TN-05 Republican Primary WinnerAndy Ogles
ResolvedOutcome: No$74Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
28 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Charlie Hatcher wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Tennessee's 5th Congressional District over GOP TN Rep Andy Ogles
Backed by Trump, Rep. Andy Ogles loses Tennessee GOP House primary
Rep. Andy Ogles loses Tennessee’s Republican primary after dramatic district reshape
Trump-endorsed Rep. Andy Ogles projected to lose GOP primary in Tennessee
Trump-backed Rep. Andy Ogles loses his Republican primary in Tennessee
Rep. Andy Ogles, the controversial hard-right Republican backed by Trump, loses primary bid to former Tennessee Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, CNN projects • • While most of Trump’s picks tend to win in primaries, Ogles is one of several Trump-backed candidates to lose this cycle — including governor’s races in Iowa and Georgia and a Michigan House race this week
BREAKING: • • Trump-endorsed Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee just lost his Republican primary. • • WASHINGTON (AP) — Charlie Hatcher wins Republican nomination for U.S. House in Tennessee's 5th Congressional District.
Rep. Andy Ogles defeated by former Tennessee Ag Commissioner Charlie Hatcher. Ogles had been endorsed by President Trump. Hatcher had been endorsed by Gov. Bill Lee. One of the issues is that the newly redrawn Fifth Congressional District is mostly farm land. And most folks in West Tennessee -- including Memphis - did not know Ogles. But they knew the former Ag commissioner.
Andy Ogles proposed to rewrite the 22nd Amendment in a very specific way to let Trump — but not Obama — have a third term. He ran with Trump’s endorsement. He just lost his Republican primary.
Big news: GOP Rep. Andy Ogles ousted in Tennessee primary • • Both President Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson tried to boost his campaign in the final days • • GOP Gov. Bill Lee, a renewable energy PAC and a flood of outside $ helped take him down. • • via @politico
In Upset, Andy Ogles Loses to a Republican Challenger in Tennessee
REP. ANDY OGLES, a member of the House Freedom Caucus, loses his primary.
NEW: GOP Rep. Andy Ogles unseated in his primary
GOP Rep. Andy Ogles ousted in Tennessee primary
Rep. Andy Ogles (R-TN) will lose reelection to primary challenger Charlie Hatcher, CNN projects #TN05
Rep. Andy Ogles loses his Republican primary in Tennessee
Live: Rep. Andy Ogles loses his Republican primary in Tennessee
Rep. Andy Ogles loses his Republican primary in Tennessee
With roughly 70% of votes counted, Rep. Andy Ogles is losing by 6 points to Charlie Hatcher, Tennessee’s former ag commissioner. We chronicled the chatter anticipating the loss, including last minute help by HFCers yesterday:
DDHQ Race Update (est. 60% in): Tennessee US House 5 Republican Primary • • Charlie Hatcher (R): 26,302 • (52.7%) • Andy Ogles (R): 23,581 • (47.3%) • • Follow more results here: •
Live: Trump-backed Tennessee congressman Andy Ogles trails in Republican primary
DDHQ Race Update (est. 56% in): Tennessee US House 5 Republican Primary • • Charlie Hatcher (R): 24,386 (52.5%) • Andy Ogles (R): 22,064 (47.5%) • • Follow more results here: •
Andy Ogles still trailing in his primary, despite Trump re-upping his endorsement today. • • Would be a blow to the Ogles effort to amend the constitution so that Trump (but not Obama) can seek a third term.
56% of the vote in, and Andy Ogles continues to trail in his primary: • • Hatcher 52.5% • Ogles 47.5
Congressman Andy Ogles is doing a fantastic job representing the incredible people of Tennessee’s 5th Congressional District! Andy is a Conservative Warrior who has strong support from his Community. In Congress, he is fighting tirelessly to Grow our Economy, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A. and American Energy DOMINANCE, Safeguard our Elections, Keep our Border SECURE, Stop Migrant Crime, Strengthen our Military/Veterans, and Defend our always under siege Second Amendment. Andy Ogles my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election. Election Day for the Republican Primary is TODAY. GET OUT AND VOTE FOR ANDY – HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN! Find your Voting Location here:
As I reported last week, Rep. Andy Ogles is facing serious peril in his primary. • • Charlie Hatcher, the former state ag commissioner, has out-raised the incumbent, has a huge outside $ advantage and is polling within the margin of error. • •
Inside the $2 million effort to oust Rep. Andy Ogles in his Republican primary
NEW: Poll from super PAC targeting Rep. Andy Ogles has him up just 4pts w/ likely voters in his GOP primary. • • Ogles - 37% • Hatcher - 33% • • The PAC is spending another $700k in the last week of the race, @axios has learned. $2M total. • • w/ @tnnaterau
Where does the news lean?
3YES32NO2neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 6, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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See all outcomes for TN-05 Republican Primary Winner — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.