When will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran?

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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 5% across 7 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

16 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

May 31iranintlbrk99%match99¢+1%
The office of Prince Reza Pahlavi announced his meeting with a group of prominent Iranian-American entrepreneurs in San Francisco on Saturday, May 16. The meeting will discuss strategies for the recovery and prosperity of trade, industry, and technology in Iran.
December 31iranintl_en98%match26¢-81%
Exiled Iranian prince Reza Pahlavi urged Iranians to remain in their homes and continue strike action while awaiting what he described as his “final call,” saying the country had reached a sensitive stage in its struggle against the Islamic Republic.
December 31Visegrád 2498%match72¢+32%
BREAKING: Student mass protests has now spread to Khajeh Nasir University in Tehran too. They are chanting the name of Crown Prince @PahlaviReza
February 28Visegrád 2498%match100¢
BREAKING: Student mass protests has now spread to Khajeh Nasir University in Tehran too. They are chanting the name of Crown Prince @PahlaviReza
June 30Visegrád 2498%match18¢-100%
BREAKING: Student mass protests has now spread to Khajeh Nasir University in Tehran too. They are chanting the name of Crown Prince @PahlaviReza
June 30Visegrád 2498%match18¢-100%
BREAKING Students start anti-regime mass-protests across Iran again This video shows students from one of Iran's top technology universities, Tehran’s Sharif University of Technology, taking to the streets chanting “Crown Prince @PahlaviReza will return”
December 31Visegrád 2498%match72¢+32%
[Islamists] come to our countries as guests, and instead of assimilating, and respecting our values and culture, they are dictating that we should practice Sharia law? [The West] will end up like Iran! says Crown Prince @PahlaviReza in an interview with V24’s Stefan Tompson.
February 28Visegrád 2498%match99¢+1%
[Islamists] come to our countries as guests, and instead of assimilating, and respecting our values and culture, they are dictating that we should practice Sharia law? [The West] will end up like Iran! says Crown Prince @PahlaviReza in an interview with V24’s Stefan Tompson.
June 30Visegrád 2498%match83¢+20%
[Islamists] come to our countries as guests, and instead of assimilating, and respecting our values and culture, they are dictating that we should practice Sharia law? [The West] will end up like Iran! says Crown Prince @PahlaviReza in an interview with V24’s Stefan Tompson.
December 31Visegrád 2498%match72¢+32%
[Islamists] come to our countries as guests, and instead of assimilating, and respecting our values and culture, they are dictating that we should practice Sharia law? [The West] will end up like Iran! says Crown Prince @PahlaviReza in an interview with V24’s Stefan Tompson.
February 28Visegrád 2498%match99¢+1%
[Islamists] come to our countries as guests, and instead of assimilating, and respecting our values and culture, they are dictating that we should practice Sharia law? [The West] will end up like Iran! says Crown Prince @PahlaviReza in an interview with V24’s Stefan Tompson.
June 30Visegrád 2498%match83¢+20%
[Islamists] come to our countries as guests, and instead of assimilating, and respecting our values and culture, they are dictating that we should practice Sharia law? [The West] will end up like Iran! says Crown Prince @PahlaviReza in an interview with V24’s Stefan Tompson.
January 31Globe Eye News99%match9¢-100%
Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi says he is preparing to return to Iran.
June 30Globe Eye News99%match28¢-100%
Exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi says he is preparing to return to Iran.
January 31WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧99%match91¢+10%
Reza Pahlavi calls for nationwide strikes in Iran and says it’s time to take back the streets.
June 30First Squawk99%match88¢+14%
Iran’s exiled prince Reza Pahlavi urged protesters to maintain control of the streets and create road blockages to hinder a security crackdown, praising demonstrators for their courage over the past week.

What is this event about?

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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