TN-05 Republican Primary Winner

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This hub tracks 6 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

Charlie Hatcher wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Tennessee's 5th Congressional District over GOP TN Rep Andy Ogles
Andy OglesFox Reporter98%match100¢
Charlie Hatcher wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Tennessee's 5th Congressional District over GOP TN Rep Andy Ogles
Andy Oglesms.now97%match100¢
Backed by Trump, Rep. Andy Ogles loses Tennessee GOP House primary
Andy Oglesnypost.com97%match100¢
Rep. Andy Ogles loses Tennessee’s Republican primary after dramatic district reshape
Andy Oglescbsnews.com96%match100¢
Trump-endorsed Rep. Andy Ogles projected to lose GOP primary in Tennessee
Andy OglesNBC Reporter96%match100¢
Trump-backed Rep. Andy Ogles loses his Republican primary in Tennessee
Rep. Andy Ogles, the controversial hard-right Republican backed by Trump, loses primary bid to former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, CNN projects • • While most of Trump’s picks tend to win in primaries, Ogles is one of several Trump-backed candidates to lose this cycle — including governor’s races in Iowa and Georgia and a Michigan House race this week
Andy OglesCNN Reporter96%match100¢
Rep. Andy Ogles, the controversial hard-right Republican backed by Trump, loses primary bid to former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, CNN projects • • While most of Trump’s picks tend to win in primaries, Ogles is one of several Trump-backed candidates to lose this cycle — including governor’s races in Iowa and Georgia and a Michigan House race this week
BREAKING: • • Trump-endorsed Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee just lost his Republican primary. • • WASHINGTON (AP) — Charlie Hatcher wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Tennessee's 5th Congressional District.
BREAKING: • • Trump-endorsed Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee just lost his Republican primary. • • WASHINGTON (AP) — Charlie Hatcher wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Tennessee's 5th Congressional District.
Rep. Andy Ogles defeated by former Tennessee Ag Commissioner Charlie Hatcher. Ogles had been endorsed by President Trump. Hatcher had been endorsed by Gov. Bill Lee. One of the issues is that the newly redrawn Fifth Congressional District is mostly farm land. And most folks in West Tennessee -- including Memphis - did not know Ogles. But they knew the former Ag commissioner.
Rep. Andy Ogles defeated by former Tennessee Ag Commissioner Charlie Hatcher. Ogles had been endorsed by President Trump. Hatcher had been endorsed by Gov. Bill Lee. One of the issues is that the newly redrawn Fifth Congressional District is mostly farm land. And most folks in West Tennessee -- including Memphis - did not know Ogles. But they knew the former Ag commissioner.
Andy OglesNBC Reporter93%match100¢
Andy Ogles proposed to rewrite the 22nd Amendment in a very specific way to let Trump — but not Obama — have a third term. He ran with Trump’s endorsement. He just lost his Republican primary.
Big news: GOP Rep. Andy Ogles ousted in Tennessee primary • • Both President Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson tried to boost his campaign in the final days • • GOP Gov. Bill Lee, a renewable energy PAC and a flood of outside $ helped take him down. • • via @politico
Andy Oglesnytimes.com95%match100¢
In Upset, Andy Ogles Loses to a Republican Challenger in Tennessee
REP. ANDY OGLES, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, loses his primary.
Andy OglesAxios Reporter97%match100¢
NEW: GOP Rep. Andy Ogles unseated in his primary
Andy Oglespolitico.com97%match100¢
GOP Rep. Andy Ogles ousted in Tennessee primary
Charlie HatcherAPws98%match100¢
WASHINGTON (AP) — Charlie Hatcher wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Tennessee's 5th Congressional District
Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) will lose reelection to primary challenger Charlie Hatcher, CNN projects #TN05
Andy OglesCNN Reporter98%match100¢
Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) will lose reelection to primary challenger Charlie Hatcher, CNN projects #TN05
Andy OglesNBC Reporter97%match100¢
Rep. Andy Ogles loses his Republican primary in Tennessee
Andy Oglesnbcnews.com97%match100¢
Live: Rep. Andy Ogles loses his Republican primary in Tennessee
Andy Oglesnbcnews.com97%match100¢
Rep. Andy Ogles loses his Republican primary in Tennessee
With roughly 70% of votes counted, Rep. Andy Ogles is losing by 6 points to Charlie Hatcher, Tennessee’s former ag commissioner. We chronicled the chatter anticipating the loss, including last minute help by HFCers yesterday:
Andy OglesPuck Reporter97%match98¢+2%
With roughly 70% of votes counted, Rep. Andy Ogles is losing by 6 points to Charlie Hatcher, Tennessee’s former ag commissioner. We chronicled the chatter anticipating the loss, including last minute help by HFCers yesterday:
Decision Desk HQ projects Charlie Hatcher wins the Tennessee US House 5 Republican Primary • • #DecisionMade: 9:36 PM EDT
DDHQ Race Update (est. 60% in): Tennessee US House 5 Republican Primary • • Charlie Hatcher (R): 26,302 • (52.7%) • Andy Ogles (R): 23,581 • (47.3%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 60% in): Tennessee US House 5 Republican Primary • • Charlie Hatcher (R): 26,302 • (52.7%) • Andy Ogles (R): 23,581 • (47.3%) • • Follow more results here: •
Andy Oglestheguardian.com97%match59¢+69%
Live: Trump-backed Tennessee congressman Andy Ogles trails in Republican primary

What is this event about?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 6, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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