Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
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Market pricing makes Belgium the favorite at 16% across 11 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Netanyahu claims he will not allow the establishment of a Palestinian state in the Gaza Strip or the occupied West Bank as long as he remains in office. In response to statements by the head of the United Arab List (Ra'am), Mansour Abbas, who said that "the State of Palestine exists and is recognized by most of the world, with the exception of the United States and Israel," calling on Washington and Tel Aviv to recognize it.
Germany moves to criminalise denial of Israel’s existence while refusing to recognise Palestine
Belgium considers becoming latest EU country to recognise Palestinian statehood
Videos show police in Germany forcibly arresting peaceful protesters who were demonstrating in support of Gaza in the capital city of Berlin.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.
An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.