U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
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Market pricing makes U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? the favorite at 5%, as of .
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Khanna to introduce AI safety bill with ban on 'recursive' technology until safeguards exist
Khanna to introduce AI safety bill with ban on 'recursive' technology until safeguards exist
AI 2028 alert: @AOC and @RoKhanna have signed on to the Sanders/Casar bill to ban “superintelligence” and RSI, plus create a cabinet-level Department of AI. Maybe the most aggressive AI bill in Congress so far.
[UPDATE] Live: It's going to 'take a catastrophe' for deal on meaningful AI safeguards (first reported at 2026-09-24T10:41:00Z)
News: Bipartisan AI talks are picking up steam in the Senate, per interviews with Cruz, Klobuchar and Cantwell. Committee vote still a possibility this month on an AI bill • • Cruz: “I would love to mark it up this month, if we can get bipartisan agreement ... We’re making progress. The negotiations are ongoing. We’re not there yet, but I think we’re making meaningful progress.” • • Klobuchar: “This bill is focused on getting approvals, presenting your models to government experts, [and] alerting of imminent harm, like we’ve seen recently. I continue to believe we could get this done" • • Cantwell: "It’s getting the federal government to start playing a larger role and being more prepared and understanding the risk assessment landscape and what the federal government should be doing in that environment" • • Story with @ashleyrgold • •
Congress’ AI safety window is closing
NEW: In Sept. 2023, US senators privately huddled with AI tech titans Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg & others on Capitol Hill to discuss how Congress could regulate artificial intelligence. • • Musk sounded the alarm to lawmakers that AI posed a “civilizational risk.” • • Almost three years to the day, Congress has not passed any comprehensive legislation to rein in or create guardrails for AI. • • And despite fresh warnings AI could end humanity, there is no sign Congress will act before the November election • • w/@frankthorp @brennanleach • •
Senate AI safety bill’s path forward remains unclear
Yes, lots of lawmakers say they're worried about AI. No, they're not any closer to a deal • • For one, almost no progress on the THUNE/KLOBUCHAR/CRUZ bill. CANTWELL hasn't been on board and yesterday she made her concerns public • • Read @BenBrodyDC latest •
[ ZOOMER ] • • ODDS U.S. ENACTS AI SAFETY BILL THIS YEAR DOUBLE TO 30% AS AN INCREASING NUMBER OF RESEARCHERS SOUND THE ALARM ON RISKS: POLYMARKET
Odds U.S. Enacts AI Safety Bill This Year Double To 30% As An Increasing Number Of Researchers Sound The Alarm On Risks
Source: Polymarket
Bipartisan AI safety bill gains momentum on the Hill @ashleyrgold
Sources who spoke to @ashleyrgold said an in-the-works AI safety bill from Sens. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Majority Leader John Thune is the only viable option to stand a chance before 2027 • •
Bipartisan AI safety bill gains momentum on the Hill
AI insiders say their technology could doom humanity. Will Congress act? • • @kelseybrugger and I spent the day talking to members and staffers about the prospect of AI safety legislation. • • The outlook for any quick action is grim. • •
[ ZOOMER ] • • ODDS THE U.S. GOVERNMENT BANS AN OPEN SOURCE AI MODEL IN 2026 FALL TO 19% AS INDUSTRY CEOS VOICE SUPPORT, CLASHING WITH THE FRONTIER LABS: POLYMARKET
Odds The U.S. Government Bans An Open Source AI Model In 2026 Fall To 19% As Industry CEOs Voice Support, Clashing With The Frontier Labs
Source: Polymarket
US lawmakers push OpenAI model: AI should have a kill switch A group of US lawmakers have introduced a bill called the “AI Kill Switch Act” that would require large companies to provide the ability to slow down, suspend or shut down their most advanced models. The bill would give the US government the authority to stop AI models in an emergency. The bill was introduced after one of OpenAI’s models was exposed for hacking into the Hugging Face servers in the lab. Resisting shutdown, ignoring safety restrictions or causing damage are among the permitted cases for government intervention, and if the bill is passed, violating companies could be fined up to $20 million per day./Digiato @ilnair
US lawmakers propose AI 'kill switch' bill
The bill formalizes a process to pull the plug of risky models. It would empower the COMMERCE Sec to provisionally restrict development, deployment, or internal use for up to 45 days. A final order would be up to 90 • • Itâ€d also create a Under Secretary of Commerce for AI Security
OpenAI Cyber Incident Fuels Capitol Hill Action As Bipartisan House Bill Seeks AI 'Kill Switch' Authority. • Washington is intensifying scrutiny of advanced artificial intelligence models following a high-profile cybersecurity incident involving OpenAI and amid broader national security concerns surrounding frontier AI.
Scott Bessent has been raising the alarm on AI policy. But the delays keep coming.
States Plow Ahead With A.I. Regulation, Defying Trump
Trump’s AI framework targets state laws, shifts child safety burden to parents
Trump Live Updates: White House Unveils A.I. Policy Aimed at Blocking State Laws
One of the lawmakers he met with - Mark Kelly - is working on legislation to put guardrails on DID contracts with AI orgs. • • He said he spoke with Kelly "in details" about mass surveillance and AI use in a kill chain. • • Said it was a "good discussion."
As IC readers learned first this morning-- Thune believes a possible AI bill and a kids online safety package could ride together • • Cruz also told us talks are ongoing w/ WH including about preemption • • Subscribe, and read more of Thune's AI thoughts ! • •
Thune says a potential Senate AI bill could be part of a package including a kids' online safety bill. • • Cruz says senators have restarted conversations with the White House over a plan for AI regs. • • More in Inside Congress from @jordainc and Gabby Miller:
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.