When will any country leave NATO?
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Market pricing makes December 31, 2026 the favorite at 2% across 3 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Allies react to Trump's remarks about moving to pull the U.S. out of NATO
Allies react to Trump's remarks about moving to pull the U.S. out of NATO
PARIS-GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER WADEPHUL: HAVE NO DOUBT THAT NATO WILL REMAIN WHAT IT ALWAYS WAS, A SUCCESSFUL ALLIANCE
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.