US economic state at the end of 2026?Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)
Open$25Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 34% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES34¢
NO67¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Live: Officials at the Federal Reserve feel relatively confident about the state of the labor market, with the unemployment rate low and monthly jobs growth stable. Instead, they are chiefly focused on inflation, which is running well above the central bank’s 2 percent target. Policymakers are debating the need to raise interest rates to tame price pressures, which have been exacerbated by the energy shock caused by the war with Iran and the lingering impact of President Trump’s tariffs, among other factors. The labor market is not considered a main driver of inflation, with wage growth steady but not accelerating.
Where does the news lean?
7YES0NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve YES?
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release.
This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026.
If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026.
This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%.
This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%.
The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.
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