Which company has #1 AI model end of November? (Style Control On)

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Market pricing makes Google the favorite at 78% across 35 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

All further outcomes (5 more):

Company I · Company J · Company K · Company L · Company M

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

MetaFrench Media97%match3¢-67%
"A much larger and more advanced category of models, which brings us to the forefront" of AI: with Muse Wonder, Meta claims to have caught up with leaders OpenAI and Anthropic.
Metam.thepaper.cn94%match4¢-75%
Meta unveils its most powerful model, Muse Wonder: comparable to GPT-6, Zuckerberg says it has reached the "cutting-edge" level of AI.
Metalemonde.fr94%match4¢-75%
The Meta group unveils its new AI model, Muse Wonder, intended to rival ChatGPT and Claude.
Metachosun.com95%match96¢+3%
Meta Unveils High-Performance AI Model ‘Muse Wonder’… Ranks 2nd in Performance Evaluations
Metabiz.chosun.com95%match96¢+3%
Meta Unveils High-Performance AI Model ‘Muse Wonder’… Ranks 2nd in Performance Evaluations
Metazdnet.co.kr92%match4¢-75%
Meta Unveils First Frontier AI Model… “Implementing AI Assistant by Leveraging Long-Term Memory”
Metaafr.com92%match4¢-75%
Zuckerberg says Meta has caught up to AI rivals (thanks to wunderkind)
Metaspa.gov.sa93%match4¢-75%
Science and Technology / Meta launches two new AI models with advanced capabilities
Metanikkei93%match3¢-67%
US-based Meta claims its new AI "comes up to the forefront," narrowing the gap with Anthropique
Metayna.co.kr97%match3¢-67%
Meta Catches Up with OpenAI and Antropics... Unveils New AI Model 'Muse Wonder'
Metachosun.com94%match3¢-67%
Meta Strikes While the Iron Is Hot... Announces New High-Performance AI Model Equipped with Muse
Metabarrons.com96%match3¢-67%
Meta Says New Muse AI Models Rival OpenAI and Anthropic
Metalefigaro.fr93%match4¢-75%
Artificial intelligence: Meta unveils a new "cutting-edge" technology model
Metazerohedge93%match4¢-75%
*META DEBUTS MUSE WONDER AI MODEL WITH 'FRONTIER' CAPABILITIES
Metaaxios.com97%match5¢-80%
[UPDATE] Meta unveils new frontier-class AI models to compete with OpenAI, Anthropic (first reported at 2026-10-12T17:00:15Z)
MetaMark Zuckerberg93%match3¢-67%
Meta has released Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full, achieving Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3 scores of 52 and 56 at max reasoning effort - each a material gain over Muse Spark 1.3 (max) at 48, with a release gap of only 6 weeks • • Muse Wonder is available for users on Meta’s first-party API, while Muse Wonder Full is currently only available for Muse Code users. Meta notes that each model is designed for personal and professional agent use • • Congratulations to @AIatMeta, @finkd, and @alexandr_wang on the release! • • Key Takeaways: • • ➤ Both models exhibit a material jump in overall Intelligence Index score. Muse Wonder Full (max) improves on Muse Spark 1.3 (max) across all ten Intelligence Index evaluations, gaining 8 points to 56. The largest gains were seen in agentic evaluations: Terminal-Bench 4.0 (+24 points, 33% to 57%), GDPval-AA v2.1 (+176 Elo, 1681 to 1857), and AA-Briefcase (+148 Elo, 1581 to 1729). Muse Wonder (max) gains 4 Intelligence Index points and lands at 52, with notable improvements vs. Muse Spark 1.3 (max) in Terminal-Bench 4.0 (33% to 52%) and AutomationBench-AA (58% to 68%) • • ➤ Muse Wonder Full (max) places in the top three on six of the ten Intelligence Index evaluations, and is particularly strong in agentic knowledge work and scientific reasoning. In agentic knowledge work, it narrowly leads on GDP.pdf (33%), ranks #2 on GDPval-AA v2.1 (1857 Elo), and #3 on both AA-Briefcase (1729 Elo) and AutomationBench-AA (71%). In scientific reasoning, it tops the CritPt leaderboard at 33% and ranks #3 on SciCode with 63%. This builds on the relative strengths of Muse Spark 1.3 (max), which also showed particular ability in these two domains • • ➤ Both models use fewer output tokens than Muse Spark 1.3 (max). Muse Wonder (max) and Muse Wonder Full (max) each use around 54k output tokens per Intelligence Index task, down ~10% from Muse Spark 1.3 (max, 60k). This usage is lower than similarly intelligent models Gemini 4 Argon (high, 62k) and Claude Fable 5.1 (max w/ fallback, 78k), but higher than GPT-6.1 Sol (max, 38k) and GPT-6 Astra (max, 27k). Muse Wonder Full (max) uses 16% fewer input tokens per Intelligence Index task than Muse Wonder (max) (6.44M vs 7.69M), meaning it is both more intelligent and more token-efficient • • ➤ Cost per Task for Muse Wonder (max) lands higher than most similarly intelligent models. Despite efficient output token use, premium API pricing ($4 per million input tokens, $20 per million output tokens) and high input token use (7.69M per task) push Muse Wonder (max)’s cost to $4.52 per Intelligence Index task. This is lower than Claude Fable 5.1 (max w/ fallback, $7.63), Claude Opus 5.5 (max w/ fallback, $5.98), and Claude Sonnet 5.5 (max w/ fallback, $5.46), but higher than GPT-6 Astra (max, $3.26), Gemini 4 Argon (high, $1.99), GPT-6.1 Sol (max, $0.72), and its predecessor Muse Spark 1.3 (max, $1.60). Per-token pricing is not currently available for Muse Wonder Full, so no Cost per Task figure can be estimated at this stage • • ➤ Both models gain significantly in Coding Agent performance. Muse Wonder Full achieves 68 on the Artificial Analysis Coding Agents Index at max effort in Muse Code, alongside Claude Code with Sonnet 5.5 (max, 68) and Opus 5.5 (max, 66). Muse Wonder (max) scores 63. These represent material gains over Muse Code with Muse Spark 1.3 (max), which scores 54 • • Other details for the two new models: • • ➤ Context windows: 1M tokens each, unchanged from Muse Spark 1.3 • ➤ Pricing: for Muse Wonder, $4 input / $0.20 cached input / $20 output per 1M tokens. Pricing per token is not yet announced for Muse Wonder Full • ➤ Input modalities: text, image, video, and audio • ➤ Output modalities: text • ➤ Availability: Muse Wonder is available on Meta's first-party API and Muse Code at launch, while Muse Wonder Full is only available to Muse Code users
Metaaxios97%match3¢-67%
Meta unveils new frontier-class AI models to compete with OpenAI, Anthropic
Metafaststocknewss95%match3¢-67%
ZUCKERBERG SAYS META $META HAS REACHED THE AI FRONTIER • • He rejected calls for a slowdown and signaled further spending, saying Meta is "already working on the next step up." On AI safety, he said responsibility should fall on the individual lab to ensure model safety, per FT. • • Meta released its Muse Wonder model family earlier today.
Metacls.cn94%match3¢-67%
After 14 months of development, Meta launched the Muse Wonder AI model with "cutting-edge capabilities".
Metadbws.io95%match3¢-67%
Meta Says New AI Model Is State-of-the-Art, Will Make Muse Agent Smarter -- WSJ
Metaaxios.com97%match3¢-67%
Meta unveils new frontier-class AI models to compete with OpenAI, Anthropic
Metanytimes.com93%match3¢-67%
Meta Unveils New Series of Advanced A.I. Models
MetaNews93%match3¢-67%
*META DEBUTS MUSE WONDER AI MODEL WITH FRONTIER CAPABILITIES
MetaNews93%match3¢-67%
*META DEBUTS MUSE WONDER AI MODEL WITH 'FRONTIER' CAPABILITIES
Metastockmktnewz92%match3¢-67%
Meta Platforms $META Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang just posted this: • • “introducing muse wonder • • our new frontier model. state-of-the-art at personal agents and professional agents.”
Googlebusinessinsider.com91%match50¢+56%
Exclusive: Google is about to roll out a new AI model. Employees say they're testing another that's way better.
Anthropicstockmktnewz96%match62¢+39%
The battle of the AIs continues • • Google overtakes Anthropic???
Mistralleparisien.fr92%match100¢
The head of Mistral asserts that his company is "a few months away" from catching up with the American giants of artificial intelligence.
Mistraletnews.com92%match0¢
France’s Mistral Unveils 1 Trillion-Parameter Open AI Model… “Surpasses Chinese Competitors”
Mistralalarabiya_bn97%match0¢
French AI startup Mistral has unveiled a new model, ending a gap of nearly five months between its major releases. The company claims the new model outperforms many competing models. Founded three years ago, Mistral is widely regarded as the biggest European competitor to US and Chinese AI companies, but it hadn't released a new model since May. #Arabic_Business

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

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