Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?Saudi Arabia
Open$316Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 8% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES8¢
NO93¢
as of
What moved the odds?
13 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The Atlantic: Saudi Arabia's rejection of the Abraham Accords in favor of a strategic agreement with Pakistan and Turkey points to the contours of the future.
Geopolitical messages that MBS is sending • • - Instead of Abraham accords, it is Mecca accords • • - Instead of a GCC defense pact, Saudi Arabia is looking to Turkey, Pakistan • • Turns page on alliance w UAE + anti-Islamist approach. Still doesn’t mean Turkey alliance; Egypt stayed out
President Donald Trump said Thursday that Saudi Arabia will not enrich uranium under the landmark nuclear deal signed with the U.S. this week. • • Trump said the nuclear agreement is subject to Riyadh establishing diplomatic relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords. • • “There will be no enrichment of material!” the president said in a Truth Social post. The deal “is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords,” he said. • • More details:
On Thursday, August 1, US President Donald Trump announced in a message on the social network X that a civilian nuclear agreement between the US Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia would be approved, but this agreement is conditional on Riyadh joining the Ibrahim Accords. In this message, Trump suddenly referred to the "civil" nature of Iran's nuclear program and wrote: "The civil nuclear agreement that is being worked out between the US Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia relates only to civilian uses, such as the programs that Iran, the United Arab Emirates and other countries have. But this agreement is entirely conditional on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords.”
The US President said that in this agreement “there will be no enrichment of [nuclear] materials” and that the US is not opposed to civilian nuclear facilities without enrichment
@VahidOOnLine
The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Thursday that Saudi Arabia’s joining the Abraham Accords would be a historic development on the path to peace in the Middle East. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office added that the joint US-Israeli military action against the Islamic Republic and the weakening of Tehran’s “terrorist” axis have paved the way for the expansion of the circle of peace.
@VahidOOnLine @VahidOnline
Prime Minister in English: "Saudi Arabia's accession to the Abraham Accords - a historic leap forward for peace"
The Prime Minister's Office in a statement in English after Trump's announcement: The joint military action of the US and Israel against the murderous regime in Iran and the suppression of the Iranian terror axis by Israel have created the possibility of expanding the circle of peace. As President Trump said - Saudi Arabia's accession to the Abraham Accords will be a historic leap forward for peace in the Middle East. [in reply to: Trump in dramatic statement: Civil nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia - subject to its accession to the Abraham Accords]
The nuclear agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia was signed yesterday. Saudi Arabia's joining the Abraham Accords does not seem realistic at this stage.
Trump: Nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia depends on compromise with Israel The civil nuclear deal being negotiated between the US Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia (which would explicitly not include any enrichment of materials) and dedicated solely to civilian uses, like what Iran, the UAE and others have previously enjoyed, will be ratified. But its implementation is entirely conditional on Saudi Arabia joining the "highly respected and successful Abraham Accords." The United States has no objection to civilian nuclear facilities (without enrichment). @Farsna - Link
Trump announced that the agreement between the US and Saudi Arabia is a "civilian nuclear agreement" and that there will be no uranium enrichment. The ratification of the agreement is contingent upon Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords.
Trump: The nuclear agreement being negotiated between the US Department of Energy and Saudi Arabia will be approved but remains conditional on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords.
Trump: Nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia will be approved subject to its joining the Abraham Accords
Dramatic turn: Trump announces that the nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia is subject to its joining the Abraham Accords.
President Trump tells Saudi Arabia to stop delaying and join the Abraham Accords: “It’s NOW TIME.”
Where does the news lean?
46YES10NO70neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
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