When will any country leave NATO?June 30, 2026
ResolvedOutcome: No$741Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Allies react to Trump's remarks about moving to pull the U.S. out of NATO
NOCGTN America99%match96¢+4%
PARIS-GERMAN FOREIGN MINISTER WADEPHUL: HAVE NO DOUBT THAT NATO WILL REMAIN WHAT IT ALWAYS WAS, A SUCCESSFUL ALLIANCE
Where does the news lean?
0YES2NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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See all outcomes for When will any country leave NATO? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.