US Announces Diesel Export ban
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Market pricing makes October 31 the favorite at 21% across 2 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
October 3121%
September 3010%
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
October 31American business, energy and manufacturing groups on Wednesday urged President Trump to reject calls to impose a diesel export ban after the president said he was weighing this move in an effort to bring down rising fuel costs. Over 30 groups urged the president in a letter to “reject calls to ban or otherwise limit…93%match79¢
Chamber of Commerce, oil groups urge Trump to reject diesel export ban
September 30American business, energy and manufacturing groups on Wednesday urged President Trump to reject calls to impose a diesel export ban after the president said he was weighing this move in an effort to bring down rising fuel costs. Over 30 groups urged the president in a letter to “reject calls to ban or otherwise limit…93%match89¢+1%
Chamber of Commerce, oil groups urge Trump to reject diesel export ban
Live: White House backs away from diesel export ban as Iran war keeps fuel prices high
Live: White House backs away from diesel export ban as Iran war keeps fuel prices high
Climate Forward Highlights: Energy Secretary Dismisses Idea of Diesel Export Ban
Climate Forward Highlights: Energy Secretary Dismisses Idea of Diesel Export Ban
Politico: Trump administration considering diesel export ban
Politico: Trump administration considering diesel export ban
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, the White House, a Cabinet member, an agency or department legally authorized to take such action, or an authorized representative thereof, publicly and officially announces a ban on the export of diesel from the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, a "ban on the export of diesel" means a prohibition on the exportation of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the United States, whether imposed on all exports or on substantially all exports. A restriction, quota, tariff, licensing requirement, destination-specific ban, or other limitation short of an export prohibition will not qualify unless it operates as a general prohibition on diesel exports. A prohibition may qualify whether it is temporary or permanent, provided the announcement clearly communicates a prohibition on diesel exports.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the U.S. government's present implementation of, previously-unannounced prior implementation of, or definitive decision to implement a ban on the export of diesel.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify a ban on the export of diesel. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe such a ban, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the ban by name, provided the substance of a prohibition on diesel exports is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
An announcement by the U.S. government that it accepts or agrees to an agreement, framework, or roadmap that includes a commitment to ban diesel exports qualifies only if (i) all parties whose acceptance is required for the agreement to take effect have accepted the agreement, or (ii) the announcement independently communicates the ban as a present and decided position of the United States, not contingent on acceptance by any other party.
The following do not qualify as official announcements:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the U.S. government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States will announce or implement such a ban;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications;
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional implementation of such a ban rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether a ban on diesel exports is ever actually implemented.
Resolution will be based on official information from the U.S. government or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.