U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Open$199Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES5¢
NO96¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
[UPDATE] Live: It's going to 'take a catastrophe' for deal on meaningful AI safeguards (first reported at 2026-09-24T10:41:00Z)
Congress’ AI safety window is closing
NEW: In Sept. 2023, US senators privately huddled with AI tech titans Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg & others on Capitol Hill to discuss how Congress could regulate artificial intelligence. • • Musk sounded the alarm to lawmakers that AI posed a “civilizational risk.” • • Almost three years to the day, Congress has not passed any comprehensive legislation to rein in or create guardrails for AI. • • And despite fresh warnings AI could end humanity, there is no sign Congress will act before the November election • • w/@frankthorp @brennanleach • •
Yes, lots of lawmakers say they're worried about AI. No, they're not any closer to a deal • • For one, almost no progress on the THUNE/KLOBUCHAR/CRUZ bill. CANTWELL hasn't been on board and yesterday she made her concerns public • • Read @BenBrodyDC latest •
AI insiders say their technology could doom humanity. Will Congress act? • • @kelseybrugger and I spent the day talking to members and staffers about the prospect of AI safety legislation. • • The outlook for any quick action is grim. • •
States Plow Ahead With A.I. Regulation, Defying Trump
Trump’s AI framework targets state laws, shifts child safety burden to parents
Trump Live Updates: White House Unveils A.I. Policy Aimed at Blocking State Laws
Where does the news lean?
20YES13NO10neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.