Who will replace Mullin as Oklahoma Senator?
Open35as of
This hub tracks 35 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
23 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt appointed energy executive Alan Armstrong to replace newly confirmed DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin in the Senate.
NEW: Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt tapped energy executive Alan Armstrong to replace incoming DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin in the Senate.
NEW: Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt says he is appointing Alan Armstrong to replace Markwayne Mullin in the Senate. • • Armstrong will hold the seat until a replacement is elected and sworn in.
Shocked that the Trump White House didn't try to veto Kevin Stitt appointing Alan Armstrong, given his donations to Adam Kinzinger.
News: Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt officially appoints Alan Armstrong as Mullin’s replacement. He will be sworn in later today. • • Stitt on Armstrong: • • “Alan’s story reflects the very best of Oklahoma.” • • Statement from Williams CEO Chad Zamarin: • • “Governor Stitt’s appointment of Alan Armstrong to the U.S. Senate is a proud moment for Williams and a testament to Alan’s four decades of principled leadership. We are grateful for his service to Oklahoma and to our nation. We know that Alan will bring incredible leadership to the Senate and will continue to champion American energy and prosperity.” • • We first reported this was his plan on Saturday: • •
Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt officially announces oil exec Alan Armstrong as his pick to fill Markwayne Mullin’s Senate seat #OKSEN
News: Gov. Kevin Stitt has chosen Alan Armstrong to replace Mullin in the US Senate for the rest of the term. • • The two are expected to travel to MAL tomorrow to meet with Trump. • • Sources cautioned that the pick could change following the meeting. • •
*TRUMP ENDORSES KEVIN HERN FOR OKLAHOMA SENATE SEAT
President Trump just endorsed Kevin Hern for Oklahoma Senate seat after nominating Mullin to lead DHS.
NEW: President Trump endorses Rep. Kevin Hern for Oklahoma’s open Senate seat
News: Trump endorses Kevin Hern for Oklahoma Senate
Trump on Truth Social endorses Kevin Hern for #OKSEN
Scoop: A Cabinet shake up and vacant Senate seat drove Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt to attempt to patch up his relationship with President Donald Trump. • • When Stitt sat down with Trump Thursday at the White House, the governor’s first priority was clearing the air between the two Republicans after recent tensions over White House invitations to the nation’s governors. • • W/ @AlexGangitano • •
Days after Rep. Kevin Hern officially jumps in the U.S. Senate race to rep Oklahoma, Rep. Stephanie Bice announces she’s not running. • • Hern was seen with deputy WH chief of staff James Blair multiple times during this week’s GOP retreat in Doral.
News: Rep. Stephanie Bice will not run for Senate to replace Markwayne Mullin • • “I am truly overwhelmed by the words of support and encouragement I have received from across this great state. After prayerful consideration, I remain committed to serving the Fifth Congressional District, a place that I proudly call home. As a fourth generation Oklahoman, I look forward to continuing to deliver results. President Trump needs strong allies in the House and it is my honor to champion policies that better the lives of everyday Oklahomans. In the next few weeks I will file for re-election, and I’m excited to continue traveling across the district to share our strong America first agenda.”
Stephanie Bice announces she won't run for #OKSEN:
NEW: Rep. Stephanie Bice will NOT run for Senate in Oklahoma, she tells me in a statement: • • “I am truly overwhelmed by the words of support and encouragement I have received from across this great state. After prayerful consideration, I remain committed to serving the Fifth Congressional District, a place that I proudly call home. As a fourth generation Oklahoman, I look forward to continuing to deliver results. President Trump needs strong allies in the House and it is my honor to champion policies that better the lives of everyday Oklahomans. In the next few weeks I will file for re-election, and I’m excited to continue traveling across the district to share our strong America first agenda.”
Rep. Kevin Hern’s in the race for Oklahoma Senate after the admin tapped @MarkwayneMullin to lead DHS
Republican Rep. Kevin Hern to run for Sen. Markwayne Mullin's seat in Oklahoma
News: Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt is expected to meet with President Donald Trump this week in DC to talk about who he will appoint to the Senate, per three sources. • • Meeting likely will be Thursday, sources say.
Oklahoma House Republican Kevin Hern is set to announce his campaign for Senate tomorrow, a source familiar tells me • • Confirming @PunchbowlNews
News: Rep. Kevin Hern will announce his run for Senate tomorrow afternoon • • Confirming @PunchbowlNews
NEWS: KEVIN HERN, House Republican from Oklahoma and former RSC chair, will announce tomorrow afternoon he is running for Senate. • • me and @LauraEWeiss16 • • (text subscribers knew this already)
What is this event about?
On March 5, 2026, Donald Trump announced that the United States Senator from Oklahoma, Markwayne Mullin, will be appointed to replace Kristi Noem as United States Secretary of Homeland Security.
This market will resolve according to the next person officially appointed by the Governor of Oklahoma, or otherwise formally selected according the jurisdiction's vacancy rules, to fill Markwayne Mullin’s seat as United States Senator from Oklahoma.
Interim, Acting, or other temporary Senators appointed or elected to the role will count.
If no replacement senator has been appointed or elected by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None Before Midterm Election.”
Additionally, if, prior to November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a widespread consensus of credible reporting indicates that Markwayne Mullin will complete his term as United States Senator (e.g. if Mullin’s nomination as Secretary of Homeland Security is rejected or withdrawn and he announces he will complete his term), this market will resolve immediately to “None Before Midterm Election.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Oklahoma; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.