TN-05 Republican Primary WinnerCharlie Hatcher
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$55Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
15 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Charlie Hatcher wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Tennessee's 5th Congressional District over GOP TN Rep Andy Ogles
Rep. Andy Ogles, the controversial hard-right Republican backed by Trump, loses primary bid to former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, CNN projects • • While most of Trump’s picks tend to win in primaries, Ogles is one of several Trump-backed candidates to lose this cycle — including governor’s races in Iowa and Georgia and a Michigan House race this week
BREAKING: • • Trump-endorsed Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee just lost his Republican primary. • • WASHINGTON (AP) — Charlie Hatcher wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Tennessee's 5th Congressional District.
Rep. Andy Ogles defeated by former Tennessee Ag Commissioner Charlie Hatcher. Ogles had been endorsed by President Trump. Hatcher had been endorsed by Gov. Bill Lee. One of the issues is that the newly redrawn Fifth Congressional District is mostly farm land. And most folks in West Tennessee -- including Memphis - did not know Ogles. But they knew the former Ag commissioner.
YESAPws98%match100¢
WASHINGTON (AP) — Charlie Hatcher wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Tennessee's 5th Congressional District
Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) will lose reelection to primary challenger Charlie Hatcher, CNN projects #TN05
With roughly 70% of votes counted, Rep. Andy Ogles is losing by 6 points to Charlie Hatcher, Tennessee’s former ag commissioner. We chronicled the chatter anticipating the loss, including last minute help by HFCers yesterday:
Decision Desk HQ projects Charlie Hatcher wins the Tennessee US House 5 Republican Primary • • #DecisionMade: 9:36 PM EDT
DDHQ Race Update (est. 60% in): Tennessee US House 5 Republican Primary • • Charlie Hatcher (R): 26,302 • (52.7%) • Andy Ogles (R): 23,581 • (47.3%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 56% in): Tennessee US House 5 Republican Primary • • Charlie Hatcher (R): 24,386 (52.5%) • Andy Ogles (R): 22,064 (47.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
DDHQ Race Update (est. 46% in): Tennessee US House 5 Republican Primary • • Charlie Hatcher (R): 20,144 (52.5%) • Andy Ogles (R): 18,194 (47.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
With about a quarter of the vote in, Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) trails his primary challenger, former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, by 3 points #TN05
Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee goes on camera to endorse Charlie Hatcher, Rep. Andy Ogles' challenger in Thursday's primary: #TN05
Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee goes on camera to endorse Charlie Hatcher, Rep. Andy Ogles' challenger in Thursday's primary: #TN05
As I reported last week, Rep. Andy Ogles is facing serious peril in his primary. • • Charlie Hatcher, the former state ag commissioner, has out-raised the incumbent, has a huge outside $ advantage and is polling within the margin of error. • •
Where does the news lean?
18YES1NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 6, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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See all outcomes for TN-05 Republican Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.