Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

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Market pricing makes Somaliland the favorite at 15% across 12 tracked outcomes, as of .

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30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Saudi Arabiaalmayadeenlive97%match93¢-1%
The Atlantic: Saudi Arabia's rejection of the Abraham Accords in favor of a strategic agreement with Pakistan and Turkey points to the contours of the future.
EgyptNYP Reporter94%match94¢-3%
Bangladesh, Egypt, Syria… so many regional countries rumored to be considering the Article 5-style agreement with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey. • • If there was any hope of Abraham Accords expansion after Iran’s attacks on Gulf countries, it’s quickly faded.
SyriaNYP Reporter95%match93¢
Bangladesh, Egypt, Syria… so many regional countries rumored to be considering the Article 5-style agreement with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey. • • If there was any hope of Abraham Accords expansion after Iran’s attacks on Gulf countries, it’s quickly faded.
PakistanNYP Reporter95%match96¢
Bangladesh, Egypt, Syria… so many regional countries rumored to be considering the Article 5-style agreement with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey. • • If there was any hope of Abraham Accords expansion after Iran’s attacks on Gulf countries, it’s quickly faded.
TurkeyNYP Reporter94%match96¢+1%
Bangladesh, Egypt, Syria… so many regional countries rumored to be considering the Article 5-style agreement with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey. • • If there was any hope of Abraham Accords expansion after Iran’s attacks on Gulf countries, it’s quickly faded.
Geopolitical messages that MBS is sending • • - Instead of Abraham accords, it is Mecca accords • • - Instead of a GCC defense pact, Saudi Arabia is looking to Turkey, Pakistan • • Turns page on alliance w UAE + anti-Islamist approach. Still doesn’t mean Turkey alliance; Egypt stayed out
TurkeyAxios Reporter93%match95¢+2%
Turkey has caught up with us Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signed a trilateral defense agreement in Mecca. In fact, this is Turkey's accession to the bilateral defense agreement signed between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in September 2025. As then, Pakistan announced that according to the agreement, any attack against one of the three countries will be considered an attack against all of them. The agreement, the full details of which have not been published, is expected to have various implications, surrounding: Saudi Arabia's dealing with the Iranian threat to its energy infrastructure (the Iranian attacks against it in the war did not lead to military intervention by Pakistan despite the defense agreement between them from September); the expanding exchange of blows between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, who imposed a blockade on the kingdom in the Red Sea; The expansion of Pakistan's influence in the Gulf after Kuwait also ratified a security cooperation agreement with it about a week ago; and the impact on Turkish foreign policy in the Middle East and its relations with Iran. All of these will be expressed in the future, and we will still have to study them. The same applies to the implications of the agreement for Israel, which are still too early to determine. But... on a regional-strategic level, I think it can already be said that this is another problematic development, which the government's short-sighted policy contributed to. From the perspective of a regional balance of power, this is a problematic development for Israel. Four poles stand out in the Middle East today: Israel, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran. Israel's gradual escape from the pit of October 7 and the multi-front war, Turkey's increasing weight, especially after the fall of Assad in Syria, and the attacks on Iran and its proxies have changed the balance of power between the poles. A connection between Saudi Arabia and Turkey [which is a magnificent "flick" after the rift between them in the Khashoggi affair!] is apparently perceived by the two regional powers as a move that balances Israel's power. Thus, while an Israeli-Saudi connection could have been a game changer, creating Iran's steps, a Saudi rapprochement with Turkey could actually strengthen the Turkish-Qatari Sunni axis, which threatens Jordan, Egypt, and the Emirates. It seems that the agreement between Riyadh and Ankara, It further delays normalization with Saudi Arabia – the most essential strategic development for strengthening Israel’s position and integration in the region – which has been “shelved” on the shelf for the time being. It is very possible that the agreement is an expression of a missed opportunity in the coming years at least, against the backdrop of the perception of Arab countries, led by Saudi Arabia, that see Israel as an aggressive state that strives to expand and undermines regional stability. The bottom line is that there is “no vacuum” in the geopolitics of the Middle East. The “elephant in a china shop” policy in the region, adopted by the Israeli government, led to the freezing of normalization moves and the organization of a moderate camp in the region. This, in a way that paved the way for the emergence and entry of new players, not always positive. Shabbat Shalom
We reported in the edition: New details on the effort to include normalization with Saudi Arabia in the American agreement with Riyadh. In recent days, Israel has been exerting significant pressure on the American administration to include the issue of normalization with Saudi Arabia in the framework of the understandings surrounding the civil nuclear agreement. According to sources familiar with the matter, for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this is not only a strategic move but also a significant political goal. According to the same sources, Netanyahu says in closed conversations that he is interested in achieving the "next big thing" - a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia even before the elections. The issue of the Saudi civil nuclear program also came up in the Prime Minister's meeting with President Donald Trump, and according to a senior political source, it was Trump who linked the issue to the expansion of the Abraham Accords, "and it's good that it did." Netanyahu himself hinted at this before leaving for Washington, when he said that one of the goals of his visit was to "expand the circle of peace." Expanding the Abraham Accords is one of Trump's flagship foreign policy goals, and Jerusalem is trying to leverage this ambition. Furthermore, President Trump still dreams of winning the Nobel Peace Prize, and achieving this goal could significantly help his chances.
Saudi Arabiatvalmasirah94%match10¢-20%
White House Spokesperson Caroline Leavitt: Trump confirms that the civilian nuclear energy agreement with Saudi Arabia is contingent upon its joining the Abraham Accords; failure to join will nullify the agreement. The proposed civilian nuclear agreement with Riyadh prioritizes American companies and puts Washington's interests first.
Saudi Arabiafoxnews.com94%match13¢-38%
Live: Trump ties U.S. nuclear energy agreement to Saudi Arabia joining Abraham Accords
Saudi ArabiaABC Reporter94%match13¢-38%
Trump also said "it was always understood" by Sec Wright + Saudi Arabia that "in order for that deal to go through" Riyadh had to join the Abraham Accords--although that term is not in the agreement signed this week & the Saudi govhasn't publicly responded to Trump's demand.
Saudi Arabiairan__7vwd97%match12¢-33%
Trump: In order to sign a civilian nuclear energy agreement with Saudi Arabia, it must join the Abraham Accords. Normalization with Israel
The US is pressuring Saudi Arabia to sign the "Abraham Accords" or the nuclear agreement will be null and void.
White House Spokesperson: The non-military civilian nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia is completely contingent on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords. This deal is contingent on that and we hope to see them join the Abraham Accords very soon. The President has spoken directly with the Saudis about it - we are still talking to them and the deal is not closed.
Saudi ArabiaChannel 12 (N12)93%match19¢-58%
Assaf Yehezkeli White House spokeswoman confirms that Saudi nuclear deal is conditional on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords
Saudi Arabiacnbc93%match18¢-56%
President Donald Trump said Thursday that Saudi Arabia will not enrich uranium under the landmark nuclear deal signed with the U.S. this week. • • Trump said the nuclear agreement is subject to Riyadh establishing diplomatic relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords. • • “There will be no enrichment of material!” the president said in a Truth Social post. The deal “is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords,” he said. • • More details:
Saudi Arabiaaljazeera.com92%match21¢-62%
Live: Netanyahu hails prospect of Saudi Arabia joining Abraham Accords over nuclear deal
On Thursday, August 1, US President Donald Trump announced in a message on the social network X that a civilian nuclear agreement between the US Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia would be approved, but this agreement is conditional on Riyadh joining the Ibrahim Accords. In this message, Trump suddenly referred to the "civil" nature of Iran's nuclear program and wrote: "The civil nuclear agreement that is being worked out between the US Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia relates only to civilian uses, such as the programs that Iran, the United Arab Emirates and other countries have. But this agreement is entirely conditional on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords.” The US President said that in this agreement “there will be no enrichment of [nuclear] materials” and that the US is not opposed to civilian nuclear facilities without enrichment @VahidOOnLine The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Thursday that Saudi Arabia’s joining the Abraham Accords would be a historic development on the path to peace in the Middle East. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office added that the joint US-Israeli military action against the Islamic Republic and the weakening of Tehran’s “terrorist” axis have paved the way for the expansion of the circle of peace. @VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
Saudi ArabiaMaariv Reporter95%match20¢-60%
Trump not only clarified the nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, he changed its framing. After the agreement was presented as a US-Saudi deal, he stated that its approval was entirely conditional on Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords. This may indicate a behind-the-scenes Israeli effort to return normalization to the center of the deal. The big question remains: What does Saudi Arabia think of the new condition, and does its demand for progress on the Palestinian issue still stand?
Saudi ArabiaN12 Reporter95%match20¢-60%
On the one hand, Trump confirms the reports that there are such negotiations with Saudi Arabia and also says that the agreement will be signed, on the other hand, he claims that it is conditional on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords. The question is what will be realized and what will remain a declaration. [in reply to: The Israeli statement refers to these words of Trump today in Truth Social: "The agreement in the civil nuclear field (there will be no enrichment of material!) that was signed between the United States Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia, and which concerns only non-military uses - such as those already existing in Iran, the United Arab Emirates (and other countries) - will be approved, but it is completely conditional on Saudi Arabia joining the honorable and successful Abraham Accords. The United States is not opposed to civil nuclear facilities (without uranium enrichment)]
Saudi Arabiaynet.co.il92%match19¢-58%
Prime Minister in English: "Saudi Arabia's accession to the Abraham Accords - a historic leap forward for peace"
The Prime Minister's Office in a statement in English after Trump's announcement: The joint military action of the US and Israel against the murderous regime in Iran and the suppression of the Iranian terror axis by Israel have created the possibility of expanding the circle of peace. As President Trump said - Saudi Arabia's accession to the Abraham Accords will be a historic leap forward for peace in the Middle East. [in reply to: Trump in dramatic statement: Civil nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia - subject to its accession to the Abraham Accords]
Saudi ArabiaAxios Reporter96%match82¢+12%
The nuclear agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia was signed yesterday. Saudi Arabia's joining the Abraham Accords does not seem realistic at this stage.
Saudi Arabianytimes.com96%match80¢+15%
Live: President Trump said Thursday that the United States’ recently announced nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia hinged on the Gulf kingdom’s willingness to join the Abraham Accords, appearing to condition an agreement on Riyadh’s willingness to open diplomatic relations with Israel. Trump’s statement, shared on Truth Social, followed concerns in Israel over the deal, including that it could fuel a regional arms race and that it was being sidestepped in the process. It could also create a major road block to the deal itself, as Saudi officials have repeatedly stated that they will not recognize Israel without a pathway toward a Palestinian state.
Trump: Nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia depends on compromise with Israel The civil nuclear deal being negotiated between the US Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia (which would explicitly not include any enrichment of materials) and dedicated solely to civilian uses, like what Iran, the UAE and others have previously enjoyed, will be ratified. But its implementation is entirely conditional on Saudi Arabia joining the "highly respected and successful Abraham Accords." The United States has no objection to civilian nuclear facilities (without enrichment). @Farsna - Link
Saudi Arabiatheguardian.com93%match21¢-62%
Live: Donald Trump says nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia is 'totally subject' to country joining the Abraham accords
Saudi Arabiaiclalturan96%match21¢-62%
Trump announced that the agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia is a "civilian nuclear agreement" and that there will be no uranium enrichment. The ratification of the agreement is contingent upon Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords.
Trump: The nuclear agreement being negotiated between the US Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia will be approved but remains conditional on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords.
Saudi ArabiaCBS Reporter96%match21¢-62%
Trump says Saudi Arabia has to joint Abraham Accords, normalizing relations with Israel, as part of the civilian nuclear deal
Saudi ArabiaGalatz92%match23¢-65%
Trump: We will approve the civil nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia - subject to its joining the Abraham Accords @shakedvikinski

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.

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