Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Meta Releases Open Source AI Model… US Big Tech’s ‘Open AI’ Rises Amidst China’s Chase

Meta releases new AI model as Zuckerberg lays out vision

A few thoughts on the $META AI model's progress, because I think it is significant. • • 1. It does seem that $META has now leapfrogged $GOOGL in model quality when it comes to Muse 1.2 for many use cases, which is very surprising given the timeframe. • • 2. This is still the "Muse Spark" family of models; $META already told us that bigger and more capable models (Watermelon) are coming. Given Muse Spark 1.2's performance already, the Watermelon family should be in the Fable category, which is impressive. • • 3. It does seem like $META is finally on a product scaling velocity curve (so the scaling foundations of their lab are set after 1 year of overhaul). And the shipping velocity is very good (3 releases in 4 months). • • 4. Given the recent rumored price hike of DeepSeek (if you use DeepSeek directly), it is clear that having enough compute to serve customers is critical. It doesn't help you if you have a great model, but most can't use it. $META is one of the few companies with compute capabilities comparable to, if not larger than, those of Anthropic or OpenAI.

Alibaba launches its largest AI model and moves closer to competing with American giants #Arabic_Business

Alibaba launches its largest AI model and moves closer to competing with American giants #Arabic_Business

US-Listed Shares of Alibaba Gain 4.3% Premarket After Co Unveils New AI Model

Alibaba Unveils 2.4 Trillion Parameter 'Q1 3.8'... Igniting Frontier AI Race in China

Premarket movers • • Mag 7 stocks are all lower (Nvidia -2.4%, Amazon -1.4%, Microsoft -1.9%, Tesla -1.7%, Alphabet -1.5%, Meta Platforms -1.5%, Apple -0.1%). • • Chipmakers and other AI-related firms are set to extend their selloff amid a broad unwind of the tech trade. Marvell Technology (MRVL) -2%, Qualcomm -2%. Markets are undergoing another "Deep Seek" Moment after a surprise breakthrough from Chinese AI startup Moonshot sent it to the top of the Arena coding benchmark • • Autoliv (ALV) falls 5% after the airbag and seatbelt maker reported second-quarter adjusted earnings per share that narrowly missed consensus estimates. • • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) tumbles 10% after the robotic-surgery company maintained its forecast for Worldwide da Vinci robotic procedure growth for the full year, even as its second-quarter results came in ahead of the average analyst estimates. • • Netflix (NFLX) falls 10% after the streaming giant forecast a second consecutive quarter of slowing sales growth. Analysts note that the tepid current quarter forecast is overshadowing an otherwise in-line quarter. • • Staar Surgical (STAA) drops 8% after the maker of implantable lenses posted preliminary second quarter results where sales in Europe, theMiddle East and Africa declined by a low single-digit percentage, reflecting ongoing turmoil in the Middle East.

What the SpaceX–Anthropic Deal Means • • Two weeks ago, we published a note laying out what GPT-5.5's release implied. The conclusion was simple: whoever secures compute first, in greater volume, and with greater reliability ultimately takes the win. With OpenAI's 30GW roadmap dwarfing Anthropic's 7–8GW, we closed by arguing that the structural advantage on compute sat with OpenAI. • • Less than a fortnight later, that conclusion is being tested. On May 6, Anthropic signed a single-tenant lease for the entirety of Colossus 1 with SpaceXAI — the infrastructure subsidiary that consolidates Elon Musk's xAI and SpaceX. The asset carries more than 220,000 GPUs and 300MW of power, and crucially, is scheduled to come online within this month. It served as the capstone of Anthropic's April blitz, which added 13.8GW of cumulative capacity over the span of a single month. On headline numbers alone, OpenAI took more than a year to stack 18GW; Anthropic has put 13.8GW in the ground in thirty days. The takeaways break down into three. • • First, the compute pecking order has been redrawn again. Anthropic has now swept up the AWS expansion (5GW, with $100B+ in spend commitments over a decade), Google + Broadcom (3.5GW of TPU), Google Cloud (5GW alongside a $40B investment), and now SpaceXAI's Colossus 1 (0.3GW). Cumulative committed capacity, inclusive of pre-April allocations, sits at 14.8GW. This is still only half of OpenAI's 2030 target of 30GW, but the fact that the SpaceX lease will be live inside a month makes "deliverability" a qualitatively different proposition. • • Second, Elon Musk is the plaintiff in an active lawsuit against OpenAI — and at the same time, the supplier handing 220,000+ GPUs and 300MW of power, in one block, to OpenAI's most formidable competitor. The timing matters: the deal was struck in the middle of the Musk–Altman trial. We read this as a deliberate pincer with OpenAI in the middle. In the courtroom, Musk works to dismantle the moral legitimacy of OpenAI's leadership; in the market, he arms Anthropic to absorb OpenAI's revenue and user base. • • Third, the structure is financial-engineering perfection — a clean win-win for both sides. xAI can recognize $6B of annual revenue from a single contract, an amount that almost precisely offsets its Q1 2026 annualized net loss of $6B. It also accelerates the cleanup of SpaceXAI's pre-IPO balance sheet, with the entity now being floated at around $1.75T. Anthropic, on the other side, converts roughly $5B of spend into what it expects to be $15B of ARR via the coming inference-revenue surge. • • (Mirae Asset Securities, May 8, 2026)