US economic state at the end of 2026?

OpenOutcomes4as of

Market pricing makes Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%) the favorite at 62% across 4 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)62%
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)34%
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)5%
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)0%

What moved the odds?

17 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)nytimes.com92%match45¢-16%
Live: Officials at the Federal Reserve feel relatively confident about the state of the labor market, with the unemployment rate low and monthly jobs growth stable. Instead, they are chiefly focused on inflation, which is running well above the central bank’s 2 percent target. Policymakers are debating the need to raise interest rates to tame price pressures, which have been exacerbated by the energy shock caused by the war with Iran and the lingering impact of President Trump’s tariffs, among other factors. The labor market is not considered a main driver of inflation, with wage growth steady but not accelerating.
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)nytimes.com94%match36¢-6%
Live: Officials at the Federal Reserve feel relatively confident about the state of the labor market, with the unemployment rate low and monthly jobs growth stable. Instead, they are chiefly focused on inflation, which is running well above the central bank’s 2 percent target. Policymakers are debating the need to raise interest rates to tame price pressures, which have been exacerbated by the energy shock caused by the war with Iran and the lingering impact of President Trump’s tariffs, among other factors. The labor market is not considered a main driver of inflation, with wage growth steady but not accelerating.
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)nytimes.com92%match92¢+3%
Live: Officials at the Federal Reserve feel relatively confident about the state of the labor market, with the unemployment rate low and monthly jobs growth stable. Instead, they are chiefly focused on inflation, which is running well above the central bank’s 2 percent target. Policymakers are debating the need to raise interest rates to tame price pressures, which have been exacerbated by the energy shock caused by the war with Iran and the lingering impact of President Trump’s tariffs, among other factors. The labor market is not considered a main driver of inflation, with wage growth steady but not accelerating.
Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)nytimes.com93%match97¢+3%
Live: Officials at the Federal Reserve feel relatively confident about the state of the labor market, with the unemployment rate low and monthly jobs growth stable. Instead, they are chiefly focused on inflation, which is running well above the central bank’s 2 percent target. Policymakers are debating the need to raise interest rates to tame price pressures, which have been exacerbated by the energy shock caused by the war with Iran and the lingering impact of President Trump’s tariffs, among other factors. The labor market is not considered a main driver of inflation, with wage growth steady but not accelerating.
Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)Walter Bloomberg94%match13¢-62%
INVESTORS WARNED OF STAGFLATION RISKS • • CG Asset Management says investors should prepare for a low-growth, high-inflation environment after the U.S. imposed new tariffs on 60 trading partners, including the EU and China. • • The firm warns the tariffs, combined with energy market pressures and ongoing supply chain disruptions, could weigh on global economic growth while keeping inflation elevated.
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)marketnews_feed99%match37¢+68%
FED'S COLLINS STATES UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW. ...
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)firstsquawk99%match37¢+68%
FED'S COLLINS STATES UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS STILL FAIRLY LOW.
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)marketnews_feed99%match37¢+68%
FED'S COLLINS: THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW. ...
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)financialjuice99%match37¢+68%
Fed's Collins: The unemployment rate remains relatively low.
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)c_barraud98%match36¢-6%
Charting the Global Economy: US Job Growth Exceeds Projections - Bloomberg •
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)redboxwire99%match37¢+68%
Williams: U.S. Economy Has Remained Resilient With Labor Market Stability
Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)firstsquawk99%match37¢+68%
Williams: U.S. Economy Has Remained Resilient With Labor Market Stability
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)redboxwire98%match34¢
FED’S GOOLSBEE says demographic aging and limited immigration could push the U.S. toward tighter labor supply conditions
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)firstsquawk98%match34¢
FED’S GOOLSBEE says demographic aging and limited immigration could push the U.S. toward tighter labor supply conditions
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)marketnews_feed99%match38¢-11%
FED'S GOOLSBEE: IF PEOPLE PULL FORWARD FUTURE EXPECTED EARNINGS FOR SPENDING TODAY, IT COULD EASILY OVERHEAT THE ECONOMY. ...
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)financialjuice98%match38¢-11%
Fed's Goolsbee: If people pull forward future expected earnings for spending today, it could easily overheat the economy.
Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)Reuters99%match38¢-11%
Fed’s Goolsbee: if People Pull Forward Future Expected Earnings for Spending Today, It Could Easily Overheat the Economy

What is this event about?

The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.

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