Will ground beef hit __ in 2026?
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Market pricing makes $7.000+ the favorite at 49% across 4 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
14 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Trump moves to slash ground beef prices and America’s ranchers are pushing back hard. • • The president says the U.S. will allow up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef to enter tariff-free for 90 days, with a commitment that it sells at 25% below current market prices. • • But cattle groups warn the move could undercut American producers just as they try to rebuild the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75 years. • • "The best thing is to stay out of our business," National Cattlemen's Beef Association CEO Colin Woodall tells FOX Business. • • Trump says he "loves the ranchers" but argues Americans need relief at the grocery store and "we need a little help" getting beef prices down.
Trump moves to slash ground beef prices and America’s ranchers are pushing back hard. • • The president says the U.S. will allow up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef to enter tariff-free for 90 days, with a commitment that it sells at 25% below current market prices. • • But cattle groups warn the move could undercut American producers just as they try to rebuild the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75 years. • • "The best thing is to stay out of our business," National Cattlemen's Beef Association CEO Colin Woodall tells FOX Business. • • Trump says he "loves the ranchers" but argues Americans need relief at the grocery store and "we need a little help" getting beef prices down.
Trump moves to slash ground beef prices and America’s ranchers are pushing back hard. • • The president says the U.S. will allow up to 300,000 metric tons of ground beef to enter tariff-free for 90 days, with a commitment that it sells at 25% below current market prices. • • But cattle groups warn the move could undercut American producers just as they try to rebuild the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75 years. • • "The best thing is to stay out of our business," National Cattlemen's Beef Association CEO Colin Woodall tells FOX Business. • • Trump says he "loves the ranchers" but argues Americans need relief at the grocery store and "we need a little help" getting beef prices down.
Beef prices are surging as America's cattle herd falls to its smallest level in 75 years, and relief could still be years away. • • The U.S. entered 2026 with about 86.2 million cattle and calves, down more than 8 million from 2019, as years of drought forced ranchers to shrink their herds. Choice beef prices have jumped roughly 23% since August 2024. • • Experts say rebuilding the nation's cattle supply takes time, meaning consumers could continue feeling the squeeze at the grocery store for years.
Beef prices are surging as America's cattle herd falls to its smallest level in 75 years, and relief could still be years away. • • The U.S. entered 2026 with about 86.2 million cattle and calves, down more than 8 million from 2019, as years of drought forced ranchers to shrink their herds. Choice beef prices have jumped roughly 23% since August 2024. • • Experts say rebuilding the nation's cattle supply takes time, meaning consumers could continue feeling the squeeze at the grocery store for years.
A pound of ground beef now costs $6.82 — and that number is crushing consumer confidence
A pound of ground beef now costs $6.82 — and that number is crushing consumer confidence
A pound of ground beef now costs $6.82 — and that number is crushing consumer confidence
Trump: Walmart Will Be Dropping Price for a Pound of Ground Beef by Almost 15%, Among Many Other Products
Trump: Walmart Will Be Dropping Price for a Pound of Ground Beef by Almost 15%, Among Many Other Products
CHART OF THE DAY: Yes, gasoline; but also beef. • • (And both politically toxic in America ahead of the summer) • • The average cost of a pound of ground chuck has risen to almost $7. Red meat inflation in the US is out of control, with prices up 91% since Trump's 1st inauguration)
CHART OF THE DAY: Yes, gasoline; but also beef. • • (And both politically toxic in America ahead of the summer) • • The average cost of a pound of ground chuck has risen to almost $7. Red meat inflation in the US is out of control, with prices up 91% since Trump's 1st inauguration)
CHART OF THE DAY: Yes, gasoline; but also beef. • • (And both politically toxic in America ahead of the summer) • • The average cost of a a pound of ground chuck has risen to almost $7. Red meat inflation in the US is out of control, with prices up 91% since Trump's 1st inauguration)
The unexpected force keeping beef prices high and why the pressure could last for years
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the figure for "Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average" reaches or exceeds the listed figure for any month of 2026 as published by the St. Louis Fed (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000703112). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for ground beef prices on the BLS's CPI release. This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" upon a qualifying update of the St. Louis Fed's chart. If no data for any month of 2026 is released by the scheduled date for the January 2027 CPI release, this market will resolve according to the data for 2026 already available at that time.
The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.