has dropped sharply to 5% of what it was before the war. Heavy oil tankers need to pass through the Iranian channel because it is deeper, which makes any Omani-Iranian agreement insufficient without direct Iranian-American approval and consensus. We still don't know if the Iranian mines are actually present or not, and the full recovery of navigation in Hormuz will take a month after the agreement. #Arab_Markets #Arab_Business
@mayaj_bn
Windward Maritime Intelligence reported that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had dropped to 12 vessels in the 24 hours ending on the morning of August 6, down from about 140 vessels a day before the disruption. According to the company’s data, six vessels entered the Strait of Hormuz and six left. Windward also reported that three vessels had lost their Automatic Identification System (AIS) signals while passing through the southern corridor overnight, each for about 12 hours. A bulk carrier also went directly from Iran to a military port in Oman after leaving the strait, which Windward’s AI system assessed as one of the most serious attempts to break the blockade. Another vessel changed course and returned before reaching the Strait of Hormuz.
Windward tracked 12 Hormuz transits in the 24 hours to 21:00 UTC 5 August: 6 inbound, 6 outbound, against a ~140-vessel pre-disruption baseline. • • 3 vessels ran AIS-dark overnight ~12h each via the southern corridor. One outbound bulk carrier routed straight from Iran to a military anchorage in Oman, flagged by Windward Maritime AI as tier 1 blockade-breaker candidate. • • One vessel approached inbound toward Iraq, then reversed course short of the strait.
Windward tracked 12 Hormuz transits in the 24 hours to 21:00 UTC 5 August: • 6 inbound, 6 outbound, against a ~140-vessel pre-disruption baseline. • • 3 vessels ran AIS-dark overnight ~12h each via the southern corridor. One outbound bulk carrier routed straight from Iran to a military anchorage in Oman, flagged by Windward Maritime AI as tier 1 blockade-breaker candidate. • • One vessel approached inbound toward Iraq, then reversed course short of the strait.
Kepler: Danger remains high in Strait of Hormuz Maritime danger remains high. Maritime traffic is moving in different directions at two critical points. Transits through the Strait of Hormuz decreased to eight vessels on August 4, with most vessels leaving the Persian Gulf and their routes centered around Iran’s unilateral plan. Transits through Bab al-Mandab increased to 34 vessels, but four dark transits, activity by sanctioned vessels, and movements of the shadow fleet highlight ongoing concerns about transparency of routes and compliance with regulations.
@TasnimNews
18:01/August 4
Operational Assessment: An average of one offending vessel is hit daily in the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM escorts have been suspended and strikes on Iranian military infrastructure on the southern coast and islands have not affected Iran's ability to monitor and control the Strait.
CNN reported that while US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant expressed hope that an agreement with the Islamic Republic to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could be reached “by Tuesday or Wednesday,” shipping analysts say that fewer than 10 ships typically pass through the waterway daily. According to Clapperboard data, only nine crossings of the Strait of Hormuz were recorded on Sunday, August 1, and only two of them were oil tankers. The report also said that some vessels are traveling with their tracking systems turned off, making it difficult to assess the situation. The CEO of Saudi Aramco also said that even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen today, it could take up to 18 months to recover from the loss of oil reserves. He also estimated that global markets are losing more than 100 million barrels of oil per week due to the restrictions on traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
SHIPPING ANALYSTS QUESTION HORMUZ RECOVERY • • Shipping analysts are more cautious than U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on a recovery in Strait of Hormuz traffic. • • While Bessent said a U.S.-Iran deal could come "today or tomorrow," analysts report fewer than 10 ships transiting daily. Kpler recorded just nine crossings on Sunday, including only two tankers. • • Estimated crude flows remain at 3–5 million bpd, far below the pre-conflict 20 million bpd. Saudi Aramco says replenishing inventories could take up to 18 months, even if the strait reopens immediately.
The British Maritime Trade Operations Organization announced in a statement released on Sunday, August 1, that a liquefied natural gas (LNG) ship and an oil tanker were attacked on Saturday, August 1, in the north and northeast of the Strait of Hormuz. The statement said the regional threat level remained "severe." Disruptions to satellite navigation systems (GNSS) and military activity in the region continued, and commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained at a lower level than usual. The report also said that shipping companies remained cautious, with some of them postponing ship passage or changing the timing of voyages.
The UK's Maritime Trade Operations Authority announced that two tankers, one carrying natural gas and the other carrying crude oil, were attacked in the north and northeast of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, August 1. The regional threat level remains high and disruption to maritime navigation systems continues.
Hormuz transits still low despite pause in fighting
On Tuesday, August 26, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Kazem Gharibabadi, said in a televised interview that the Islamic Republic's policy is that the Strait of Hormuz "will never return to the pre-war situation." He added that any European ship that tries to approach the Strait of Hormuz will be a "legitimate target" of the Islamic Republic. Gharibabadi also said that Oman had proposed sending a country to clear mines in the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz, but the Islamic Republic has opposed this request. He stressed that the Islamic Republic has not made any requests for negotiations with the United States in the past 15 days, and it was the United States that requested negotiations through Oman and sent a message that it would not take military action against the Islamic Republic. Gharibabadi also said: "A naval blockade cannot force the Islamic Republic to negotiate. We were under the most extensive sanctions after the 1979 revolution and we have learned how to live under severe sanctions.”
The Joint Maritime Information Center: Shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains low over the past 48 hours.
Where does the news lean?
29YES63NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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