Which companies will the US take a stake in?

OpenOutcomes20as of

Market pricing makes GlobalFoundries the favorite at 93% across 20 tracked outcomes, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

IonQ19%
TSMC12%

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

GlobalFoundrieschinesewsj97%match80¢+16%
The U.S. Department of Commerce will acquire a 1% stake in GlobalFoundries and plans to provide the company with $300 million in funding to develop silicon photonics technology needed for data centers.
GlobalFoundriesyna.co.kr95%match79¢+18%
U.S. Government Provides $300 Million in Support to Domestic Semiconductor Company GlobalFoundries
The US Navy has awarded Lockheed Martin a contract worth approximately $850 million to continue advanced design and development work on the Trident II sea-launched ballistic missile. • Reporting by: @AAhronheim •
The US government has signed a contract with Lockheed Martin to produce Patriot missiles for $4.7 billion – media Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) said the U.S. government has awarded it a preliminary contract worth $4.7 billion to continue critical accelerated production of Patriot interceptor missiles. According to Reuters, the contract to improve the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3 MSE) missile segment follows a seven-year agreement with the US Department of Defense to more than triple annual production. ...
The Pentagon has reached an agreement to accelerate the production of missiles for Patriot air defense systems, — WSJ The US Department of Defense and weapons manufacturer Lockheed Martin have signed a $4.7 billion contract for accelerated production of PAC-3 MSE interceptor missiles. This contract is an extension of the previous contract and will allow for increased missile deliveries to American and allied forces, the publication reports, citing a statement from Lockheed Martin. Recall that PAC-3 missiles for Patriot systems are the most effective means of countering ballistic missiles.
Lockheed Martinclashreport99%match63¢+46%
The Pentagon has awarded Lockheed Martin a $4.7 billion contract to produce Patriot (PAC-3 MSE) interceptors. • • Source: WSJ
Lockheed MartinAsharq99%match59¢+56%
WSJ: Lockheed Martin wins $4.7 billion Pentagon contract to supply Patriot missiles
Lockheed Martinstockmktnewz99%match65¢+42%
Lockheed Martin $LMT was just awarded a $4.7 Billion contract with the Army for the production of • • "PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement missiles"
Pentagon strikes 7-year deal with Boeing and Lockheed Martin to TRIPLE production of PAC-3 MSE missile seekers - Reuters
PENTAGON ANNOUNCES A DEAL WITH BOEING AND LOCKHEED MARTIN TO INCREASE PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF PAC-3 MSE SEEKERS BY THREE TIMES, ACCORDING TO A STATEMENT. ...
Lockheed Martinfirstsquawk98%match54¢+70%
PENTAGON ANNOUNCES A DEAL WITH BOEING AND LOCKHEED MARTIN TO INCREASE PRODUCTION CAPACITY OF PAC-3 MSE SEEKERS BY THREE TIMES, ACCORDING TO A STATEMENT.
AnthropicAl Jazeera English99%match91¢-3%
Trump orders federal agencies to stop using Anthropic as dispute escalates
AnthropicReuters98%match91¢-3%
President Trump said he was directing every federal agency to immediately cease all use of Anthropic's technology, adding there would be a six-month phase out for agencies like the Defense Department who use the company's products
AnthropicThe Spectator Index99%match91¢-3%
BREAKING: Trump orders Federal Government agencies immediately stop using Anthropic's technology
AnthropicBNO News98%match91¢-3%
JUST IN: Trump orders federal government agencies to immediately cease use of Anthropic's technologies
AnthropicFinancialJuice99%match9¢+33%
Pentagon's Michael on Anthropic: The US offered concessions
AnthropicCGTN America98%match86¢+2%
ANTHROPIC: DEPARTMENT OF WAR THREATENED TO REMOVE US FROM THEIR SYSTEMS IF WE MAINTAIN SAFEGUARDS; ALSO THREATENED TO DESIGNATE US “SUPPLY CHAIN RISK"
Anthropictradfi news98%match9¢+33%
*PENTAGON ASKED DEFENSE FIRMS BOEING AND LOCKHEED TO ASSESS ANTHROPIC RELIANCE $BA $LMT
Boeingtradfi news99%match79¢+16%
*PENTAGON ASKED DEFENSE FIRMS BOEING AND LOCKHEED TO ASSESS ANTHROPIC RELIANCE $BA $LMT
AnthropicBloomberg98%match86¢+2%
The Pentagon is close to cutting ties with Anthropic and may label the AI company a supply chain risk after becoming frustrated with restrictions on how it can use the technology, Axios reported
AnthropicAxios98%match82¢+7%
Exclusive: Pentagon warns Anthropic will "pay a price" as feud escalates
Anthropiczerohedge98%match85¢+4%
This information would have been very useful to investors who put in money at a 380BN valuation just 3 days ago. [Quoting @DavidLawler10] > NEW with @m_ccuri: The Pentagon is threatening to cut ties with Anthropic because the company insists on restricting the military’s use of Claude to surveil Americans or develop fully autonomous weapons. Full story:
AnthropicJennifer Griffin98%match65¢+35%
NEW with @m_ccuri: The Pentagon is threatening to cut ties with Anthropic because the company insists on restricting the military’s use of Claude to surveil Americans or develop fully autonomous weapons. Full story:
AnthropicAxios98%match66¢+33%
NEW with @m_ccuri: The Pentagon is threatening to cut ties with Anthropic because the company insists on restricting the military’s use of Claude to surveil Americans or develop fully autonomous weapons. Full story:
Anthropic*Walter Bloomberg98%match66¢+33%
PENTAGON MAY CUT TIES WITH ANTHROPIC OVER AI RESTRICTIONS The United States Department of Defense is considering ending its partnership with Anthropic PBC after the company declined to relax certain restrictions on how the Pentagon uses its artificial intelligence tools,…
TSMCFirst Squawk99%match31¢-61%
TSMC’S US INVESTMENT PLANS AT HEART OF $250BN PUZZLE FOR CHIP SECTOR.
AndurilReuters98%match83¢-1%
Anduril aims for $8 billion fundraising, Bloomberg News reports
AndurilReuters98%match83¢-1%
Anduril aims for $8 billion fundraising, Bloomberg News reports
TSMCFirst Squawk99%match74¢+19%
Taiwan rebuffs U.S. push to absorb 40% of its chip supply chain-CNBC
TSMCReuters98%match77¢+14%
Taiwan says 40% shift of chip capacity to US is 'impossible'

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refers to the U.S. federal government acquiring direct equity ownership, voting shares, convertible rights treated as equity, or equivalent ownership interests in the listed company or of a legal vehicle that primarily owns the listed company. Stakes acquired through independent entities entirely controlled or owned by the U.S. federal government (e.g. a sovereign wealth fund, state-owned enterprise, etc.) will count. Non-equity financial instruments or stakes acquired by private persons or entities not owned or controlled by the US federal government will not count; acquisitions by by states, pensions, index or mutual funds, or consortia will not qualify. An official US federal government announcement of a completed qualifying acquisition, or of a binding agreement to complete a qualifying acquisition, within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. Speculation, suggestions, plans, or other announcements which do not announce a completed acquisition or a binding acquisition agreement, however, will not count. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government and a consensus of credible reporting.

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