Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
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Market pricing makes Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? the favorite at 3%, as of .
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The state-run Mehr news agency reported that since August 21, the Islamic Republic's armed forces have prevented 30 vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and during this period, limited vessel traffic has only been allowed via routes approved by the Islamic Republic, with coordination and payment of tolls.
Armed Forces Prevent 30 Violating Vessels from Illegally Passing Through the Strait of Hormuz According to information received by Mehr reporter, since August 19, 30 violating vessels have attempted to illegally pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been prevented by the Iranian armed forces. Based on this information, during this period of time, traffic is limited to the route approved by the Islamic Republic of Iran, with coordination and payment of tolls. Also, before the start of the Ramadan War in January 1404, more than 1,500 oil tankers and 1,700 commercial ships passed through this route, which indicates a serious halt in traffic and trade under the current circumstances. The claims made about minesweeping cannot be confirmed with any data, and the American side has not yet provided any documentation in this regard. Also, the claims made about the amount of Oil exports lack a documented basis and appear to be carried out within the framework of the American media war to influence global markets, especially in the energy sector. mehrnews.com @Mehrnews
The average daily number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from 100 before the war to 7.
Al Jazeera: Average number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from 100 before the war to 7 per day/59% of US strategic reserves are empty @iribnews
Goldman Sachs claims: Oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to about two-thirds of pre-war levels Total crude oil and oil product exports from the region have increased to 15 to 16 million barrels per day; but are still 7 to 8 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels / Selection
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic remains low amid US-Iran standoff
Six months after the start of the war, trade in the Strait of Hormuz has declined by 85%, and an Iranian closure in response to US-Israeli strikes is strangling a waterway that once handled a fifth of the world's oil and gas exports.
Six months since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz... Shipping traffic has declined by approximately 85%, from 95 to 15 ships daily, and thousands of sailors await safe passage through one of the world's most vital energy and trade arteries. #FromTheEvent
Data: Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz below the 10-day average #Here_is_the_Kingdom
Six months since the start of the Middle East war, the strategic Strait of Hormuz remains largely paralysed, with thousands of sailors still stranded in the Gulf and commodity carrier traffic way below its normal level. •
After the number of transiting vessels dropped from six to one, shipping data shows cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in three months.
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Shipping data from Kpler: Cargo vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in 3 months
The number of merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a new low in more than three months.
Live: Strait of Hormuz ship traffic drops to single vessel on Monday
Shipping data: Cargo vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz falls to its lowest level in 3 months
Reuters reports: Cargo ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to its lowest level in over three months.
Shipping data: Cargo ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz fell to its lowest level in three months.
Guterres: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has almost stopped UN Secretary-General: Only in the Strait of Hormuz, traffic has almost completely stopped. Attacks and disruptions to maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea have limited the movement of energy, fertilizer and other essential goods. @YjcNewsChannel
New York Post: Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz weakens as shipping traffic surges by nearly 400% in two weeks under US protection ====== The New York Post reported that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz appears to be waning. The newspaper revealed that shipping traffic in this vital waterway has increased by nearly 400% in the past two weeks, coinciding with more ships using a transit route under US protection. The report revealed that approximately 200 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz last week, compared to about 150 the week before, and only 40 two weeks prior. Shipping traffic in the strait has reached about 20% of its pre-war level. Under normal circumstances, about 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. From Al Arabiya
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz skyrockets nearly 400%, as analysts say Iran's grip on critical waterway weakens
Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz skyrockets nearly 400%, as analysts say Iran’s grip on critical waterway weakens
Live: Hormuz traffic this week is 20% of pre-war average, US says "oil is flowing"
Live: Commercial traffic through Strait of Hormuz remains at 20 percent of pre-war levels, report reveals
Live: Strait of Hormuz traffic this week was 20% of pre-war average, though US says "oil is flowing"
UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 4% of pre-conflict levels. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to 4% of pre-conflict levels @YjcNewsChannel
After the start of Trump's economic operation: Ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz was reduced yesterday to only a few ships, Reuters reported.
Reuters: Data shows that ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has decreased compared to the previous day and remains in single digits.
Shipping data: Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has not increased in the past 24 hours.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for September 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.